
Just some wave train with 4 waves in June

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weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/R4844Ij
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/7NKJLkC.png
USTropics wrote:The western branch of the ITCZ for the second dekad of June (11-20th) has lifted anomalously more north of climo:
https://i.imgur.com/iywT0le.jpg
I plotted the past 20 years of the region from 15W to 15E, and 2022 is 4th highest (behind 2005, 2012, and 2017):
https://i.imgur.com/LQkHJ9u.png
I made an interactive graph here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQBfIw9qGKG27fVc-VZFBnbfDvkVtIRxU3bEs-sqZ8fv1SbBxeHvHhByLLFDk52jfy8PmAjGPxJGDPV/pubchart?oid=1177492694&format=interactive
WiscoWx02 wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:https://i.imgur.com/GyAxP97.png
What a contrast from 2016-2021. This, if I am seeing this correctly, is the first time in a while where the Atlantic subtropics were modestly cooler than normal and the deep tropics modestly warmer than normal. Even 2017 and 2020 at this point in time did not feature such a widespread, cool subtropics, which honestly amazes me. In the past several seasons, I specifically recall how people were speculating about how the warm subtropics could rob instability from the MDR and how the warm subtropics could have been a culprit in the relative stability seen in the MDR during peak season, but this year, that does not seem like an issue one bit.
At this point, I am genuinely wondering if we're in for not only a rough and active season but also a season that features a ferocious level of hurricane activity specifically concentrated in the deep tropics. In other words, no Florences or Dorians as worst-case scenarios but rather Ivans and Allens.
This SSTA configuration…..big yikesHonestly kinda reminds me of the 2005 configuration at this point as much as I hate to say it. 2005 was slightly warmer but still…the cooler subtropics is unlike anything we have seen in many years. Not a good sign at all.
SFLcane wrote:Honestly until proven otherwise climate change has changed the overall steering around FL. It would not surprise me 1 bit to see everything once again avoiding the state this season.
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:Honestly until proven otherwise climate change has changed the overall steering around FL. It would not surprise me 1 bit to see everything once again avoiding the state this season.
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come on broski
SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:Honestly until proven otherwise climate change has changed the overall steering around FL. It would not surprise me 1 bit to see everything once again avoiding the state this season.
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come on broski
The big piece I see is that western ridge. It's always there it seems nowadays. Very hard to get that digging west US trough that entrenches a downstream NE ridge like you need to get a storm across FL.
captainbarbossa19 wrote:SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:
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come on broski
The big piece I see is that western ridge. It's always there it seems nowadays. Very hard to get that digging west US trough that entrenches a downstream NE ridge like you need to get a storm across FL.
Are you referring to east coast Florida peninsula landfalls? Florida has been hit numerous times since 2004 from other angles.
captainbarbossa19 wrote:SFLcane wrote:toad strangler wrote:
![]()
come on broski
The big piece I see is that western ridge. It's always there it seems nowadays. Very hard to get that digging west US trough that entrenches a downstream NE ridge like you need to get a storm across FL.
Are you referring to east coast Florida peninsula landfalls? Florida has been hit numerous times since 2004 from other angles.
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