2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

Also in all likelihood it’s showing multiple storms affecting Florida this season. Take as you wish

[skyline385]

I mean if you look at previous years plots you can see tons of spots where the graphic was horribly wrong. 2020 in particular should have been easy mode seeing the number of landfalls LA had and yet it was blue to dark blue.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220614/0cb3e20b2b77b44cf2c2e0b0f8a2633b.jpg

Sent from my LM-V405 using Tapatalk

2018 was spot-on for Florence and Michael.

2017’s NE Caribbean and 2019’s Bahamas forecasts verified very, VERY poorly.

There's 2-3 where it verified decently but there's just so many spots it got way wrong. Then there is the fact that the ECMWF SEAS5 was adjusted last year because it was underperforming. I mean the point I take from the graphic is that it's going to be an active season, but with so many errors in previous season I would not be pointing at Florida in particular. If you go back to 2020, it was a record breaking season yet this plot would make you think it was average. There is no indication of hyperactivity on it. The red spots near the Lesser Antilles are completely wrong as well.

EDIT: Looks like Richard also agrees on that

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1536476241276063744

[AlphaToOmega]

To me, this season still seems much more comparable to 2020 than to either 2017 or 2021 (or 2018 or 2019). The current and projected future SSTA patterns and WAM patterns seem more similar to those of 2020 than to those of 2017 or 2021 (or 2018 or 2019).

In terms of future SSTA/WAM patterns, 2022 seems like a very close, almost perfect, match of 2020. The classic La Nina is very likely going to stay throughout the autumn and winter of this year (which automatically makes using 2018 and 2019 shaky, at best), as well as the negative PDO (which 2017 did not have). On the Atlantic side, the positive AMM (which 2018 did not have) and the Atlantic Nina (which 2018 and 2021 did not have), as well as the very strong WAM suggested by both the NMME and the C3S (similar to 2020) make 2020, to me, seem like one of the strongest analogs for 2022.

For analyses involving current SSTA conditions, 2020 also seems like the strongest current analog. Both 2020 and 2022 have this "warm throughout" look present across the North Atlantic. At this point in time in 2019 and in 2021, the MDR was near average; in 2018, it was below-average. In 2017, the North Atlantic had a definite +AMM horseshoe, which is not very prominent at this moment in time.

For now, all of these indicators suggest to me that 2022 is going to progress similarity to 2020. Of course, this is subject change; nothing is for certain. If I saw signs of a PDO, ENSO, or WAM reversal, I would certainly reconsider my take.

[Category5Kaiju]

To me, this season still seems much more comparable to 2020 than to either 2017 or 2021 (or 2018 or 2019). The current and projected future SSTA patterns and WAM patterns seem more similar to those of 2020 than to those of 2017 or 2021 (or 2018 or 2019).

In terms of future SSTA/WAM patterns, 2022 seems like a very close, almost perfect, match of 2020. The classic La Nina is very likely going to stay throughout the autumn and winter of this year (which automatically makes using 2018 and 2019 shaky, at best), as well as the negative PDO (which 2017 did not have). On the Atlantic side, the positive AMM (which 2018 did not have) and the Atlantic Nina (which 2018 and 2021 did not have), as well as the very strong WAM suggested by both the NMME and the C3S (similar to 2020) make 2020, to me, seem like one of the strongest analogs for 2022.

For analyses involving current SSTA conditions, 2020 also seems like the strongest current analog. Both 2020 and 2022 have this "warm throughout" look present across the North Atlantic. At this point in time in 2019 and in 2021, the MDR was near average; in 2018, it was below-average. In 2017, the North Atlantic had a definite +AMM horseshoe, which is not very prominent at this moment in time.

For now, all of these indicators suggest to me that 2022 is going to progress similarity to 2020. Of course, this is subject change; nothing is for certain. If I saw signs of a PDO, ENSO, or WAM reversal, I would certainly reconsider my take.

From what I can tell, there's actually one very distinct difference between what 2022 at least has been showing this far and what happened in 2020: dust levels. In 2020, there was a record-breaking dust outbreak near the end of May and early June iirc, and major dust outbreaks continued to occur throughout the next several months. In fact, the amount of dust that was advected from the Sahara that year had people wondering whether it would have impeded the season, which was disproven one Laura happened in particular. At least this year, no such "Godzilla Dust Cloud" has materialized thus far, and from all I can tell the level of dust out there now isn't all that remarkable in any manner.

Also, 2022 and 2020 are likely to differ on the La Nina strength. While 2020 was a near-El Nino to moderate La Nina transition year, this year is likely going to be a steady weak La Nina year, meaning we *could* have a much more favorable early season start due to the inherent, locked-in base state of the Nina compared to 2020. So while I agree that 2022 and 2020 have many similarities, there are some rather key differences that I feel are enough to warrant the idea that 2022 could proceed rather differently compared to 2 years ago.

[LemieT]

In reference to some earlier comments, I feel 2013 is like that one time in a relationship that your significant other breaks your trust. You can move on but it always hangs in the back of your mind and you never fully trust them again. On the other hand the models for this year are like that guy/gal who comes on too strong and you feel like they are too good to be true. Somehow amid the noise, I believe 2022 will turn out active and possibly very impactful but somewhere under the overwhelming nuclear year that seems to be forecast (by some models). Please note this is not based on any one parameter, just observations of life...

[Category5Kaiju]

[skyline385]

To me, this season still seems much more comparable to 2020 than to either 2017 or 2021 (or 2018 or 2019). The current and projected future SSTA patterns and WAM patterns seem more similar to those of 2020 than to those of 2017 or 2021 (or 2018 or 2019).

In terms of future SSTA/WAM patterns, 2022 seems like a very close, almost perfect, match of 2020. The classic La Nina is very likely going to stay throughout the autumn and winter of this year (which automatically makes using 2018 and 2019 shaky, at best), as well as the negative PDO (which 2017 did not have). On the Atlantic side, the positive AMM (which 2018 did not have) and the Atlantic Nina (which 2018 and 2021 did not have), as well as the very strong WAM suggested by both the NMME and the C3S (similar to 2020) make 2020, to me, seem like one of the strongest analogs for 2022.

For analyses involving current SSTA conditions, 2020 also seems like the strongest current analog. Both 2020 and 2022 have this "warm throughout" look present across the North Atlantic. At this point in time in 2019 and in 2021, the MDR was near average; in 2018, it was below-average. In 2017, the North Atlantic had a definite +AMM horseshoe, which is not very prominent at this moment in time.

For now, all of these indicators suggest to me that 2022 is going to progress similarity to 2020. Of course, this is subject change; nothing is for certain. If I saw signs of a PDO, ENSO, or WAM reversal, I would certainly reconsider my take.

From what I can tell, there's actually one very distinct difference between what 2022 at least has been showing this far and what happened in 2020: dust levels. In 2020, there was a record-breaking dust outbreak near the end of May and early June iirc, and major dust outbreaks continued to occur throughout the next several months. In fact, the amount of dust that was advected from the Sahara that year had people wondering whether it would have impeded the season, which was disproven one Laura happened in particular. At least this year, no such "Godzilla Dust Cloud" has materialized thus far, and from all I can tell the level of dust out there now isn't all that remarkable in any manner.

Also, 2022 and 2020 are likely to differ on the La Nina strength. While 2020 was a near-El Nino to moderate La Nina transition year, this year is likely going to be a steady weak La Nina year, meaning we *could* have a much more favorable early season start due to the inherent, locked-in base state of the Nina compared to 2020. So while I agree that 2022 and 2020 have many similarities, there are some rather key differences that I feel are enough to warrant the idea that 2022 could proceed rather differently compared to 2 years ago.

Just saw this today

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1536336384360955904

[tolakram]

How does one measure the strength of a dust outbreak?

[SFLcane]

https://news.pypeline.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Steve-Harvey-shocked.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/PIuVmK7.png

Will it last?

[skyline385]

How does one measure the strength of a dust outbreak?

He is using averaged aerosol optical depth through the MDR to measure it

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/globa ... 2_M_AER_OD

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1536706271327526912

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1536707903960322049

[AlphaToOmega]

To me, this season still seems much more comparable to 2020 than to either 2017 or 2021 (or 2018 or 2019). The current and projected future SSTA patterns and WAM patterns seem more similar to those of 2020 than to those of 2017 or 2021 (or 2018 or 2019).

In terms of future SSTA/WAM patterns, 2022 seems like a very close, almost perfect, match of 2020. The classic La Nina is very likely going to stay throughout the autumn and winter of this year (which automatically makes using 2018 and 2019 shaky, at best), as well as the negative PDO (which 2017 did not have). On the Atlantic side, the positive AMM (which 2018 did not have) and the Atlantic Nina (which 2018 and 2021 did not have), as well as the very strong WAM suggested by both the NMME and the C3S (similar to 2020) make 2020, to me, seem like one of the strongest analogs for 2022.

For analyses involving current SSTA conditions, 2020 also seems like the strongest current analog. Both 2020 and 2022 have this "warm throughout" look present across the North Atlantic. At this point in time in 2019 and in 2021, the MDR was near average; in 2018, it was below-average. In 2017, the North Atlantic had a definite +AMM horseshoe, which is not very prominent at this moment in time.

For now, all of these indicators suggest to me that 2022 is going to progress similarity to 2020. Of course, this is subject change; nothing is for certain. If I saw signs of a PDO, ENSO, or WAM reversal, I would certainly reconsider my take.

From what I can tell, there's actually one very distinct difference between what 2022 at least has been showing this far and what happened in 2020: dust levels. In 2020, there was a record-breaking dust outbreak near the end of May and early June iirc, and major dust outbreaks continued to occur throughout the next several months. In fact, the amount of dust that was advected from the Sahara that year had people wondering whether it would have impeded the season, which was disproven one Laura happened in particular. At least this year, no such "Godzilla Dust Cloud" has materialized thus far, and from all I can tell the level of dust out there now isn't all that remarkable in any manner.

Also, 2022 and 2020 are likely to differ on the La Nina strength. While 2020 was a near-El Nino to moderate La Nina transition year, this year is likely going to be a steady weak La Nina year, meaning we *could* have a much more favorable early season start due to the inherent, locked-in base state of the Nina compared to 2020. So while I agree that 2022 and 2020 have many similarities, there are some rather key differences that I feel are enough to warrant the idea that 2022 could proceed rather differently compared to 2 years ago.

Just saw this today

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1536336384360955904

I guess this makes 2020 even stronger as an analog year.

In all honesty, I would not be surprised if we ended up with a similar ACE, storm count, hurricane count, major hurricane count, and seasonal progression to 2020. The patterns suggest an active, possibly hyperactive season (guessing between 150 and 190 ACE) such as 2020, but not really a >200 ACE season such as 2017. The strong WAM is likely going to shift development into the Caribbean, just as it did in 2020.

[SFLcane]

Things could get cranking early as soon as July this season though i remain a bit skeptical as there has not been a strong hurricane in July since 2008 if i am not mistaken. We shall see

[ScottNAtlanta]

Reading these posts I see people commenting about the +AMM. I'm pretty sure most of you are not understanding what that is, so here is a link

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0687.1.xml

I started getting interested in the effects of the AMM back April before the 2020 season when I noticed some strong correlations with the + and - states and the Atlantic Hurricane seasons (I just looked back to verify that) and was ready to then say that we were due for a very busy season. A +AMM is one of the strongest indicators of a potential busy season when taken with other factors such as the ENSO state. It also has a lot more influence if you have a cool neutral to La Nina on top of it. 2020 was indeed a very busy year. I've said many times...don't look at what you think a model says might happen. You have plenty of things you can observe in real time that can inform your thinking of what will be regardless of what one model or the other says.

here is a quote from the above linked paper

Recently, Vimont and Kossin (2007) demonstrated a strong positive relationship on both the interannual and decadal time scales between Atlantic TC activity and tropical Atlantic SST characterized by the AMM. Several conclusions arise from that study with significant bearing on the way we think about Atlantic TC variability: 1) Atlantic TC activity is correlated more strongly with the AMM than with the AMO, 2) the AMM explains twice as much variance in Atlantic TC activity compared with local SST in the MDR/northern tropical Atlantic, and 3) the AMM influences several environmental factors that cooperate in their impact on Atlantic TCs, including thermodynamic (static stability) and dynamic (vertical wind shear and low-level vorticity) variables. Modeling experiments with prescribed SST forcings provide evidence that the vertical wind shear and air temperature and moisture anomalies correlated with the AMM in observations are indeed caused by the AMM (Smirnov and Vimont 2011). The AMM is also positively correlated with the frequency of African easterly waves (Belanger et al. 2014), which may further contribute to its influence on Atlantic TC activity through the number of TC “seeds” (Avila 1991; Landsea 1993). These studies suggest that the conventional perspective of considering North Atlantic SST and/or local SST in the northern tropical Atlantic (i.e., the MDR) should be refined to focus on the cross-equatorial SST gradient, which depends on both northern and southern tropical Atlantic SST, and that the AMM may be more useful than the AMO in understanding

[Spacecoast]

Number of Named Storms, Hurricanes,& Majors 1851-2021:
All three show increases since 1950, (especially named storms).


Focusing only on Hurricanes (blue) from 1950- 2021:
ACE numbers (light grey) are shown. An average of 105.1, (but rising at significant rate).
An average of 6.4 Hurricanes / year, (but rising @ lesser rate than ACE)
US landfalls average 1.5 /year. In other words, (out of the 6.5 Hurricanes / year) 1.5 hit the CONUS.
FL landfalls average 0.56 /year. In other words, (out of the 6.5 Hurricanes / year) 0.56 hit the Florida.

Phil K: "Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall."
Obviously, there have significant deviations from these averages...
Two areas stand out to me:
1. Years 1964, 1985, 2004 and 2020 had usually high number of US landfalls.
1964 had 6 Hurricanes, and 4 of them made US landfall (66.7%), 3 of those made Florida landfall (50%).
1985 had 7 Hurricanes, and 6 of them made US landfall (85%), 2 of those made Florida landfall (28.6%).
2004 had 9 Hurricanes, and 6 of them made US landfall (66.7%), 4 of those made Florida landfall (44.4%).
2020 had 14 Hurricanes, and 6 of them made US landfall (42.9%), but only 1 of those made Florida landfall (7%).

2. Years 2006 -2016 had a mysterious drought of Florida landfalls.


Here is a graph showing what percentage of Hurricanes make CONUS (Average: 24%) / Florida (Average 9%) landfall (both trending slightly downward).


FWIW, this is just interesting climo data, so trying to extrapolate how many of this years 10 forecasted hurricanes will make landfall, is not recommended.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Do you believe some of that increase is due to use of satellite data?

[Iceresistance]

How does one measure the strength of a dust outbreak?

By how thick and widespread it is on observations and satellite, they also compare to previous ones as well.

[skyline385]

From what I can tell, there's actually one very distinct difference between what 2022 at least has been showing this far and what happened in 2020: dust levels. In 2020, there was a record-breaking dust outbreak near the end of May and early June iirc, and major dust outbreaks continued to occur throughout the next several months. In fact, the amount of dust that was advected from the Sahara that year had people wondering whether it would have impeded the season, which was disproven one Laura happened in particular. At least this year, no such "Godzilla Dust Cloud" has materialized thus far, and from all I can tell the level of dust out there now isn't all that remarkable in any manner.

Also, 2022 and 2020 are likely to differ on the La Nina strength. While 2020 was a near-El Nino to moderate La Nina transition year, this year is likely going to be a steady weak La Nina year, meaning we *could* have a much more favorable early season start due to the inherent, locked-in base state of the Nina compared to 2020. So while I agree that 2022 and 2020 have many similarities, there are some rather key differences that I feel are enough to warrant the idea that 2022 could proceed rather differently compared to 2 years ago.

Just saw this today

https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1536336384360955904

I guess this makes 2020 even stronger as an analog year.

In all honesty, I would not be surprised if we ended up with a similar ACE, storm count, hurricane count, major hurricane count, and seasonal progression to 2020. The patterns suggest an active, possibly hyperactive season (guessing between 150 and 190 ACE) such as 2020, but not really a >200 ACE season such as 2017. The strong WAM is likely going to shift development into the Caribbean, just as it did in 2020.

Pretty much yea, am expecting an ACE around 160-180 too.

[tolakram]

How does one measure the strength of a dust outbreak?

By how thick and widespread it is on observations and satellite, they also compare to previous ones as well.

Yea, that's the problem. It's eyeballing it unless there's some objective number or metric to rate these. I'm asking if there is such an objective measure.