EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

Finally. Earlier advisory had landfall in 24 hours but with Bonnie still not really slowing down, landfall will probably be within 12 hours. The Atlantic might be the only region on the planet where storms in the deep tropics move at an unreasonably fast pace.

Extremely consistent with the observed and forecast Hadley cell expansion which disproportionately affects the Atlantic basin

[aspen]

Dear Colin, Danielle, Earl, and the rest,

If you are planning on becoming a PTC, please do not give us wx trackers a big headache like your predecessors Alex and Bonnie did and remain a PTC for multiple days in a row. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Category5Kaiju

Get ready for PTC-3 to take 20 advisory cycles to become a TS, only to be yet another pathetically weak and barely classifiable Colin like its 2010 and 2016 versions.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane Mike]

Looking stronger.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yo-IYO_Oh1I

[galaxy401]

If it developed yesterday, this would probably be a hurricane by now.

[kevin]

Bonnie is looking very healthy right now. Considering how quickly it's coming together now I think that if it had followed the northern edge of the cone instead of the southern one it probably would've become a hurricane as the initial forecast suggested. The land interaction with SA really hindered its development. In the end I do like it better this way. We still get to have Bonnie and the folks over in CA won't have to deal with hurricane-force winds. Even though TS winds + rain can of course still be very dangerous.

[cycloneye]

AL, 02, 2022070118, , BEST, 0, 113N, 818W, 40, 1004, TS

[tolakram]

If it developed yesterday, this would probably be a hurricane by now.

Yea, I agree. Looking really good at the moment.

[tolakram]

COD floater Visible Loop
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[aspen]

The final recon mission just took off. I’m going to guess they’ll find a 45-50 kt TS at the most.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This looks like it is really trying to ramp up quickly. It is probably a blessing that it took so long to develop

[ScottNAtlanta]

The final recon mission just took off. I’m going to guess they’ll find a 45-50 kt TS at the most.

By the time they get there, it might even be slightly stronger than that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at satellite it seems like Bonnie has put together an inner core rather quickly. The bursting pattern around the center looks more like something id expect to see in at least a moderate ts. Very unlikely still that this hits hurricane status, but could I could see this reaching 60-65mph before landfall.

[Category5Kaiju]

Whatever happens with Bonnie going forward, all I will say is I really hope that the people in Nicaragua and Costa Rica are ready for this. As we saw with storms like Otto, Cesar, and even Nate, it does not take much in terms of TC strength to inflict a flooding disaster in that region of CA, and if past storms are any prediction of what's to come, then I genuinely wouldn't be surprised to see some tangible death and monetary toll from Bonnie here.

[SconnieCane]

Dear Colin, Danielle, Earl, and the rest,

If you are planning on becoming a PTC, please do not give us wx trackers a big headache like your predecessors Alex and Bonnie did and remain a PTC for multiple days in a row. Thank you.

Sincerely,
Category5Kaiju

Get ready for PTC-3 to take 20 advisory cycles to become a TS, only to be yet another pathetically weak and barely classifiable Colin like its 2010 and 2016 versions.

Or better yet, just develop into a classifiable tropical cyclone (depression) more than 48 hours out from possible TS+ land impacts, thus making watches/warnings and the PTC designation unnecessary.

[aspen]

The final recon mission just took off. I’m going to guess they’ll find a 45-50 kt TS at the most.

By the time they get there, it might even be slightly stronger than that.

I’m going on the conservative side just because the wind field and circulation were so broad this morning, but yeah it does look really good on satellite. Like, this would’ve been something RI’ing into a hurricane if it wasn’t for the lack of time.

[aspen]

The 12z HWRF put Bonnie at about 82.5W at 21z today. It’s now 20z, and it looks like Bonnie is indeed at 82.5W. If the HWRF continues to be right about Bonnie’s locating and timing, then it won’t make landfall until about 4z or 5z tomorrow. That might be enough time for it to become a high end TS.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not too shabby. Should become a decent hurricane in the EPAC.

[ElectricStorm]

Looking pretty good right now, definitely a solid early season storm despite it taking forever to develop.

[aspen]

I calculated it’ll take another 3-ish hours for recon to reach Bonnie. Hopefully it hasn’t made landfall by then.