2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

The big piece I see is that western ridge. It's always there it seems nowadays. Very hard to get that digging west US trough that entrenches a downstream NE ridge like you need to get a storm across FL.

Are you referring to east coast Florida peninsula landfalls? Florida has been hit numerous times since 2004 from other angles.

East coast was hit by Cat 1 Katrina in 2005. CLOSE CALLS recently with Matthew & Dorian. Irma was very close to a EC hit. There is no such thing as a Florida shield . We just been lucky.

Katrina, lol! 17 years ago. Most don't even know what a hurricane is here. But anyway yea we will see what this season brings could be very active come ASO.

[toad strangler]

Are you referring to east coast Florida peninsula landfalls? Florida has been hit numerous times since 2004 from other angles.

East coast was hit by Cat 1 Katrina in 2005. CLOSE CALLS recently with Matthew & Dorian. Irma was very close to a EC hit. There is no such thing as a Florida shield . We just been lucky.

Katrina, lol! 17 years ago. Most don't even know what a hurricane is here. But anyway yea we will see what this season brings could be very active come ASO.

17 years is a blip in climo history. And the parcel of land you have in mind is rather small. There is no shield my good friend

[captainbarbossa19]

East coast was hit by Cat 1 Katrina in 2005. CLOSE CALLS recently with Matthew & Dorian. Irma was very close to a EC hit. There is no such thing as a Florida shield . We just been lucky.

Katrina, lol! 17 years ago. Most don't even know what a hurricane is here. But anyway yea we will see what this season brings could be very active come ASO.

17 years is a blip in climo history. And the parcel of land you have in mind is rather small. There is no shield my good friend

Yep! A lot of people said the CONUS had a major hurricane shield until Harvey. It's just a temporary cycle of inactivity but it will return at some point.

[aspen]

Been saying for a while, we are headed towards a very quiet July

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1541439759356157952

The CFS, for the most part, reflects this, with no activity for the majority of July. It starts going a little crazy at the very end of July with a weak eastern MDR system, followed by a MDR long-tracker that forms in the first days of August and scrapes the East Coast. Not sure what the CFS is seeing that sparks both systems despite the suppressive MJO only starting to move away; maybe a strong Kelvin wave? It’s even more unusual because it shows nothing afterwards in August until a pair of MDR long-trackers forming at the end of the month. The late July/early August storms seem like stuff it was originally predicting for mid-August, once the suppressive MJO is (presumably) out of the way.

[Category5Kaiju]

Regarding this "Florida shield" talk, I think there are also some very key nuances that must be made to clarify this term. If we're talking about tropical storm strikes, then there never was a "shield" anytime recently. If we are talking about generic hurricane strikes, then since Hermine in 2016, there have been a handful. If we are talking about major hurricane strikes, then Irma and Michael count. I mean, they after all did make landfall in the state of Florida.

Now, sometimes I feel that this "Florida shield" term is tossed around but in reality referring to the southern part of the state, which has still experienced many tropical storm strikes during the past years. So, in other words, it should be more appropriately called the "South Florida shield." But then, if this were the case, then Irma technically still counts as it literally made a Cat 4 landfall over the Keys. Sometimes, just as a general observation that I have made, there seem to be people who discount Irma for some reason even though it made landfall as a Cat 4 in the southern part of the state, which very much resembles the behavior of those storms in the 1940s.

Now under the umbrella of "South Florida shield," that brings us to an even more important distinction that must be made: west coast or east coast. The west coast had Charley and Wilma as the most recent major hits, while the east had Irma and Andrew.

My overall point here is, I really think that the term "Florida shield," whenever tossed around, could sometimes be a bit misleading; if we're talking about "Florida shield," then given the sheer number of TSs that have hit or scraped the state in recent years, there never has been a "shield." But if we're talking about "Miami Category 4+ shield," then yes, that has not happened anytime recently. However, Mother Nature knows no bounds or limitations, so this "Miami Category 4+ shield" may unfortunately not be a shield at all, so best to be prepared during any given season!

[toad strangler]

This will be my last post on the silly FL shield thing as obviously that's not what this thread is for.
The NOAA return rate of a MAJOR hurricane for Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade counties (SFLcane's context) is 16, 14, and 17 years in that order. Keep in mind this "return" means a storm center can pass within 50 nautical miles from the county and be scored a hit. Irma was probably a hit for Dade county. This has NOTHING to do with landfalls. There is simply no such thing as a South FL shield or ANY Florida shield for that matter. It's nothing but fun banter. Carry on!

[tolakram]

Florida shield posts, from this point on, are subject to moderation. They produce too many replies and that south Florida postage stamp has the same risk of getting hit every year.

Vertical Instability - tropical Atlantic


Compared to other seasons this is way up! No, I'm still not sure what to make of this indicator after 9 years of looking at it.

source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

[skyline385]

Florida shield posts, from this point on, are subject to moderation. They produce too many replies and that south Florida postage stamp has the same risk of getting hit every year.

Vertical Instability - tropical Atlantic


Compared to other seasons this is way up! No, I'm still not sure what to make of this indicator after 9 years of looking at it.

source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Haven't seen this indicator before so apologies if i get this wrong but to me it looks like while the instability is increasing which should promote TCG, it is still below the average (not sure what climo the average is based on).

[Teban54]

Florida shield posts, from this point on, are subject to moderation. They produce too many replies and that south Florida postage stamp has the same risk of getting hit every year.

Vertical Instability - tropical Atlantic
https://i.imgur.com/L9DSHx0.png

Compared to other seasons this is way up! No, I'm still not sure what to make of this indicator after 9 years of looking at it.

source: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Haven't seen this indicator before so apologies if i get this wrong but to me it looks like while the instability is increasing which should promote TCG, it is still below the average (not sure what climo the average is based on).

This particular product shows below average vertical instability every single year, even during the MDR season in 2017. We can safely say it's bugged at this point.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1541524481893699585




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1541433831642767360




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1541439759356157952

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1541524481893699585

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1541433831642767360

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1541439759356157952

It was noted in the replies of the first post that there also seems to be a very strong CCKW in late July/early August. That would probably explain why the CFS tries to form two MDR storms around that time.

[SconnieCane]

...I think some of these recent posts are all assuming 2022 will be as MJO-dependent as 2021 was (as in, an unfavorable MJO shuts everything down regardless of other conditions). Remains to be seen how this year actually plays out in that regard. I'd be hesitant too in taking the timing of CFS formations as gospel, given what I've seen in trying to use it for land-based storm chase forecasting (although severe local storms and tropical cyclones are different animals).

Despite all the ominous predictions for this year (no this isn't a "2013 repeat" or "season cancel" post), we're actually well short of the frenetic pace of NS formation of the last two years. At the end of June into start of July 2020 and 2021, we'd just had our fourth Atlantic named storm and were about to have our fifth. In 2022, we're only now about to have our second, which is actually much more normal and means nothing for peak season.

[skyline385]

...I think some of these recent posts are all assuming 2022 will be as MJO-dependent as 2021 was (as in, an unfavorable MJO shuts everything down regardless of other conditions). Remains to be seen how this year actually plays out in that regard. I'd be hesitant too in taking the timing of CFS formations as gospel, given what I've seen in trying to use it for land-based storm chase forecasting (although severe local storms and tropical cyclones are different animals).

Despite all the ominous predictions for this year (no this isn't a "2013 repeat" or "season cancel" post), we're actually well short of the frenetic pace of NS formation of the last two years. At the end of June into start of July 2020 and 2021, we'd just had our fourth Atlantic named storm and were about to have our fifth. In 2022, we're only now about to have our second, which is actually much more normal and means nothing for peak season.

The MJO was strong enough to create a Caribbean system and 2 AOI in the MDR in June. The active phase of the pulse has been very strong so far so the trailing suppressed phase should be strong as well imo.

[weeniepatrol]

where is he?

[FireRat]

where is he?

https://i.imgur.com/TYTvp1d.jpg

If this keeps up we might eventually find out what the curse of King TUTT really is

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1541802995020701701

[underthwx]

I read about the loop current in the Gulf being further north this year, which may aid in producing more intense storms this season?....I found this to be interesting, I am unfamiliar with the loop current, and it's significance relating to cyclones.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I read about the loop current in the Gulf being further north this year, which may aid in producing more intense storms this season?....I found this to be interesting, I am unfamiliar with the loop current, and it's significance relating to cyclones.

The gulf current sometimes pushes into the gulf. It supplies the gulf with deep ocean heat content. Therefore storms don’t weaken from upwelling, they strengthen as they upwell warmer water from beneath the surface that came from the Caribbean. It’s what made Katrina, Rita, and Ida such Monsters so quickly. And it’s particularly robust this season.

[Cataegis96]

The western branch of the ITCZ for the second dekad of June (11-20th) has lifted anomalously more north of climo:
https://i.imgur.com/iywT0le.jpg

I plotted the past 20 years of the region from 15W to 15E, and 2022 is 4th highest (behind 2005, 2012, and 2017):
https://i.imgur.com/LQkHJ9u.png

I made an interactive graph here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQBfIw9qGKG27fVc-VZFBnbfDvkVtIRxU3bEs-sqZ8fv1SbBxeHvHhByLLFDk52jfy8PmAjGPxJGDPV/pubchart?oid=1177492694&format=interactive

Awesome! Where did you get the historical data for the ITCZ Branch Position? Been looking for that. Can only see recent data from this year in a data table on CPC's website: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/itf/itcz.shtml.

[skyline385]

...I think some of these recent posts are all assuming 2022 will be as MJO-dependent as 2021 was (as in, an unfavorable MJO shuts everything down regardless of other conditions). Remains to be seen how this year actually plays out in that regard. I'd be hesitant too in taking the timing of CFS formations as gospel, given what I've seen in trying to use it for land-based storm chase forecasting (although severe local storms and tropical cyclones are different animals).

Despite all the ominous predictions for this year (no this isn't a "2013 repeat" or "season cancel" post), we're actually well short of the frenetic pace of NS formation of the last two years. At the end of June into start of July 2020 and 2021, we'd just had our fourth Atlantic named storm and were about to have our fifth. In 2022, we're only now about to have our second, which is actually much more normal and means nothing for peak season.

The MJO was strong enough to create a Caribbean system and 2 AOI in the MDR in June. The active phase of the pulse has been very strong so far so the trailing suppressed phase should be strong as well imo.

More confirmation of what i said above

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1542131737098129408




 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1542132293313220612