* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP922022 06/14/22 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 64 68 66 65 59 55 54 53 49 45 40
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 56 64 68 66 65 59 55 54 53 49 45 40
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 47 52 55 53 49 44 39 38 36 33 30 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 9 16 25 25 25 30 22 17 17 11 10 2 7 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 3 1 2 4 -2 -5 -4 0 3 6
SHEAR DIR 4 24 86 96 97 86 89 85 84 80 47 26 21 21 95 200 158
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 27.8 25.6 25.6 25.8 24.7 24.5 24.8 24.2
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 155 152 153 152 150 150 151 142 118 117 119 108 106 109 102
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.3 -52.2 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 77 79 79 84 82 78 76 72 69 65 64 57 55 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 17 17 17 20 23 22 24 23 22 23 25 24 22 19
850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 57 64 77 106 113 98 102 107 111 83 87 85 74 83 69
200 MB DIV 31 27 33 52 72 120 148 127 124 85 72 8 10 -12 -25 -18 -26
700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 2 3 6 0 -3 -10 -10 -7 -4 -1 -1 4 0
LAND (KM) 465 434 404 399 395 374 344 345 389 430 529 543 527 558 622 718 773
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 102.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 2 0 1 3 4 7 9 9 8 6 5 6 6 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 35 31 28 27 27 22 18 15 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 27. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 10. 11. 14. 11. 10. 10. 11. 9. 7. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 26. 34. 38. 36. 35. 29. 25. 24. 23. 19. 15. 10.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 102.6
** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 06/14/22 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 4.5
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.1
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.4
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 27.2% 20.8% 19.3% 0.0% 18.1% 15.7% 0.0%
Logistic: 13.0% 43.3% 24.1% 16.1% 8.7% 19.4% 35.0% 21.7%
Bayesian: 0.2% 14.5% 3.8% 0.9% 0.4% 5.5% 2.1% 1.3%
Consensus: 8.5% 28.3% 16.2% 12.1% 3.0% 14.3% 17.6% 7.6%
DTOPS: 2.0% 16.0% 8.0% 5.0% 4.0% 10.0% 18.0% 33.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 06/14/22 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##