2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

The TUTT is a semi-permanent feature so it's present in every season, and seems most prominent in the vicinity of 60W (notice a lot of storms taken out by shear tend to dissipate between 55-65.)

As for strength, 2000/01 were two active seasons that I remember it being exceptionally strong and had several systems that developed or were on the verge of developing essentially decapitated.

Is the forum transitioning from historic SAL & SST handwringing to TUTT hand wringing?

Seriously though, wasn't Irma AIDED by the 2017 TUTT with her being to the SW of it?

That's what I thought too...seems like there's a prevailing consensus though that TUTT definitively = shear and making a season not perform up to what it could.

Although iirc, especially with Irma, that was living proof of how TUTTs are not always bad for a particular storm, I think mainly if they are oriented correctly and if the storm is strong enough

Was Irma actually aided by it? From what I recall, it was Jose whose path was influenced by the TUTT.

[NotSparta]

Is the forum transitioning from historic SAL & SST handwringing to TUTT hand wringing?

Seriously though, wasn't Irma AIDED by the 2017 TUTT with her being to the SW of it?

That's what I thought too...seems like there's a prevailing consensus though that TUTT definitively = shear and making a season not perform up to what it could.

Although iirc, especially with Irma, that was living proof of how TUTTs are not always bad for a particular storm, I think mainly if they are oriented correctly and if the storm is strong enough

Was Irma actually aided by it? From what I recall, it was Jose whose path was influenced by the TUTT.

Yeah, Irma I believe was actually between 2 upper troughs but the positioning was favorable and it strengthened from the outflow they provided. A strong TUTT is indeed an unfavorable indicator seasonally, but for individual storms things are a little more nuanced

[Kingarabian]

There's a Semi permanent TUTT parked over Hawaii and during 2014/2015/2018/2020 we were able to see hurricanes maintain/strengthen despite its presence.

[Hammy]

The TUTT is a semi-permanent feature so it's present in every season, and seems most prominent in the vicinity of 60W (notice a lot of storms taken out by shear tend to dissipate between 55-65.)

As for strength, 2000/01 were two active seasons that I remember it being exceptionally strong and had several systems that developed or were on the verge of developing essentially decapitated.

Is the forum transitioning from historic SAL & SST handwringing to TUTT hand wringing?

Seriously though, wasn't Irma AIDED by the 2017 TUTT with her being to the SW of it?

That's what I thought too...seems like there's a prevailing consensus though that TUTT definitively = shear and making a season not perform up to what it could.

Although iirc, especially with Irma, that was living proof of how TUTTs are not always bad for a particular storm, I think mainly if they are oriented correctly and if the storm is strong enough

This is essentially the case from my decades of tracking. Various factors, including how strong the systems approaching are, along with oceanic factors (El Nino and such) and how much basin-wide shear there is tends to determine whether it's a shredder or not. Most weaker MDR tropical storms won't make it past (it was exceptionally strong in 2000--there's essentially a hole in storm tracks there as several storms were sheared apart and others formed within it at the mid-latitudes), though some can redevelop as they interact with it (Dean Erin in 2001 for instance). Other years, it might be oriented differently, or a more established hurricane will simply slice it's way through, often creating dual outflow channels--in fact it's common to see stronger hurricanes form a new ULL behind them once they pass it, as it reestablishes. But it's definitely present in some form or another in any season, I don't recall any where it was absent entirely.

[Category5Kaiju]

I specifically recall how many were saying that 2020 would have been the year we see the ECAR not be its usual graveyard when I tracked in 2020 (didn't turn out 100% true), and then again in 2021 (of course, Elsa was torn up by speed shear, proving that the ECAR still acted as the typical graveyard it was)...with the heavily relaxed trades coming up and the Caribbean being predicted to be much wetter than normal compared to recent years, I wonder if this year will actually, legitimately, see a change from that usual nature of the ECAR

[skyline385]

Made an OHC composite to compare from last 6 years, we are at this point very similar to 2017 in OHC

[ScottNAtlanta]

Made an OHC composite to compare from last 6 years, we are at this point very similar to 2017 in OHC

https://i.imgur.com/UYO2Exc.png

Interesting how 2020 seems almost devoid of a loop current. Something else to note is the lack of OHC in the EPAC in 2017 and now

[ScottNAtlanta]

Is the forum transitioning from historic SAL & SST handwringing to TUTT hand wringing?

Seriously though, wasn't Irma AIDED by the 2017 TUTT with her being to the SW of it?

That's what I thought too...seems like there's a prevailing consensus though that TUTT definitively = shear and making a season not perform up to what it could.

Although iirc, especially with Irma, that was living proof of how TUTTs are not always bad for a particular storm, I think mainly if they are oriented correctly and if the storm is strong enough

This is essentially the case from my decades of tracking. Various factors, including how strong the systems approaching are, along with oceanic factors (El Nino and such) and how much basin-wide shear there is tends to determine whether it's a shredder or not. Most weaker MDR tropical storms won't make it past (it was exceptionally strong in 2000--there's essentially a hole in storm tracks there as several storms were sheared apart and others formed within it at the mid-latitudes), though some can redevelop as they interact with it (Dean Erin in 2001 for instance). Other years, it might be oriented differently, or a more established hurricane will simply slice it's way through, often creating dual outflow channels--in fact it's common to see stronger hurricanes form a new ULL behind them once they pass it, as it reestablishes. But it's definitely present in some form or another in any season, I don't recall any where it was absent entirely.

There is a fine line between ventilation and shear. Tropical Cyclones need to be well ventilated to strengthen. Depending on the vector and direction relative to the Cyclone an ULL can really intensify a system as much as destroy it.

[Teban54]

Made an OHC composite to compare from last 6 years, we are at this point very similar to 2017 in OHC

https://i.imgur.com/UYO2Exc.png

Interesting how 2020 seems almost devoid of a loop current. Something else to note is the lack of OHC in the EPAC in 2017 and now

I wonder if Cristobal 2020 used up some of the OHC in the Gulf. Likewise, this year's lack of OHC in the EPAC might be attributed to Agatha and Blas.

Regardless, this really puts into perspective the insane loop current this year. 2021 is comparable, and then Ida happened.

[SFLcane]

Look at 25/60 Big difference in extent compared to 2017. The 10 contour there goes to 50W in 2022, 40W in 2017 (around 15N). Not concerned about the equator that's south of the development zone lol.

[skyline385]

Made an OHC composite to compare from last 6 years, we are at this point very similar to 2017 in OHC

https://i.imgur.com/UYO2Exc.png

Interesting how 2020 seems almost devoid of a loop current. Something else to note is the lack of OHC in the EPAC in 2017 and now

I wonder if Cristobal 2020 used up some of the OHC in the Gulf. Likewise, this year's lack of OHC in the EPAC might be attributed to Agatha and Blas.

Regardless, this really puts into perspective the insane loop current this year. 2021 is comparable, and then Ida happened.

2020 never had that pronounced of a loop current. Maybe it had something to do with the entire Gulf being abnormally warm. Going into peak season, 2020 had the warmest Gulf in recent years.

[cycloneye]

Good detalis here about the WAM, weaker trade winds and sst's in MDR.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1538216342519693315




 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1538216364158115840

[Category5Kaiju]

Well look at that. The Loop Current is glaring like the freakin' eye of Sauron this early in the hurricane season.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/EnrWFMc.gif

Well look at that. The Loop Current is glaring like the freakin' eye of Sauron this early in the hurricane season.

It also looks like it is trying to pinch off into a warm eddy.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1538275718714609664

[cycloneye]

The Andy joke.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1538329863295229952

[skyline385]

The Andy joke.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1538329863295229952

Andy's reply to my tweet got shared here, I am running up the big league now !!

(j/k)

[Category5Kaiju]

[cycloneye]

MDR may or not have something developing.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1538584649198407682




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1538584652629393410

[ScottNAtlanta]

That wave that just came off doesn't have a lot of convection, but there is a definite low level spin in the clouds. If it starts popping some convection in the next couple of days the only thing holding it back would be the large envelope