ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
May not become Alex until it has passed Florida Saturday night/Sunday when the relative shear decreases due to its NE acceleration.
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skyline385
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
GCANE wrote:Latest recon fix puts it more into the convection.
12Z GFS also had the center relocate to below the convection blob
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Let's see what the current recon finds. It's almost there.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
wxman57 wrote:Let's see what the current recon finds. It's almost there.
Probably nothing, looks a lot worse now than this morning.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Not a good outlook from SSD dvorak.
A. 01L (NONAME)
B. 03/1731Z
C. 21.8N
D. 86.8W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...ILL-DEFINED CENTER IS MORE THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL
COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET
AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE AS SYSTEM WAS OVER LAND 24 HOURS AGO. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
B. 03/1731Z
C. 21.8N
D. 86.8W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...ILL-DEFINED CENTER IS MORE THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL
COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET
AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE AS SYSTEM WAS OVER LAND 24 HOURS AGO. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
The only thing new on the 18z Best Track is the position.
AL, 01, 2022060318, , BEST, 0, 227N, 863W, 35, 1003, DB
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MGC
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Old CC is toast. New one might be forming closer to convection. Storm is a mess......MGC
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
cycloneye wrote:Not a good outlook from SSD dvorak.A. 01L (NONAME)
B. 03/1731Z
C. 21.8N
D. 86.8W
E. FIVE/GOES-E
F. T1.0/1.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...ILL-DEFINED CENTER IS MORE THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL
COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET
AND PT ARE NOT AVAILABLE AS SYSTEM WAS OVER LAND 24 HOURS AGO. FT IS
BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
21.8N/86.8W, that LLC is gone... If there is any circulation it's near 23.5N/86W...
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
South Florida is about 2 center reformations shy of a nice weekend
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
It did look better this morning. Looks like no Alex until it moves past Florida. Rain should end in Florida by noon tomorrow. 3/4 of a good weekend.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Seems like the window for intensification after Florida is closing, with models leaning towards a quicker subtropical transition as opposed to yesterday’s solutions. We might have to wait a few more weeks until our first named storm.
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Sciencerocks
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Craters
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
aspen wrote:Seems like the window for intensification after Florida is closing, with models leaning towards a quicker subtropical transition as opposed to yesterday’s solutions. We might have to wait a few more weeks until our first named storm.
Fine with me. If this season's anywhere near being like the last two, there's going to be plenty of excitement for everybody down the road...
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
aspen wrote:Seems like the window for intensification after Florida is closing, with models leaning towards a quicker subtropical transition as opposed to yesterday’s solutions. We might have to wait a few more weeks until our first named storm.
May be a backloaded season.
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Wait so now there's a chance that PTC1 won't become even a NS? I thought the NHC was still anticipating that to happen at some point?
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
[youtube]https://youtu.be/MwBejFpQ5Fw[/youtube]
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
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galaxy401
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Despite some doubts the NHC still has this at a 90% chance to develop. Shear is still too relentless in this area though.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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