Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 94L)
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
CMC intensity is very plausible but track will influence the intensity heavily.
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- skyline385
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Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
Kingarabian wrote:CMC intensity is very plausible but track will influence the intensity heavily.
It is definitely plausible, EPS had several members on this route
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- skyline385
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
skyline385 wrote:0Z EURO may get interesting
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220623/f73b3fff56a7e34f20f946785a8b9d91.jpg
Looks like it's a weaker ridge on the Euro but has a shallower system that doesn't feel the weakness.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
06z GFS manages to avoid South America, but is still weak, possibly due to EPac bias and creating EPac-induced shear when it’s highly unlikely anything significant develops (see Celia’s under-performance). There seems to be a gap in the ridge due to a low pressure area just off of the East Coast that the wave is too weak to take advantage of.
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- Blown Away
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
These low latitude June/July waves moving across Atlantic always struggle with dry air/dust. If these waves don't move into CA they typically don't gain enough latitude to miss all the islands and are usually nothing more than a minor/moderate gusty wind rain event for the islands. The "exceptions" have been happening more often in recent years, but I'll side with climatology here.
00z ECENS showing more weaker ensembles into CA than 12z. IF this wave deepens into a moderate TS or hurricane it may gain latitude.
00z ECENS showing more weaker ensembles into CA than 12z. IF this wave deepens into a moderate TS or hurricane it may gain latitude.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave SSW of the Cabo Verde Islands
First mention by the NHC:
1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this
system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at
around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this
system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at
around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
First MDR lemon.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
Looks like we may have competing areas of low pressure with the two waves in the Eastern Atlantic. We’ve seen this in the past, though I can’t remember exactly when. It ended up that neither really developed very well. Guess we’ll see if one becomes dominant in the near term. If not, development may be stunted until this gets in the Caribbean, if then. Just a thought .
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- skyline385
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
Steve H. wrote:Looks like we may have competing areas of low pressure with the two waves in the Eastern Atlantic. We’ve seen this in the past, though I can’t remember exactly when. It ended up that neither really developed very well. Guess we’ll see if one becomes dominant in the near term. If not, development may be stunted until this gets in the Caribbean, if then. Just a thought .
2020 was when centers completed left and right in the MDR. Isiais was the the worst one of the lot iirc.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
skyline385 wrote:Steve H. wrote:Looks like we may have competing areas of low pressure with the two waves in the Eastern Atlantic. We’ve seen this in the past, though I can’t remember exactly when. It ended up that neither really developed very well. Guess we’ll see if one becomes dominant in the near term. If not, development may be stunted until this gets in the Caribbean, if then. Just a thought .
2020 was when centers completed left and right in the MDR. Isiais was the the worst one of the lot iirc.
Laura was pretty bad too. It took a few days as a PTC before one of the centers finally took over and it became a TC, although IIRC, whether it even had a well-defined closed circulation for its first advisory or two was questionable.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
00z GEM/CMC... 12z should be running soon...
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
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Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
ICON shifted north btw, its at the same location as last night's CMC
Also an aggressive GFS, probably it's CAG bias at play a bit
Also an aggressive GFS, probably it's CAG bias at play a bit
Last edited by skyline385 on Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Blown Away
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
skyline385 wrote:ICON shifted north btw, its at the same location as last night's CMC
12z ICON...
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
12z GFS has turned very bullish.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
12z GFS Goes Hurricane in Caribbean...
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Re: RE: Re: Strong Tropical Wave South of the Cabo Verde Islands
Welcome to the 2022 season folks, its going to be very active.Blown Away wrote:
12z GFS Goes Hurricane in Caribbean...
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