2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

I see no reason why the MDR would not warm from now to September; throughout every single season from 2012 to 2021, the MDR has warmed from May to September due to the WAM. The only recent year when MDR SSTAs were hostile for development was 2018, which had a full blown -AMM during ASO as well as a well-below-average MDR during May. Also, Gulf of Mexico SSTAs mean nothing at this point in time given that the Gulf of Mexico is very variable in terms of SSTAs.

People, for some reason, seem to be more focused on current patterns than ASO patterns.

There is no doubt that the MDR will warm, I don't think anyone is saying otherwise. The topic of discussion is whether it will warm enough to warrant the extremely hyperactive scenarios being forecast by some of the long range models.

[AlphaToOmega]

I see no reason why the MDR would not warm from now to September; throughout every single season from 2012 to 2021, the MDR has warmed from May to September due to the WAM. The only recent year when MDR SSTAs were hostile for development was 2018, which had a full blown -AMM during ASO as well as a well-below-average MDR during May. Also, Gulf of Mexico SSTAs mean nothing at this point in time given that the Gulf of Mexico is very variable in terms of SSTAs.

People, for some reason, seem to be more focused on current patterns than ASO patterns.

There is no doubt that the MDR will warm, I don't think anyone is saying otherwise. The topic of discussion is whether it will warm enough to warrant the extremely hyperactive scenarios being forecast by some of the long range models.

Something is certainly suspect about the ECMWF.

• The ECMWF shows a near-average MDR for ASO, which has never happened since 2018.
• Despite the near-average MDR, the ECMWF shows an ACE 170% of the 1993-2021 average (i.e. 218 ACE).

There is no way 218 ACE could be accomplished with the ECMWF's projected SSTA pattern. Even with an ideal SSTA pattern for ASO (Classic -ENSO, +AMM, +AMO, -PDO, and Atlantic Niña), 218 ACE is still very difficult to achieve.

[SFLcane]

Folks, all hype aside joe b is all in and is calling for what looks like 2004 2.0 for the Florida peninsula. I certainly will be doing some early preps considering our very own wxman57 is on the same page and for me personally this is quite concerning.

[toad strangler]

Folks, all hype aside joe b is all in and is calling for what looks like 2004 2.0 for the Florida peninsula. I certainly will be doing some early preps considering our very own wxman57 is on the same page and for me personally this is quite concerning.

Normally I would have already stocked up on treated gas. Every June 1st its a ritual. But no thanks at almost 5 bucks LOL

Anyway, SAL got a good kick start a couple weeks ago but has been pretty quiet since. I kinda just noticed there hasn't been much hand wringing on the subject.

[hurricane2025]

Folks, all hype aside joe b is all in and is calling for what looks like 2004 2.0 for the Florida peninsula. I certainly will be doing some early preps considering our very own wxman57 is on the same page and for me personally this is quite concerning.

Joe always hypes lol I love him though

[skyline385]

Folks, all hype aside joe b is all in and is calling for what looks like 2004 2.0 for the Florida peninsula. I certainly will be doing some early preps considering our very own wxman57 is on the same page and for me personally this is quite concerning.

Joe always hypes lol I love him though

Yea there are a ton of people on wxtwitter who love hyping up every season as the next historic season, i could easily name a few i know lol. Personally i get tired of the constant bullish doomsday forecasts but that's just me...

[Spacecoast]

Very large SAL outbreak on the way....




Plumes of dust from the Saharan desert are crossing the Atlantic and could arrive in Texas as early as this weekend, according to weather experts.
“A fresh supply of dust was airlifted from the Sahara in early June 2022, and some of it appeared to be headed for the Americas,” NASA said in a June 7 release.

[Patrick99]

Folks, all hype aside joe b is all in and is calling for what looks like 2004 2.0 for the Florida peninsula. I certainly will be doing some early preps considering our very own wxman57 is on the same page and for me personally this is quite concerning.

Joe B is actually saying that? I feel like he always just hypes up Mid-Atlantic and NE hurricane hits year after year, so I usually don't pay much attention.

[toad strangler]

Very large SAL outbreak on the way....
https://i.ibb.co/Fs4GLCt/sal.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/gzyHD5W/sala.jpg


Plumes of dust from the Saharan desert are crossing the Atlantic and could arrive in Texas as early as this weekend, according to weather experts.
“A fresh supply of dust was airlifted from the Sahara in early June 2022, and some of it appeared to be headed for the Americas,” NASA said in a June 7 release.

right on cue!

[SFLcane]

This is the conclusion from Joe Bastardi:

The Verdict

It is always dangerous to forecast off of a forecast, but when the forecast matches known analogs I have to take the attitude that If I see something I saw something. While the in-close rapid deepener still remains a concern this year, the big change here is there should be longer-tracked storms for the Caribbean and Bahamas and a spray of threats will put Florida as the center point. It's tempting to increase numbers, too, but I always consider that a moot point relative to the impact ideas, which is what we have been pioneering over the years. This looks to be ready to join the who's who of big hurricane years. The western Pacific is going the opposite way yet again, but the Atlantic will try to take up the global slack.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I have a terrible feeling something like Irma is gonna happen again later this season.

[skyline385]

I have a terrible feeling something like Irma is gonna happen again later this season.

Well you probably don't want to see this then (taken from Eric Webb's composites)

[captainbarbossa19]

I have a terrible feeling something like Irma is gonna happen again later this season.

I agree. Despite the possibility of cool neutral for JAS, this season reminds me much of 2017. To me, 2017 was more impressive to me compared to 2020 due to the intensity of storms like Irma and Maria.

[skyline385]

I have a terrible feeling something like Irma is gonna happen again later this season.

I agree. Despite the possibility of cool neutral for JAS, this season reminds me much of 2017. To me, 2017 was more impressive to me compared to 2020 due to the intensity of storms like Irma and Maria.

Irma still has one of the most perfect structures and appearances i have seen in the Atlantic basin, it was just an amazing storm unfortunate that it was so destructive as well.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This seems to be a primed season. Only thing lacking IMO is MDR SSTs. Plus, with the warm subtropical pool, we could see intense storms like Dorian and Florence outside of the MDR in the Atlantic.

[captainbarbossa19]

This seems to be a primed season. Only thing lacking IMO is MDR SSTs. Plus, with the warm subtropical pool, we could see intense storms like Dorian and Florence outside of the MDR in the Atlantic.

Right. If conditions are not very favorable in the MDR, we might see waves developing further west, which would likely place more land under threat. The SW Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will likely be hospitable for development even if the MDR is not.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1534960997261160448

[cycloneye]

The tracks.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1534933498930204673

[Spacecoast]

In the CSU June 2nd forecast, Phil K identified six analog years that have key environmental conditions which are similar to current May 2022 conditions and, more importantly, projected August–October 2022 conditions....

"Analog years for 2022 (generally characterized by cool neutral ENSO or
weak La Niña conditions and warmer than normal North Atlantic SSTs
during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season):"

1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011, & 2021

Here are the hurricane tracks for those six years:...


Total of 47 hurricanes, (27 of them were major hurricanes). Average of 7.8 hurricanes / year, and 4.5 major hurricane / year.
Interesting to note how many recurved and the number of NC landfalls.

[toad strangler]

In the CSU June 2nd forecast, Phil K identified six analog years that have key environmental conditions which are similar to current May 2022 conditions and, more importantly, projected August–October 2022 conditions....

"Analog years for 2022 (generally characterized by cool neutral ENSO or
weak La Niña conditions and warmer than normal North Atlantic SSTs
during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season):"

1996, 1999, 2000, 2008, 2011, & 2021

Here are the hurricane tracks for those six years:...
https://i.ibb.co/FDjPptv/anatracks.jpg

Total of 47 hurricanes, (27 of them were major hurricanes). Average of 7.8 hurricanes / year, and 4.5 major hurricane / year.
Interesting to note how many recurved and the number of NC landfalls.

Re-Curves off the SE US Coast are standard climo fair and I don’t think are attached to Niña or cool neutral ENSO years in any exclusive capacity. I mean that’s the Atlantic Basin I-95. It’s there nearly every year.

NC landfalls? Well it’s the “Cow Catcher” for a reason. It’s not the Niña Cow Catcher.

Just playing devils advocate. I firmly believe there is no correlation to specific tracks compared to similar base basin or global indicators. IMO 500mb is the key and can be extremely fluid no matter all the other indicators.