#167 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jun 09, 2022 8:45 am
From Jeff Lindner:
Mid and upper level ridge of high pressure will settle over Texas this weekend to produce a period of near record heat.
While it is always hot in SE TX in summer, the upcoming weekend will feature an early season heat wave. Mid and upper level high pressure will build over the southern plains through the weekend resulting in strong heating. Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will produce a SW/SSW low level wind, which is a “hot” wind for us locally instead of the “cooler” S or SE wind flow more directly off the “cooler” Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures will increase into the low 100’s for most areas away from the coast on Friday and last through at least Sunday and possible into early next week. Low temperatures will struggle to fall much below 80 at night and remain in the low 80’s along the coast. With the SW winds in the low levels, afternoon humidity values will mix out some allowing heat index numbers of 100-107 over the region. We will be right up against the threshold of heat advisory levels for this region of 108, and it is likely an advisory will be needed for Friday into the weekend.
High pressure will build ENE early next week into the Mid MS valley and this may be just far enough NE to cut a few degrees off the afternoon highs by Tuesday onward. Still be subsidence in place over the area, rain chances will be below 10% for the next 5-7 days.
June heat is somewhat different than August heat in the aspect that our bodies are not fully acclimated to the heat stress in early June versus late August. Take the proper heat precautions (plenty of fluids and frequent breaks if working outside).
2022 vs. 2011:
While it is easy to compare heat and drought to other instances in the past, our current heat and drought is far from what this region and state went through in 2011. Rainfall has been much more plentiful this spring than in 2011, and while some of the temperatures may be similar to the intensity of the heat thus far this year is not to the level of 2011. There are some similar comparisons to drought and heat of the summers of 1998, 1988, and 1980.
Climate:
Galveston is being Galveston again with the warm overnight lows which have become as much of a recent fixture as the very warm nearshore waters. Galveston has failed to fall below 83 degrees for the last 72 hours and the low yesterday was only 84 degrees which is 1 degree shy of the all-time high record low of 85 from last summer. It is not just Galveston either, Palacios has failed to fall below 82 since June 5 until this morning for a low of 80.6. These types of lows are more typical of August than June and directly tied to the nearshore water temperature which is warmer in August than June. This year however, nearshore water temperatures are already 83-85 along the coast. Additionally, gusty winds late into the evening have helped to prevent much of a temperature fall during the overnight hours. So while the temperatures along the coast are in the low to mid 90’s during the afternoon, it is unpleasantly warm in the overnight periods.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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it's just disgusting and of course with all the rain the humidity is gonna be brutal
