2022 Tropical Waves

[cycloneye]

Wave #17 at 00:05 UTC discussion on 7/3/22.

A new tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with
axis extending along 16W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted over the southern portion of the
wave.

[cycloneye]

Waves 16-17 on 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/4/22.

A tropical wave extends along 20W in the eastern Atlantic, from
03N to 18N, moving W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated
and weak north of the monsoon trough. Scattered convection is
found south of the monsoon trough near the wave axis and described
below.

A tropical wave extends along 56W in the Atlantic, from 06N to
23N, moving W at 20 kt. This wave is moving through a generally
dryand stable atmospheric environment. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the ITCZ 08N to 11N between 50W and 60W.

[Steve H.]

Interesting spin in the Mona passage this morning associated with this wave. No deep convection with it and I’m sure nothing will come of it but caught my eye. Very quiet in the Atlantic otherwise…for now

[cycloneye]

Waves 16-17 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/5/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W from 02N to
18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 08N, between 23W and 31W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 63W from 06N to
22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed behind the wave from 08N to 12N, between
55W and 61W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from
10.5N to 12.5N between 63W and 65W, and from 19N to 20N between
62W and 64W.

[underthwx]

Waves 16-17 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/5/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W from 02N to
18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 06N to 08N, between 23W and 31W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 63W from 06N to
22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed behind the wave from 08N to 12N, between
55W and 61W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from
10.5N to 12.5N between 63W and 65W, and from 19N to 20N between
62W and 64W.

Good morning Luis....is this wave (Eastern Atlantic) mentioned in this outlook in reference to the wave just off the coast of Africa?...the wave looks fairly healthy...

[cycloneye]

Is not wave 17. That should be a new wave introduced later today.

[underthwx]

Is not wave 17. That should be a new wave introduced later today.

Thank you for your reply CE!. As I mentioned in my previous post, the tropical wave looks healthy on satellite imagery, I wonder if it will progress to an Invest in the coming days?

[weeniepatrol]

Is not wave 17. That should be a new wave introduced later today.

Thank you for your reply CE!. As I mentioned in my previous post, the tropical wave looks healthy on satellite imagery, I wonder if it will progress to an Invest in the coming days?

Probably not; waves usually look healthy when they are emerging off Africa then degrade as they enter the trade wind flow

Exception is during cape verde season in August and September when conditions become favorable enough for immediate development

[ouragans]

Waves 16-17 at 0:05 UTC

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 18N southward, and moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 25W and 30W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W from Puerto Rico to Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave near Trinidad and Tobago from 07N to 13N between 59W and 64W, and also ahead of the wave near Puerto Rico.

[underthwx]

Is not wave 17. That should be a new wave introduced later today.

Thank you for your reply CE!. As I mentioned in my previous post, the tropical wave looks healthy on satellite imagery, I wonder if it will progress to an Invest in the coming days?

Probably not; waves usually look healthy when they are emerging off Africa then degrade as they enter the trade wind flow

Exception is during cape verde season in August and September when conditions become favorable enough for immediate development

Thankyuu for replying!

[cycloneye]

Waves 16-17 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/6/22.

underthwx, Wave 17 is the one with that convection as they pushed back the axis 4 degrees at 00z.

The eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located along 30W from 17N
southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted well behind the from from 08N to 12N between
23W and 25W, while scattered moderate convection is observed near
the ITCZ from 05.5N-08N between 25W and 32W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W from 21N southward to
Venezuela, moving W around 15 kt. No significant deep convection
is occurring over water in association with this wave, while
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted inland over
Venezuela behind the wave south of 09.5N.

[cycloneye]

Wave #18 has been introduced in front of wave #17.

[underthwx]

Wave #18 has been introduced in front of wave #17.

https://i.imgur.com/NWuejbW.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/MpqdrRy.gif

Do you anticipate Wave #18 to progress to the Invest level?

[cycloneye]

Wave #18 has been introduced in front of wave #17.

https://i.imgur.com/NWuejbW.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/MpqdrRy.gif

Do you anticipate Wave #18 to progress to the Invest level?

Not without organized convection.

[cycloneye]

Text at 18:05 UTC discuccion of Wave #18 that was introduced at 12z surface analysis.

A tropical wave has been introduced in the central Atlantic based
on wave diagnostic and Hovmoller diagram guidance. The wave is
located along 49W, south of 22N and moving W around 15-20 kt. No
significant deep convection is associated with this feature.

[cycloneye]

Waves 16-18-17 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 6/7/22.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W and S of 20N,
moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection in
association with this wave is well ahead of it from 08N to 13N
between 32W and 43W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 10N
to 21N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N to 10N between 51W and 55W.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending from 23N72W to
09N78W, moving W 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted across the northern portion of the wave from the
Windward Passage to the sough coast of Jamaica.

[cycloneye]

Wave #19 has been introduced near the West coast of Africa.

[cycloneye]

Waves 16-18-17-19 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/8/22. FYI= if you are not following this thread, wave 18 was introduced in front of wave 17 and that is why there is not an order on the numbers.

A tropical wave extends it axis along 18W from 07N to 18N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 14W
and 19W. Similar convective activity is behind the wave axis over
parts Guinea Bissau and southern Senegal.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis along 43W,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 09N to 11N
between 40W and 45W. African dust surrounds most of the wave
axis.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis along
62W from 07N to 20N, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air is
limited convection associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea and extends from western
Cuba to near western Panama moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave appears
to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms between the Cayman
Islands and the southern coast of Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Waves 16 thru 19 at 12:UTC discussion on 7/9/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 22W from
17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited
near the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from
19N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted across the southern portion of the wave where
it meets the ITCZ.

Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean and extends
its axis from western Puerto Rico to central Venezuela. Scattered
showers are noted near the southern end of the wave over
Venezuela.

A tropical wave is reaching the Yucatan peninsula with axis along
88W from 22N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis over Honduras
and El Salvador.

[cycloneye]

Waves 17 thru 19 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/10/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from
17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from
08N-10N.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 19N
southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N-11N between 54W-63W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 77W, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern
end of the wave axis mainly S of 11N.