How many named storms will form on July?

[cycloneye]

Let's see what the members think about how many named storms will form on July. This poll will close on June 30th at 1:10 PM EDT.

[WiscoWx02]

Thinking we’ll see at least one…most likely in the subtropics though. I would never count on any MDR activity no matter how busy the season is likely to be but given how active the subtropics tend to be these days it’s hard to believe we won’t see at least one in that region of the Atlantic in July.

[Kingarabian]

I think we could see two more systems before the end of June. One off the east coast and one in the MDR.

[CFLHurricane]

Two systems but nothing of consequence. It is dusty dry July after all.

[AtlanticWind]

I will go with 2, but 3 wouldnt suprise me in what should be an active year.

[Old-TimeCane]

I went with two. Not crazy busy, but yet not a typical July.

[chaser1]

I'm thinking 3, with two of them spinning at the same time around the last 10 days of the month.

[kevin]

I voted 2, above average but nothing historic. Once the switch flips I think we're gonna be in for a true rollercoaster ride, but unlike f.e. 2005 I don't think the switch will be flipped until early/mid August.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Anywhere from 2 -5. I’m going with 2 but I think 3 named storms is a reasonable prospect as well. We could have 5 if the switch turns on in early July but <1% of that IMHO.

[CrazyC83]

Going with 3, one of which becoming a hurricane.

[psyclone]

We need some downcasting in here. i went with 0

[captainbarbossa19]

We need some downcasting in here. i went with 0

I went with 1, but I will not be surprised with more or less activity. July is rather difficult to predict.

[aspen]

Today’s CFS has FOUR July storms, but while I think the overall pattern is probable (a bit of a lull after 94L before the MDR producing something in the later half of the month), it’s probably overdoing the NS count. Probably 2-3 at the most.

[Kohlecane]

Gut wants to say Two, but with this last week stirring up and depending how the models handle this last week of June I was torn between 3-4

[cycloneye]

Thanks to all that voted. Two was the clear winner but let's see in reality what happens on July.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like I may lose because there will have to be 0 more storms the rest of this month to stay at 1. I think the first half might feature nothing more, but the second half I highly doubt.

[Teban54]

It's July 2 and we are already at 2 storms...

[WiscoWx02]

It's July 2 and we are already at 2 storms...

Right? Thing is though I doubt we’ll see anymore this month given the extremely strong suppressed CCKW that will likely stunt development till at least early August.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's July 2 and we are already at 2 storms...

Right? Thing is though I doubt we’ll see anymore this month given the extremely strong suppressed CCKW that will likely stunt development till at least early August.

The caveat there is, this suppressive CCKW must be extraordinarily powerful in order to completely shut down the Atlantic, where not even a pop up subtropical system like Colin can form. Sort of like 2021, I guess? Who knows, maybe you are right, though I personally still think it’s somewhat more likely that we see at least Danielle or Earl before we reach August.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Anywhere from 2 -5. I’m going with 2 but I think 3 named storms is a reasonable prospect as well. We could have 5 if the switch turns on in early July but <1% of that IMHO.

The switch done turned on. Eating my shoe.