2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

This sort of thing has been said pretty much every season since 2013 and not once did it pan out.

This year and 2013 have so many differences already that I think it's fair to say that at this point a 2013-like bust for this year is almost certainly not likely to happen. These differences range from this year actually starting off in a firm La Nina phase (2013 was merely neutral and had no Nina forcing at any point in the season), to us already having a strong TS that nearly became a hurricane (Alex of course), to models such as CSU, Euro, and UKMET actually becoming more aggressive in terms of predicted activity instead of becoming slightly less bullish (in 2013, I believe it was CSU that first sort of caught the THC collapse idea and slightly revised their June numbers downward)...I can go on. Nothing is set in stone of course, but I personally view a 2013-level debacle to be rather slim. If anything, I would think predicting agencies would have learned from 2013 and would now incorporate elements that caused 2013 to fail so miserably into their seasonal forecasts.

[MHC Tracking]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

This sort of thing has been said pretty much every season since 2013 and not once did it pan out.

This year and 2013 have so many differences already that I think it's fair to say that at this point a 2013-like bust for this year is almost certainly not likely to happen. These differences range from this year actually starting off in a firm La Nina phase (2013 was merely neutral and had no Nina forcing at any point in the season), to us already having a strong TS that nearly became a hurricane (Alex of course), to models such as CSU, Euro, and UKMET actually becoming more aggressive in terms of predicted activity instead of becoming slightly less bullish (in 2013, I believe it was CSU that first sort of caught the THC collapse idea and slightly revised their June numbers downward)...I can go on. Nothing is set in stone of course, but I personally view a 2013-level debacle to be rather slim. If anything, I would think predicting agencies would have learned from 2013 and would now incorporate elements that caused 2013 to fail so miserably into their seasonal forecasts.

Absolutely agree, nothing indicates a "2013 repeat" so to speak and the nitpicking some bring to the table gets tiresome.

[skyline385]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

This sort of thing has been said pretty much every season since 2013 and not once did it pan out.

This year and 2013 have so many differences already that I think it's fair to say that at this point a 2013-like bust for this year is almost certainly not likely to happen. These differences range from this year actually starting off in a firm La Nina phase (2013 was merely neutral and had no Nina forcing at any point in the season), to us already having a strong TS that nearly became a hurricane (Alex of course), to models such as CSU, Euro, and UKMET actually becoming more aggressive in terms of predicted activity instead of becoming slightly less bullish (in 2013, I believe it was CSU that first sort of caught the THC collapse idea and slightly revised their June numbers downward)...I can go on. Nothing is set in stone of course, but I personally view a 2013-level debacle to be rather slim. If anything, I would think predicting agencies would have learned from 2013 and would now incorporate elements that caused 2013 to fail so miserably into their seasonal forecasts.

From what I understand the THC collapse in 2013 was also the first of its kind in modern records so it caught everyone off guard. And seeing that CSU almost lost its seasonal forecast funding entirely because of that bust, you can be sure they are not taking their eye off the Thermohaline Circulation for the foreseeable future.

[ThomasW]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

Almost 10 years ago and a lot of learning has taken place since that season. I don't buy the super hyper death wave season forecasts either but I don't think something like a 2013 will happen again any time soon.

I think you might have misinterpreted my comment, wasn't calling for a 2013 repeat or so at all. Just was saying there's a genuine chance this season doesn't live up to the hype of "Massive doom season" etc (let's hope it doesn't). Way too many uncertainties to even forecast hyperactivity at this point, let alone whatever some would have you believe is inbound.

[toad strangler]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

Almost 10 years ago and a lot of learning has taken place since that season. I don't buy the super hyper death wave season forecasts either but I don't think something like a 2013 will happen again any time soon.

I think you might have misinterpreted my comment, wasn't calling for a 2013 repeat or so at all. Just was saying there's a genuine chance this season doesn't live up to the hype of "Massive doom season" etc (let's hope it doesn't). Way too many uncertainties to even forecast hyperactivity at this point, let alone whatever some would have you believe is inbound.

Massive Doom Season? Has that come out of the mouths of any respected professional or amateur in the wx community? I don’t think so.

Anyway, High ACE does not correlate directly with landfalls. High ACE means a ton of sea days. That’s a good thing most of the time. So I ignore ACE forecasts for the most part and use it as a end of season curiosity.

[skyline385]

Almost 10 years ago and a lot of learning has taken place since that season. I don't buy the super hyper death wave season forecasts either but I don't think something like a 2013 will happen again any time soon.

I think you might have misinterpreted my comment, wasn't calling for a 2013 repeat or so at all. Just was saying there's a genuine chance this season doesn't live up to the hype of "Massive doom season" etc (let's hope it doesn't). Way too many uncertainties to even forecast hyperactivity at this point, let alone whatever some would have you believe is inbound.

Massive Doom Season? Has that come out of the mouths of any respected professional or amateur in the wx community? I don’t think so.

Anyway, High ACE does not correlate directly with landfalls. High ACE means a ton of sea days. That’s a good thing most of the time. So I ignore ACE forecasts for the most part and use it as a end of season curiosity.

2004, 2005, 2017 & 2020 would disagree on that.

I ignore the hyper bullish forecasts on wxtwitter as well but saying high ACE means a ton of sea days is not correct.

[Category5Kaiju]

There's also these, which does concern me *slightly* and were not something that I would have expected with the recent trades

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1536014254960168961

[MHC Tracking]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

Almost 10 years ago and a lot of learning has taken place since that season. I don't buy the super hyper death wave season forecasts either but I don't think something like a 2013 will happen again any time soon.

I think you might have misinterpreted my comment, wasn't calling for a 2013 repeat or so at all. Just was saying there's a genuine chance this season doesn't live up to the hype of "Massive doom season" etc (let's hope it doesn't). Way too many uncertainties to even forecast hyperactivity at this point, let alone whatever some would have you believe is inbound.

Please, cite some of these "many uncertainties"

[skyline385]

There's also these, which does concern me *slightly* and were not something that I would have expected with the recent trades

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1536014254960168961

https://i.imgur.com/f6Q8IZb.png

The graph shows an averaged anomaly of 0.2°C right now in the MDR, and its based off the slightly outdated 1980-2010 climo. I am guessing we are still around neutral temps. CDAS with its cold bias on TT still shows a negative MDR.

[Cpv17]

Almost 10 years ago and a lot of learning has taken place since that season. I don't buy the super hyper death wave season forecasts either but I don't think something like a 2013 will happen again any time soon.

I think you might have misinterpreted my comment, wasn't calling for a 2013 repeat or so at all. Just was saying there's a genuine chance this season doesn't live up to the hype of "Massive doom season" etc (let's hope it doesn't). Way too many uncertainties to even forecast hyperactivity at this point, let alone whatever some would have you believe is inbound.

Please, cite some of these "many uncertainties"

Well I mean ASO is still months away. Nothing is set in stone. You can have all the indicators you want pointing to a busy season but it doesn’t guarantee anything.

[toad strangler]

I think you might have misinterpreted my comment, wasn't calling for a 2013 repeat or so at all. Just was saying there's a genuine chance this season doesn't live up to the hype of "Massive doom season" etc (let's hope it doesn't). Way too many uncertainties to even forecast hyperactivity at this point, let alone whatever some would have you believe is inbound.

Massive Doom Season? Has that come out of the mouths of any respected professional or amateur in the wx community? I don’t think so.

Anyway, High ACE does not correlate directly with landfalls. High ACE means a ton of sea days. That’s a good thing most of the time. So I ignore ACE forecasts for the most part and use it as a end of season curiosity.

2004, 2005, 2017 & 2020 would disagree on that.

I ignore the hyper bullish forecasts on wxtwitter as well but saying high ACE means a ton of sea days is not correct.

Yes it is.

High ACE totals are generally racked up in the open ocean. Notice I didn’t say ALL ACE. There are always anomalies for sure. But my basic premise holds water. I don’t think you caught the context.

[Cpv17]

Massive Doom Season? Has that come out of the mouths of any respected professional or amateur in the wx community? I don’t think so.

Anyway, High ACE does not correlate directly with landfalls. High ACE means a ton of sea days. That’s a good thing most of the time. So I ignore ACE forecasts for the most part and use it as a end of season curiosity.

2004, 2005, 2017 & 2020 would disagree on that.

I ignore the hyper bullish forecasts on wxtwitter as well but saying high ACE means a ton of sea days is not correct.

Yes it is.

High ACE totals are generally racked up in the open ocean. Notice I didn’t say ALL ACE. There are always anomalies for sure. But my basic premise holds water. I don’t think you caught the context.

I don’t think either of you are wrong. You can get a high ACE either way.

[Category5Kaiju]

2004, 2005, 2017 & 2020 would disagree on that.

I ignore the hyper bullish forecasts on wxtwitter as well but saying high ACE means a ton of sea days is not correct.

Yes it is.

High ACE totals are generally racked up in the open ocean. Notice I didn’t say ALL ACE. There are always anomalies for sure. But my basic premise holds water. I don’t think you caught the context.

I don’t think either of you are wrong. You can get a high ACE either way.

Quite interestingly, with what this year is looking to possibly set up as, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point, our ACE jumps thanks to a Caribbean cruiser system. These types of systems typically don't get going until the ECAR (and not in the open MDR), but they are notorious for racking up ACE as we saw with storms like the 1932 Cuba storm, Allen, Gilbert, or Emily

[toad strangler]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

Almost 10 years ago and a lot of learning has taken place since that season. I don't buy the super hyper death wave season forecasts either but I don't think something like a 2013 will happen again any time soon.

Hazelton got jokes

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1536143223688765441

[Hammy]

Just going to say that this is how we all looked at 2013..."obvious hyperactive season" they said, "extremely dangerous season ahead"...look what panned out. Nothing is set in stone and I'm not buying any 180+ ACE forecasts at all yet.

Almost 10 years ago and a lot of learning has taken place since that season. I don't buy the super hyper death wave season forecasts either but I don't think something like a 2013 will happen again any time soon.

Hazelton got jokes

http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1536143223688765441?s=21&t=BAkXIGEYol0HthS3mKsRNA

Kind of amusing thought is this season is going for what 2013 would've been without the THC collapse. Andrea had a similar genesis setup--EPAC system crossing over and getting absorbed by the CAG--but both the EPAC storm and Atlantic storm were stronger than 2013.

Something notable is the entire basin was strong westerly shear at this point in 2013 (and much of the season for that matter), much of the subtropics is quiet while the shear is over the MDR--much more typical of what you see in June.

[cycloneye]

C3S is up.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536323844843180033




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536326169284468742

[InfernoFlameCat]

Man since 2016 seasons have been a doozy. And we are going to continue that.

[Nuno]

C3S is up.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536323844843180033

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536326169284468742

This is why the SST handwringing is so silly. The SSTs in the ATL are more than enough to support an active season and indictors continue to show this is as the likeliest outcome.

[skyline385]

C3S is up.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536323844843180033

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1536326169284468742

This is why the SST handwringing is so silly. The SSTs in the ATL are more than enough to support an active season and indictors continue to show this is as the likeliest outcome.

SSTs during the Hurricane season are always going to be sufficient to support Atlantic activity. I posted the SSTs around hurricane Andrew where almost the entire Atlantic was below normal and it still RI'ed.

However, there is still a correlation between SSTs and seasonal ACE which is also highlighted in the CSU forecasts. That's why people post SSTs and talk about them. I don't think anyone here is saying that hurricanes won't be forming in below normal SSTs but rather that it correlates to less seasonal activity.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1536338688984088577