https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion
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ATL: Ex INVEST 95L - Discussion
AL, 95, 2022062806, , BEST, 0, 264N, 920W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 120, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, al712022 to al952022,
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
925mb has increased somewhat and is stacked up to 500mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
tropicwatch wrote:925mb has increased somewhat and is stacked up to 500mb.
So you are saying shear is low off Texas? which should be evident when we start getting visible images of the convection.
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looking like 95L has some mid level spin this morning....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
MGC wrote:Looking like 95L has some mid level spin this morning....MGC
I can see a vortex almost due south of Lafayette on SWIR 26.7N 82.4W should be drifting toward Texas coast hoping it gets inland before much development
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Northern Gulf of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
An area of low pressure is centered over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low has
increased overnight but remains disorganized. Some additional
development of this system is possible as it moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of Texas during the
next two days. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be
possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. For more
information about the potential for heavy rain, please see products
issued by your National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
No models section?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
AL, 95, 2022062812, , BEST, 0, 266N, 923W, 25, 1014, LO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:No models section?
The thread is up.
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- lrak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Tailgater33 wrote:MGC wrote:Looking like 95L has some mid level spin this morning....MGC
I can see a vortex almost due south of Lafayette on SWIR 26.7N 82.4W should be drifting toward Texas coast hoping it gets inland before much development
For sure now on the visible, hoping for some good rain.
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AKA karl
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Starting to look interesting on the latest vis sat loop with a center perhaps trying to form at 26.7n and 92.6w.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.
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- lrak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.
Yeah going to be a slow thread for a while, I think STORM2K has maybe 3 members south of Victoria/Laredo line.
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AKA karl
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
If that's the case, I wonder how likely it is that this could snipe Bonnie from PTC 2, sort of like the Wilfred/Alpha/Beta situation from 2020. If this thing's able to get its act together, I could see that happening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
lrak wrote:SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.
Yeah going to be a slow thread for a while, I think STORM2K has maybe 3 members south of Victoria/Laredo line.
Starting to see some local chatter
https://twitter.com/travisabc13/status/ ... 4ckYVWSBWg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.
You do realize that most of the rain will be well east of the center, right?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Cpv17 wrote:SoupBone wrote:And now we know why Houston news isn't talking about this a whole lot.
You do realize that most of the rain will be well east of the center, right?
If you look at the modeling I quoted (which is gone on my screen for some reason), the landfall for most of the models is way further south, leaving the Houston area with limited rain. But yeah, someone will be getting some rain for sure.
From the KHOU site.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
95L looking like it needs a Gatorade or something, not too impressive atm, which is cool with me...but I do hope for some rain, just like everyone else does...
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
underthwx wrote:95L looking like it needs a Gatorade or something, not too impressive atm, which is cool with me...but I do hope for some rain, just like everyone else does...
Heading towards DMIN. This is not unusual for the convection to wane a little. Imo, I think this will be Bonnie or Colin at landfall.
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