2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

See you mid July. Nothing atypical. Suppressed MJO phase typically means more SAL/trade surges we'll see if our warm MDR holds up.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1542131737098129408

[aspen]

See you mid July. Nothing atypical. Suppressed MJO phase typically means more SAL/trade surges we'll see if our warm MDR holds up.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1542131737098129408?s=20&t=T9qyiH-Si-Ig3euF38yr9Q

Probably nothing until late July or maybe even as late as mid August. I remember last year, it was thought that activity would resume in late July once the suppressive MJO phase finally started to leave, but it took another few weeks for the Atlantic to be able to produce anything. A similar situation may unfold this year too.

Edit: almost forgot, aren’t the models also showing a strong CCKW at the end of the month?

[skyline385]

See you mid July. Nothing atypical. Suppressed MJO phase typically means more SAL/trade surges we'll see if our warm MDR holds up.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1542131737098129408?s=20&t=T9qyiH-Si-Ig3euF38yr9Q

Probably nothing until late July or maybe even as late as mid August. I remember last year, it was thought that activity would resume in late July once the suppressive MJO phase finally started to leave, but it took another few weeks for the Atlantic to be able to produce anything. A similar situation may unfold this year too.

Edit: almost forgot, aren’t the models also showing a strong CCKW at the end of the month?

Check my post above, Andy talks about the CCKW

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1542195346146721795




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1542195868455026691




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1542198227558080512

[aspen]

Updates from today’s midday CFS run:

— With the exception of a TS traveling from 40W to 60W around July 24-27th, the next 6-7 weeks are quiet due to the suppressive MJO phase and some time afterwards for the Atlantic to recover
—MDR activity begins with a western MDR storm that forms on 8/18, passes over the NE Caribbean islands and Bahamas over the next few days, and recurves close to the East Coast near the end of the month
—Two more MDR storms follow on 8/27 and 8/31, respectively. The first hits the NECar again and RIs around Bermuda on 9/8, the second recurves harmlessly OTS thanks to a break in the ridge caused by the 8/18 storm, which sticks around in the subtropics
—Another, very brief MDR storm forms on 9/10 and recurves, similar to Rene ‘20
—Final MDR storm forms on 9/12 and goes due west into the Caribbean (9/17) before turning north into the Greater Antilles and Bahamas (9/19 and 9/20)

TL;DR — pretty much nothing else after PTC2/Bonnie thanks to the 2021-esqe suppressive phase until mid-August, when the MDR goes nuts. The CFS has been rather persistent with the idea of an Earl ‘10/Irene ‘11 East Coast scraper in the second half of August for the last several days. While it has been spot-on with some storms in its long-range forecast like Isaias, Laura, and Ida, I’d take this with a healthy dose of skepticism. Still, the pattern this predicts until mid-September (suppressed 1.5 months before a busy peak starting in mid-late August) seems quite reasonable.

[cycloneye]

aspen, moved your CFS post from the models discussion 16 day thread to this one.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1542500705121972226

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1542500705121972226

Big doubt on this, there is nothing on the long range ensembles and we already know the Atlantic is going through a strong suppressed phase from the MJO and the CCKW.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1542500705121972226?s=20&t=VwZXQm91UwiNNzlzOC0Dmw

Big doubt on this, there is nothing in the long range ensembles and we already know the Atlantic is going through a strong suppressed phase from the MJO and the CCKW.

Said long-range ensembles only go out 384 hours (if you're looking at the GEFS, GEPS, or ECENS), which only takes you to July 16th or so. I wouldn't really consider that a deep dive into the second half of July. Furthermore, this tweet doesn't dispute the second part of your statement anyway, and the gif in fact supports this well-forecasted suppressed phase over the Atlantic in the short-term. In addition, the general shift back into favorability as we approach the heart of the season is consistent with typical La Nina seasons and intraseasonal variability.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1542500705121972226?s=20&t=VwZXQm91UwiNNzlzOC0Dmw

Big doubt on this, there is nothing in the long range ensembles and we already know the Atlantic is going through a strong suppressed phase from the MJO and the CCKW.

Said long-range ensembles only go out 384 hours (if you're looking at the GEFS, GEPS, or ECENS), which only takes you to July 16th or so. I wouldn't really consider that a deep dive into the second half of July. Furthermore, this tweet doesn't dispute the second part of your statement anyway, and the gif in fact supports this well-forecasted suppressed phase over the Atlantic in the short-term. In addition, the general shift back into favorability as we approach the heart of the season is consistent with typical La Nina seasons and intraseasonal variability.

word

Ben is someone I have in my in my pro met long range indicator favorites. I don't post the tweet links here much anymore but I do take notice and I would place an affordable bet on the latter half of July becoming more favorable if Noll sees it. Does this mean a switch flip? Nah that's probably not the context of his tweet. Overall favorability is the glimpse ..

[Kingarabian]

Second half of July is very likely to be active. Easily see it on the models that have long range 850mb wind and 200mb wind forecasts. There should be ample westerly anomalies for the entire MDR while 200m easterlies are favored at the same time.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1542500705121972226?s=20&t=VwZXQm91UwiNNzlzOC0Dmw

Big doubt on this, there is nothing in the long range ensembles and we already know the Atlantic is going through a strong suppressed phase from the MJO and the CCKW.

Said long-range ensembles only go out 384 hours (if you're looking at the GEFS, GEPS, or ECENS), which only takes you to July 16th or so. I wouldn't really consider that a deep dive into the second half of July. Furthermore, this tweet doesn't dispute the second part of your statement anyway, and the gif in fact supports this well-forecasted suppressed phase over the Atlantic in the short-term. In addition, the general shift back into favorability as we approach the heart of the season is consistent with typical La Nina seasons and intraseasonal variability.

That was my bad, i read the tweet as second week of July. Also there are still the 35-day GEFS and 45-day EPS which are not showing anything but obviously those can’t be trusted. Like i said, i misread and thought he was talking about the 2nd week of July.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1542502692953767936

[IsabelaWeather]

Curious on why the WPAC has much colder cloud tops than the Atl? I was looking at Chaba and the amount of -80C cloud tops is insane, you dont see this very often in the ATL but its at the same latitude as the caribbean is so it can't be a higher tropopause.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=04W&product=ir

[zzh]

Curious on why the WPAC has much colder cloud tops than the Atl? I was looking at Chaba and the amount of -80C cloud tops is insane, you dont see this very often in the ATL but its at the same latitude as the caribbean is so it can't be a higher tropopause.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=04W&product=ir

WPAC does have a higher tropopause. They are at the same latitude doesn't mean they have the same tropopause height.

[cycloneye]

JMA.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1542585183882412033

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1542613241033015297

[skyline385]

:crazyeyes:

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1542613241033015297

So much sinking air in the west Atlantic even in early August

Interestingly enough, both the EPS and GEFS control members hint at possible activity for a small period in early July.

[SFLcane]

Um we gonna have some problems if this happens!

[aspen]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1542613241033015297?s=21&t=ZKGGX1SB0JeBuKdoV1-8aw

So much sinking air in the west Atlantic even in early August

Interestingly enough, both the EPS and GEFS control members hint at possible activity for a small period in early July.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220630/43fc65fd64f7bef7ea05fac38d62c182.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220630/c6b431cdeb9482fcb27013f550b708b2.jpg

Looks like there’s also a weak enhanced CCKW in the EPac and western Atlantic around July 16-21st, then lots of rising air over the EPac for the rest of the month with small bursts of Atlantic rising air around July 26th and August 1st. Not great for the Atlantic — I’d bet the EPac would be more active — but we could get a storm or two.