2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1534176336889233408

Definitely a concerning trend with the CSU,ECMWF hyperactive forecasts AND the track into the lesser antilies..BUT I am still not ready to hop onto the hyperactive train yet, the MDR will continue to cool for the next 2 weeks before we see some sustained warming until the end of June- Early July. I believe July will tell us a lot,2005,2017,2020 ALL had active MDRs during the month of July coupled with strong AEWS. If the MDR warms more than usual then look out but right now I think "just" above average is the best bet. Hyperactivity in the Atlantic is a rarity for a reason

It is really odd that so many models seem to be pointing towards hyperactivity but the current SST just do not support that anywhere, especially when you compare them to previous hyperactive years.

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1534176336889233408

Definitely a concerning trend with the CSU,ECMWF hyperactive forecasts AND the track into the lesser antilies..BUT I am still not ready to hop onto the hyperactive train yet, the MDR will continue to cool for the next 2 weeks before we see some sustained warming until the end of June- Early July. I believe July will tell us a lot,2005,2017,2020 ALL had active MDRs during the month of July coupled with strong AEWS. If the MDR warms more than usual then look out but right now I think "just" above average is the best bet. Hyperactivity in the Atlantic is a rarity for a reason

It is really odd that so many models seem to be pointing towards hyperactivity but the current SST just do not support that anywhere, especially when you compare them to previous hyperactive years.

Either it will warm or the forecasts will bust. Those are basically the two options haha

[NotSparta]

Even on his own site, subtropics have warmed up during May

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220607/40717913605be0f333c10dedb1760f85.jpg

That's the problem with graphs. All that warming is where the NMME did not show cooling from last month's forecast

[skyline385]

Even on his own site, subtropics have warmed up during May

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220607/40717913605be0f333c10dedb1760f85.jpg

That's the problem with graphs. All that warming is where the NMME did not show cooling from last month's forecast

Between 30-45W where the NMME shows the most cooling, there is significant warming 30N and above in the last two weeks. For the region below 30N, it has pretty much remained the same. We might end up with the a warmer MDR but the current trends simply don't show it.

[SFLcane]

Even on his own site, subtropics have warmed up during May

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220607/40717913605be0f333c10dedb1760f85.jpg

That's the problem with graphs. All that warming is where the NMME did not show cooling from last month's forecast

Between 30-45W where the NMME shows the most cooling, there is significant warming 30N and above in the last two weeks. For the region below 30N, it has pretty much remained the same. We might end up with the a warmer MDR but the current trends simply don't show it.

Its early June we have nearly 60 days if not more for Aug 20 when the cv season starts. I certainly think there is time for significant warming.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

That's the problem with graphs. All that warming is where the NMME did not show cooling from last month's forecast

Between 30-45W where the NMME shows the most cooling, there is significant warming 30N and above in the last two weeks. For the region below 30N, it has pretty much remained the same. We might end up with the a warmer MDR but the current trends simply don't show it.

Its early June we have nearly 60 days if not more for Aug 20 when the cv season starts. I certainly think there is time for significant warming.

You especially have to account for any warming initiated by the onset of the WAM/ASW which typically kicks into full gear later this month.

[skyline385]

That's the problem with graphs. All that warming is where the NMME did not show cooling from last month's forecast

Between 30-45W where the NMME shows the most cooling, there is significant warming 30N and above in the last two weeks. For the region below 30N, it has pretty much remained the same. We might end up with the a warmer MDR but the current trends simply don't show it.

Its early June we have nearly 60 days if not more for Aug 20 when the cv season starts. I certainly think there is time for significant warming.

I agree with you that we have time for significant warming, July in particular will determine where we end up. However it is important to note that we are currently not trending towards the NMME output imo...

[toad strangler]

SST handwringing 101 in it's natural habitat

Seriously though, the WAM is modeled to be quite active which will in turn spit out those AEW's. For for the most part said AEW's marching out of an active WAM will move along generally westward regardless of SST's. This is the kind of year (projected) that we can end up with more waves than normal finding the Western half of the basin and then BOOM.

[SFLcane]

Between 30-45W where the NMME shows the most cooling, there is significant warming 30N and above in the last two weeks. For the region below 30N, it has pretty much remained the same. We might end up with the a warmer MDR but the current trends simply don't show it.

Its early June we have nearly 60 days if not more for Aug 20 when the cv season starts. I certainly think there is time for significant warming.

You especially have to account for any warming initiated by the onset of the WAM/ASW which typically kicks into full gear later this month.

It better if the Atlantic is gonna get there.

[AlphaToOmega]

Between 30-45W where the NMME shows the most cooling, there is significant warming 30N and above in the last two weeks. For the region below 30N, it has pretty much remained the same. We might end up with the a warmer MDR but the current trends simply don't show it.

Its early June we have nearly 60 days if not more for Aug 20 when the cv season starts. I certainly think there is time for significant warming.

I agree with you that we have time for significant warming, July in particular will determine where we end up. However it is important to note that we are currently not trending towards the NMME output imo...

The MDR has always warmed from May to September ever since 2012 due to WAM, and there is no reason to think that would stop with 2022.

[LemieT]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1534176336889233408

Definitely a concerning trend with the CSU,ECMWF hyperactive forecasts AND the track into the lesser antilies..BUT I am still not ready to hop onto the hyperactive train yet, the MDR will continue to cool for the next 2 weeks before we see some sustained warming until the end of June- Early July. I believe July will tell us a lot,2005,2017,2020 ALL had active MDRs during the month of July coupled with strong AEWS. If the MDR warms more than usual then look out but right now I think "just" above average is the best bet. Hyperactivity in the Atlantic is a rarity for a reason

This is basically the way I see it as well. I went active in my numbers for the poll but refrained from hyperactive train. Not seeing the parameters aligned just yet. Models cannot be discounted but I want to see some more evidence first. Like you said, The end of this month and July will let us know what's up.

[cycloneye]

Great thread 1/9. He goes hyper.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318312775098369




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318316004814848




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318319485976576




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318322984132610




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318326079447045




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318329900441601




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318333713162246




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318337311838208




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1534318339014664198

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1534343875082563585

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This hurricane season has me very concerned for Florida- We had that no name system hit the panhandle in May, and then Pre Alex flooded South Florida last week. These early season tracks indicate persistent gulf troughing and a ridge sufficient enough to push tropical waves to our longitude. This is very similar to what we experienced in 2004 in May/June.

[skyline385]

This hurricane season has me very concerned for Florida- We had that no name system hit the panhandle in May, and then Pre Alex flooded South Florida last week. These early season tracks indicate persistent gulf troughing and a ridge sufficient enough to push tropical waves to our longitude. This is very similar to what we experienced in 2004 in May/June.

2004 had the first storm on July 31 though

[Nuno]

This hurricane season has me very concerned for Florida- We had that no name system hit the panhandle in May, and then Pre Alex flooded South Florida last week. These early season tracks indicate persistent gulf troughing and a ridge sufficient enough to push tropical waves to our longitude. This is very similar to what we experienced in 2004 in May/June.

2004 had the first storm on July 31 though

I think Tampa Bay Hurricane means that the general set up is similar to 2004 in early summer despite not having had a named storm until 7/31. Technically florida hasn't had a named storm landfall yet either so far

Also, SSTs will be warm enough to support a hyperactive season if the conditions warrant it. SSTs are the least of the problems any forming cyclones may face during most NATL seasons when compared to stability, dry air, shear, etc.

[cycloneye]

July will be the key month to see where all the factors stand and see if 2022 will be active but not hyperactive or will be the contrary.

[SFLcane]

This hurricane season has me very concerned for Florida- We had that no name system hit the panhandle in May, and then Pre Alex flooded South Florida last week. These early season tracks indicate persistent gulf troughing and a ridge sufficient enough to push tropical waves to our longitude. This is very similar to what we experienced in 2004 in May/June.

Yeah but that's just June climo. Doesn't really say anything about tracks later. 2004 didn't have anything here early.

[SFLcane]

This hurricane season has me very concerned for Florida- We had that no name system hit the panhandle in May, and then Pre Alex flooded South Florida last week. These early season tracks indicate persistent gulf troughing and a ridge sufficient enough to push tropical waves to our longitude. This is very similar to what we experienced in 2004 in May/June.

2004 had the first storm on July 31 though

I think Tampa Bay Hurricane means that the general set up is similar to 2004 in early summer despite not having had a named storm until 7/31. Technically florida hasn't had a named storm landfall yet either so far

Also, SSTs will be warm enough to support a hyperactive season if the conditions warrant it. SSTs are the least of the problems any forming cyclones may face during most NATL seasons when compared to stability, dry air, shear, etc.

Similar how?

The 500-mb pattern is rather different

[SFLcane]

Taken a glance at long range guidance this morning the Euro/CFS are showing a pattern that avoids Florida. Its early so we will see if that changes