Cpv17 wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Ensembles are raising an eyebrow for the WCAB/Gulf in the longer range.
What's also interesting is that the majority of members with a more northern component show mostly hurricane intensity. I have to wonder about this although there are anomalies like Dennis and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.
Yes, because the stronger the storm the more poleward motion it’ll have. That’s why the strongest members have a northerly component.
This is generally true as a broad rule of thumb, and I think it’s true in this case, but there are exceptions. It’s important to note that the stronger a system is, the more it is influenced by steering higher up in the atmosphere. If steering currents in the lower levels are more to the north, but steering currents higher up are more toward the west, a stronger storm would be more likely to take a track to the west, or on the southern end of guidance in this hypothetical situation.