2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[cycloneye]

Taken a glance at long range guidance this morning the Euro/CFS are showing a pattern that avoids Florida. Its early so we will see if that changes

JB is very different.

Expert forecasts thread

[SFLcane]

Taken a glance at long range guidance this morning the Euro/CFS are showing a pattern that avoids Florida. Its early so we will see if that changes

JB is very different.

Expert forecasts thread

Hi Luis, yea joe hype aside is pretty good at picking out landfall areas so we will see and hope he is wrong.

[toad strangler]

Taken a glance at long range guidance this morning the Euro/CFS are showing a pattern that avoids Florida. Its early so we will see if that changes

I don't lend any credence either way to any of these models when it comes to showing 500mb setup or precipitation distribution. IMO That's getting too fine for these models to accurately depict.

[hurricane2025]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1534180880595439621

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1534180880595439621?s=21&t=5cP5Is61rtFvmW46Ex9ouQ

Thing is, there is little to no correlation between Gulf of Mexico SSTAs and seasonal activity. It would only affect storms that traverse the gulf, which of course is never guaranteed.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1534180880595439621?s=21&t=5cP5Is61rtFvmW46Ex9ouQ

Thing is, there is little to no correlation between Gulf of Mexico SSTAs and seasonal activity. It would only affect storms that traverse the gulf, which of course is never guaranteed.

Was thinking the same, it's disappointing to see such posts from actual mets.

Edit: just saw that Alex called him out on it lol

[FireRat]

Crazy how things keep pointing to a dangerous and extremely busy season, so consistently.

The stage is set, and SSTs would be just one factor, in fact the waters don't even need to be that abnormally warm for powerful hurricanes to form in the MDR. It wouldn't surprise me if we did get several monsters traversing the MDR like 1996 for example, and with a pace almost 2020-like. Crazy times we live in!

[hurricane2025]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1534615835993460736

[skyline385]

Just a couple systems near peninsular FL

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1534639047569727489

[Deshaunrob17]

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1534180880595439621?s=21&t=5cP5Is61rtFvmW46Ex9ouQ

Thing is, there is little to no correlation between Gulf of Mexico SSTAs and seasonal activity. It would only affect storms that traverse the gulf, which of course is never guaranteed.

Was thinking the same, it's disappointing to see such posts from actual mets.

Edit: just saw that Alex called him out on it lol

I think he was just trying say that storms that pass through the gulf will have to be watched closely because of all that anomalous warmth

[USTropics]

Thing is, there is little to no correlation between Gulf of Mexico SSTAs and seasonal activity. It would only affect storms that traverse the gulf, which of course is never guaranteed.

Was thinking the same, it's disappointing to see such posts from actual mets.

Edit: just saw that Alex called him out on it lol

I think he was just trying say that storms that pass through the gulf will have to be watched closely because of all that anomalous warmth

The intent was a bit ambiguous but he is well aware GOM SSTa have little to no correlation to seasonal activity/ACE. Much of the GOM is subject to local variations that can cause quick swings in SSTa in this region. The saying "the GOM is always warm enough for hurricanes" is particularly true this season, especially if you consider all the other factors (see Eric Webb tweet above).

MDR season begins mid-August, it's still to be determined how warm the MDR becomes. I for one am hoping for significant warming; it's statistically higher for systems that form in the MDR and become potent cyclones to recurve. With La Nina and forecasted low shear in the Caribbean and GOM, a more western based season could be in the cards if the MDR remains more neutral in SSTa/stability.

[skyline385]

An actual non-bullish thread finally explaining the potential shortcomings of the ECMWF forecast

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1534658455084089344

[Kingarabian]

We'll see how the MDR looks by July 5th. The model could be factoring in the extended period of relaxed trades over the MDR.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:
We'll see how the MDR looks by July 5th. The model could be factoring in the extended period of relaxed trades over the MDR.

When do the relaxed trades are forecast to begin in MDR?

[Cpv17]

Taken a glance at long range guidance this morning the Euro/CFS are showing a pattern that avoids Florida. Its early so we will see if that changes

JB is very different.

Expert forecasts thread

Well according to that, the western Gulf where I’m at doesn’t look to have much concern. That’s basically just an average season for us.

[skyline385]

:uarrow:
We'll see how the MDR looks by July 5th. The model could be factoring in the extended period of relaxed trades over the MDR.

Aren't the relaxed trades forecast only in the western MDR? Additionally, we also have some warming going around Nino 3-3.4

[DorkyMcDorkface]

:uarrow:
We'll see how the MDR looks by July 5th. The model could be factoring in the extended period of relaxed trades over the MDR.

Aren't the relaxed trades forecast only in the western MDR? Additionally, we also have some warming going around Nino 3-3.4

https://i.imgur.com/fMxWKiv.png

The recent warming of the 3.4 region is only temporary (and ultimately insignificant in the grand scheme of things), with the La Niña base state solidly entrenched there likely won't be any room for additional CCKWs to propagate across the Pacific and spark anomalous westerlies. The hovmoller you just posted pretty much shows that, with easterly wind bursts returning the the Central Pacific, but you can also see the cause of that here with the VP anomalies. Niña standing wave returns to the Pacific (and African Standing Wave becomes prevalent) which is what will induce further EWBs and in all likelihood knock SSTAs in the Niño regions back down again.



As for the MDR, easterlies are forecast for the next few days which should negatively affect SSTs for the time being but we are likely going to see sustained westerly anoms in the tropical Atlantic beginning soon as the WAM begins to take effect.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1534682828679561216

[Category5Kaiju]

:uarrow:
We'll see how the MDR looks by July 5th. The model could be factoring in the extended period of relaxed trades over the MDR.

Aren't the relaxed trades forecast only in the western MDR? Additionally, we also have some warming going around Nino 3-3.4

https://i.imgur.com/fMxWKiv.png

The recent warming of the 3.4 region is only temporary (and ultimately insignificant in the grand scheme of things), with the La Niña base state solidly entrenched there likely won't be any room for additional CCKWs to propagate across the Pacific and spark anomalous westerlies. The hovmoller you just posted pretty much shows that, with easterly wind bursts returning the the Central Pacific, but you can also see the cause of that here with the VP anomalies. Niña standing wave returns to the Pacific (and African Standing Wave becomes prevalent) which is what will induce further EWBs and in all likelihood knock SSTAs in the Niño regions back down again.
https://i.ibb.co/5MxwGmv/ezgif-com-gif-maker-13.gif
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/streaming/20220608-2050/98/ps2png-worker-commands-74f867f5b9-dtn5m-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-jRgtBk.png

As for the MDR, easterlies are forecast for the next few days which should negatively affect SSTs for the time being but we are likely going to see sustained westerly anoms in the tropical Atlantic beginning soon as the WAM begins to take effect.

I think the key here is that it's simply too late in the year for the EPAC to fully recover to +ENSO territory, especially given how this La Nina actually managed to strengthen a tad bit during the last few months or so. By ASO, there's very little doubt that we will be in -ENSO territory, and if anything, I'd have to imagine that it having a rather good chance of being weak would certainly not bode well for the Atlantic given how weak La Nina states seem to be commonly associated with very impactful seasons.

I will also mention this, but I have noticed that the WPAC has been unusually quiet the past months, with models barely showing anything major brewing anytime soon. At least with some of the years being frequently compared to this year that were above average but not hyperactive Atlantic years (2008 and 2011 as examples), the WPAC already had more than 2 NSs by this time of the year, and 2022 at least in that regard seems to be quite a bit different, with a seemingly more unfavorable WPAC state

[AlphaToOmega]

I see no reason why the MDR would not warm from now to September; throughout every single season from 2012 to 2021, the MDR has warmed from May to September due to the WAM. The only recent year when MDR SSTAs were hostile for development was 2018, which had a full blown -AMM during ASO as well as a well-below-average MDR during May. Also, Gulf of Mexico SSTAs mean nothing at this point in time given that the Gulf of Mexico is very variable in terms of SSTAs.

People, for some reason, seem to be more focused on current patterns than ASO patterns.