#85 Postby aspen » Sun Jun 26, 2022 1:37 pm
The HWRF is pretty slow, not just with development (open wave until it’s over the Lesser Antilles), but with 94L’s forward speed too. The 12z HWRF ends with 94L at 14N/72.5W on Friday afternoon, far behind the 12z HMON at 13N/78.6W. It also takes 12 hours longer to reach the Lesser Antilles. This (probably incorrect) slow-down near and in the Caribbean allows 94L to develop a very nice outflow setup and gives it more time over water, so if the 12z run went out another 48 hours, it would probably show a major.
The HMON has a more believable track and timing, but shows quicker development with a 40-45 kt TS impacting the Lesser Antilles and a 60-65 kt TS/C1 over Aruba. The run ends with a 978mb Cat 1 and could also possibly end with a major if it went out another 48 hours. However, faster forward speed should limit intensification in a number of ways.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.