Notable Model Debacles and Busts?

[Category5Kaiju]

What were some of the biggest model busts in the past that you remember to this day? For instance, a time when the GFS insisted on a storm happening and the Euro thinking the opposite persistently, only for the GFS to end up right and the Euro to end up wrong (and vice versa)? Or a time when both model runs completely failed to detect genesis or a time when they detected genesis, only for the storm to end up much more powerful than the models thought or end up in a radically different location?

[skyline385]

Posted about it in the other thread, for me it's going to be EURO for Laura as it struggled to develop her till forever even when she was already in the Gulf. IIRC the EURO only got a handle of her midway through the Gulf and could have been a life and death scenario for many if the other models didn't pick up on it in advance. I am sure there are worse examples of a model bust but this one sticks out to me from recent years.

[captainbarbossa19]

Debby 2012 when the Euro showed it hitting Texas and the GFS showed it heading towards Florida. If the Euro was right, things would have been really bad, but I remember seeing the NHC cone heading towards Texas initially, only for the storm to head the opposite direction. That was a really crazy event though because there were so many moving parts.

[NDG]

To me the biggest bust for all models continues to be Katrina in the short to medium range for all models.
It wasn't until within their 72 hr range that they adjusted a landfall forecast from the FL Panhandle to SE-LA/MS.
The second most bust was how the GFS handled MH Joaquin in 2015, the GFS busted big time with its forecasted track hooking towards the Carolinas while the Euro had it going out to sea eventually after the Bahamas.

[Teban54]

Posted about it in the other thread, for me it's going to be EURO for Laura as it struggled to develop her till forever even when she was already in the Gulf. IIRC the EURO only got a handle of her midway through the Gulf and could have been a life and death scenario for many if the other models didn't pick up on it in advance. I am sure there are worse examples of a model bust but this one sticks out to me from recent years.

Euro also insisted on sending Laura into Galveston/Houston until just before landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

Pamela.

[aspen]

I remember several models kept predicting that Julian would form sooner than it did and become a strong hurricane in the subtropics, being strengthened by baroclinic forcing. The real Julian was quite a letdown.

[Kingarabian]

Harvey was a collective bust by the major models. 72-84 hours ish before landfall it was forecast to be weak and crash into Mexico

[galaxy401]

If I remembered correctly, Matthew in 2010 was forecast by the models to move into the Gulf and potentially become a hurricane but the actual storm never made the northward turn and crashed into Central America.

More recently, several models had Nora last year make landfall near Baja California and potentially dump rain up to Arizona. The actual Nora moved way eastward and hit southwest Mexico instead, dissipating by the time it got to the Gulf of California.

Dorian also caused some model debacles as well.

[ElectricStorm]

Typhoon Kammuri has gotta be up there. Nearly all the models had a Cat 5 landfall in the Philippines, some were even showing the potential for a Haiyan like storm. While it still ended up becoming a destructive low end Cat 4, it never really got anywhere close to what the models were showing thankfully.

[aspen]

If I remembered correctly, Matthew in 2010 was forecast by the models to move into the Gulf and potentially become a hurricane but the actual storm never made the northward turn and crashed into Central America.

More recently, several models had Nora last year make landfall near Baja California and potentially dump rain up to Arizona. The actual Nora moved way eastward and hit southwest Mexico instead, dissipating by the time it got to the Gulf of California.

Dorian also caused some model debacles as well.

I’m pretty sure a bunch of early model runs had Dorian get shredded over Hispaniola as a weak TS and never bother anyone. That aged like milk.

Peter was another underperformer last year. Several models were hyping it up as another high-ACE Cape Verde major, but it took forever to develop and a TUTT came in to prevent it from getting stronger than a weak TS. Victor also fell well below model and official forecasts, never making it past 60 kt despite some models showing it becoming a major.

[skyline385]

If I remembered correctly, Matthew in 2010 was forecast by the models to move into the Gulf and potentially become a hurricane but the actual storm never made the northward turn and crashed into Central America.

More recently, several models had Nora last year make landfall near Baja California and potentially dump rain up to Arizona. The actual Nora moved way eastward and hit southwest Mexico instead, dissipating by the time it got to the Gulf of California.

Dorian also caused some model debacles as well.

I’m pretty sure a bunch of early model runs had Dorian get shredded over Hispaniola as a weak TS and never bother anyone. That aged like milk.

Peter was another underperformer last year. Several models were hyping it up as another high-ACE Cape Verde major, but it took forever to develop and a TUTT came in to prevent it from getting stronger than a weak TS. Victor also fell well below model and official forecasts, never making it past 60 kt despite some models showing it becoming a major.

Dorian had a center relocation which is hard to predict. Once the new center formed most models turned up the forecast. HWRF was actually the first to predict 910-920mb all the way back from near PR.

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[wxman57]

1993 - Thanksgiving winter storm across TX. Model back then (MRF, I think) had an Arctic front coming down but the upper low to our west drove it back north to Kansas. At least, according to the model. The 3-day forecast had the front up in Kansas with 70s and 80s across Texas. Turns out, the front was in the Gulf and there was freezing rain and sleet all across Texas. I still have the printed model runs from that storm. That's the storm where Leon Lett of the Cowboys had a problem with a fumble by the goal line up in Dallas. Models always have a problem with Arctic air, thinking the cold, dense air will move with the upper air flow. It doesn't.

[Sciencerocks]

Mitch 1998-A lot of the models were forecasting it to go northward but headed southward into central America.
Gilbert -Heard that it was forecast to go into Texas.
Isidore 2002-was suppose to head towards the gulf coast but instead turned southward into the yucatan.
Ike 2008-If I remember right it was suppose to go north of Cuba.
Floyd 1999 was forecasted on the 12th to impact Florida.

[NotSparta]

GFS refused to develop Gert in 2017 even after it had developed. Took until it was a TS to develop it I believe

[MHC Tracking]

GFS refused to develop Gert in 2017 even after it had developed. Took until it was a TS to develop it I believe

Saw something similar with Hanna in 2020

[aspen]

GFS refused to develop Gert in 2017 even after it had developed. Took until it was a TS to develop it I believe

Saw something similar with Hanna in 2020

Now that you mention it, I recall just about every model failing badly with Hanna. Just a few days before landfall, the Euro had a weak low at most.

[al78]

Hurricane Celia 2010 NE Pacific. Models persistently refusing to intensify it despite apparently favourable conditions, the NHC couldn't understand it and overruled the models to an extent, then it blew up into a cat 5.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/e ... .022.shtml?
"NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING OF
CELIA...AND THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS THAT
CELIA IS OVER AT THE MOMENT."
100 kts

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/e ... .023.shtml?
"THE INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT PREDICTED THE INTENSIFICATION
OF CELIA WELL...CONTINUE TO SHOW VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING."
115 kts

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/e ... .024.shtml?
"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS."
140 kts

Fortunately this was a fish storm.

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane Celia 2010 NE Pacific. Models persistently refusing to intensify it despite apparently favourable conditions, the NHC couldn't understand it and overruled the models to an extent, then it blew up into a cat 5.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/e ... .022.shtml?
"NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING OF
CELIA...AND THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS THAT
CELIA IS OVER AT THE MOMENT."
100 kts

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/e ... .023.shtml?
"THE INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT PREDICTED THE INTENSIFICATION
OF CELIA WELL...CONTINUE TO SHOW VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING."
115 kts

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/e ... .024.shtml?
"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS."
140 kts

Fortunately this was a fish storm.

Yeah I remember this clear as day. However this is also true for most of the EPAC-CPAC crossers that eventually become annular. Those systems have given the models the fits everytime.

[skyline385]

Probably can add PTC2 2022 to this list, all the models were so bullish on it. The EURO at one point had a major in play and so many EPS and GEFS members were on board, meanwhile it’s still missing an LLC.