Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)

[Kingarabian]

Should begin to develop once it nears 40W. Main inhibitor so far seems to be possible land interaction with SA in about 7 days.

12z GFS back to developing it now but keeps it weak because of land proximity.

The wave in front of it is now approaching 40W and it lost all of its convection. Nothing to indicate that anything different will happen as this wave moves west. Best shot at any development may be when it reaches the SW Caribbean around the beginning of July. Not great chances, though, and not strong. Should track west into Central America, developing or not.

That wave in front of it should moisten up the environment a bit more though. It probably being a low rider would probably help it avoid most of the dry air. This SAL outbreak doesn't look too impressive for the time of year.
SSTs in the area are running higher than average. I think if it can avoid land down the line, it has a good shot.

[ouragans]

A newly analyzed tropical wave is near 17W from the Gambia coast southward, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 15W and 20W.

[AtlanticWind]

Is a pretty impressive wave , and does have some model support.
Something you dont expect this time of year. I think this points
to how the MDR will likely be pretty favorable this year.

[cycloneye]

Great thread.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1539625288790859779




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1539674817477099521




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1539682168070279168

[skyline385]

EURO doing a crossover into EPAC now where it starts developing

[skyline385]

More northwards shift, also that one member on the EPS doing a loop around the keys lol

[aspen]

It looked like the wave was developing at around 114-120hrs out on the 18z GFS, but then it was like “nah I don’t want to”.

Unusual to see the GFS and Euro agreeing on the latitude of this wave, signaling that they agree on the strength of the ridge. The GFS has been under-estimating it for the last month and spewing out CAG Gulf phantoms as a result.

[SFLcane]

Looking like a potential keeper. Very nice structure curious to see how it interacts with the mcs.

[skyline385]

Webb is feeling bullish on the wave

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1539736220615335936

[LemieT]

Same fate likely awaits this wave as for the one just to its west. Convection will gradually dissipate over the next day or two. Too early for anything to develop out there.

I remember a few years ago in June when we almost got a storm out there to be named Bret. Luckily it was still too early for anything to develop and it didn't

Late June/early July is all the same. Good thing if not there would have been a hurricane named Elsa that might have hit my island last year. Thank God for climatology.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1539760283391909888

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1539762771881070593

[cycloneye]

Merging?

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1539774339180011541

[wxman57]

I don't think that the wave by Africa has much chance of developing over the coming week. It may have a shot as it tracks into the SW Caribbean late next week. Euro & GFS may have the right idea in taking it to Nicaragua.

[zzh]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Wave is doing better than I expected. I still think it’s gonna die. I hope we get a brief tc outta it. I expect nothing though.

[LemieT]

I don't think that the wave by Africa has much chance of developing over the coming week. It may have a shot as it tracks into the SW Caribbean late next week. Euro & GFS may have the right idea in taking it to Nicaragua.

My earlier post aside, I am leaning in this direction, but then I also did with Bret and Elsa. Except for the point where it became obvious something was actually happening. If the wave behind does not negatively affect our first wave, the odds are like the CMC is showing, a single robust entity tracks across the MDR in the coming week. What it will be and how strong is another matter. Remember of 40W "wave" is really the tail end of a giant monsoon lobe that sat off the coast for 3 days and ingested a good gulp of SAL. Yet even that small thing is firing convection south of 10N (ITCZ support notwithstanding). Added to that we have seen the previous 2 waves generate a lot of convection post 55W and into the islands. While climatology is a thing for a reason, I do believe we are at the very least 30/70 on development.

[skyline385]

Lots of stuff going on ICON

[Deshaunrob17]

A lot of people have been saying we have the answers by Wednesday night when the wave leaves Africa. Actually, I think this is a watch game until it passes the magic line (50 W).

[skyline385]

CMC