BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022
...BONNIE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 115.3W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 115.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a
quick westward motion forecast to continue through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength on
Friday and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). Over the past few hours, a Mexican navy automatic weather
station on Clarion Island reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70
km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022
Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved since this morning
with the formation of a well-defined 15-n mi-wide eye and cloud
tops as cold as -70 to -75 degrees Celsius. The hurricane has
seemingly not weakened, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt as
a blend of Dvorak estimates of 5.0 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. Bonnie is forecast to move over increasingly cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable atmosphere within the next day
or so, and those factors should induce a resumption of weakening.
Given the hurricane's improved structure, the official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the IVCN consensus at 12 hours,
but then falls in line with the consensus guidance after that time.
Bonnie could lose all organized deep convection by Saturday, and it
is therefore shown as a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. The
post-tropical low is expected to degenerate into a trough by day 4
(Monday).
The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest
(285/13 kt). The track guidance is more tightly packed than
normal, and there is high confidence that Bonnie will turn westward
and accelerate tonight, reaching its fastest motion Friday night.
The weakening low is expected to continue on a quick westward
track south of the low-level ridge until it dissipates. The new
NHC track forecast is right on top of the previous prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.1N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/0600Z 19.8N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/1800Z 19.9N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022
...BONNIE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 115.3W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 115.3 West. Bonnie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a
quick westward motion forecast to continue through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bonnie is expected to weaken below hurricane strength on
Friday and then become a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km). Over the past few hours, a Mexican navy automatic weather
station on Clarion Island reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70
km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022
Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved since this morning
with the formation of a well-defined 15-n mi-wide eye and cloud
tops as cold as -70 to -75 degrees Celsius. The hurricane has
seemingly not weakened, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt as
a blend of Dvorak estimates of 5.0 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. Bonnie is forecast to move over increasingly cooler
waters and into a drier, more stable atmosphere within the next day
or so, and those factors should induce a resumption of weakening.
Given the hurricane's improved structure, the official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the IVCN consensus at 12 hours,
but then falls in line with the consensus guidance after that time.
Bonnie could lose all organized deep convection by Saturday, and it
is therefore shown as a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. The
post-tropical low is expected to degenerate into a trough by day 4
(Monday).
The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest
(285/13 kt). The track guidance is more tightly packed than
normal, and there is high confidence that Bonnie will turn westward
and accelerate tonight, reaching its fastest motion Friday night.
The weakening low is expected to continue on a quick westward
track south of the low-level ridge until it dissipates. The new
NHC track forecast is right on top of the previous prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.1N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 10/0600Z 19.8N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 10/1800Z 19.9N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg