Tropical Wave over the Western Caribbean

[AJC3]

Since there's an actual wave that some of model guidance is showing at least some weak development, there's no problem with giving this wave its own thread.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is along 16W from 02N to 15N, moving W at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 10N between 14W and 20W.

[Category5Kaiju]

For us to have a need to create this kind of tropical wave thread in late June, yikes.

I can't imagine how intense August and September will be.

[weeniepatrol]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[AJC3]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for
gradual development later this week while the system moves
west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/NVdOeLR.png

It's interesting to see NHC mention this wave in the TWO because the wave the models are actually picking up on is the one farther east at 18W.

Edit: Upon further review, it looks like the wave near 18W actually catches up to the wave being mentioned by NHC (near 31W) . The waves are forecast to merge either between 40-50W WED-THU (ECM solution) or between 50-60W THU-FRI (GFS solution).

Either way, I'll re-title/tweak this thread a bit.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W, south of 16N
and moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 14W and 22W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 31W, south of 15N and
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 09N and between 26W and 36W.

I think what we'll see over the next few days is the NHC will start to mention some interaction between these two waves mentioned above, since that's what both the ECM and GFS are showing from mid-late week. In any event, I adjusted the thread title, however I plan on posting the TWD sections for both waves over the next several days, based on what I think will take place later this week.

[IsabelaWeather]

Wow, I was amazed to see this lemon pop up. This one per the nhc looks to be headed right for the northern windwards and GA's. Will hopefully bring some rain.

[AtlanticWind]

I would expect an invest very soon , maybe later today.

[SFLcane]

[InfernoFlameCat]

Is it June or september!

[ChrisH-UK]

Models have been showing further hurricanes developing off the current chain of tropical waves on and off over the last week or so. The one after 94L has had a circulation since the 25th and at times has looked better than 94L.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 32W,
extending from 02N to 16N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and between 30W and
40W.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS tries to develop something but shear kills it before reaching the northern Leeward Islands.

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

GFS tries to develop something but shear kills it before reaching the northern Leeward Islands.

That would be typical of a normal late June / early July.

[AtlanticWind]

12z has this a bit stronger, maybe weak T.S. off se florida coast.

[SFLcane]

12z has this a bit stronger, maybe weak T.S. off se florida coast.

Yea, On the east side of an ULL. Gotta see what happens when we mix all these waves with the TUTT there.

[Blown Away]

12z has this a bit stronger, maybe weak T.S. off se florida coast.

Yea, On the east side of an ULL. Gotta see what happens when we mix all these waves with the TUTT there.

12Z GFS hinting this low will develop before crashing into Hispaniola and then back to a TD/TS into SFL in 10-11 days... Lots of land & upper level obstacles for this TW...

[Nuno]

12z has this a bit stronger, maybe weak T.S. off se florida coast.

Yea, On the east side of an ULL. Gotta see what happens when we mix all these waves with the TUTT there.

https://i.imgur.com/tSfHg6V.gif
12Z GFS hinting this low will develop before crashing into Hispaniola and then back to a TD/TS into SFL in 10-11 days... Lots of land & upper level obstacles for this TW...

ah yes, the classic Greater Antilles shield

[AtlanticWind]

NAVGEM has stronger storm north of Hispaniola on 12z run.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for some gradual
development later this week while the system moves west-
northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS a little more bullish with our TW. TS for the NE Caribbean & SE Bahamas and recurving hurricane off the SE CONUS. Not sure if this will be a quick recurve after the NE Caribbean, previous model runs were into Florida. Lots of obstacles for this TW.