Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022
...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 50.9W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the ABC Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
8.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track,
the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Island by late Tuesday, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea
or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance
will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern
Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just investigated the tropical
wave to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and found that
the system has not yet developed a closed circulation. However the
plane did find an area of tropical-storm-force winds over the
northern portion of the system. The disturbance is producing some
cells of strong convection, but overall the system is not very well
organized. Since there is a good chance that the disturbance
will become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward
Islands, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two. The environment looks fairly favorable for
development, but the numerical guidance is generally not that
bullish on strengthening for the next couple of days. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the correct consensus model, HCCA.
Although the center is not well defined, my best estimate of the
initial motion is about 285/16 kt. A strong 500 mb subtropical
ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the system
through the forecast period. This steering scenario should cause a
west-northwestward to westward track for the next several days.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands beginning late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 8.6N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 28/0600Z 9.3N 53.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 28/1800Z 10.1N 57.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 29/0600Z 10.8N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 11.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 11.8N 69.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 12.1N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 12.2N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 12.3N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch