2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.imgur.com/PtvAIL9.png
EPAC is anomalously active right now despite unfavorable environment. Not a good sign for the Atlantic.

It's 11 July + west of 120W is very much not that unfavorable

[zzh]

https://i.imgur.com/PtvAIL9.png
EPAC is anomalously active right now despite unfavorable environment. Not a good sign for the Atlantic.

What do you mean about "not a good sign for the Atlantic"?

An active EPAC usually means a quiet Atlantic.

[NotSparta]

https://i.imgur.com/PtvAIL9.png
EPAC is anomalously active right now despite unfavorable environment. Not a good sign for the Atlantic.

What do you mean about "not a good sign for the Atlantic"?

An active EPAC usually means a quiet Atlantic.

I recall the EPAC activity kept the Atlantic quiet in 2017

[zzh]

https://i.imgur.com/PtvAIL9.png
EPAC is anomalously active right now despite unfavorable environment. Not a good sign for the Atlantic.

It's 11 July + west of 120W is very much not that unfavorable

https://i.imgur.com/CsVDqQf.png

https://i.imgur.com/rVDAsxN.gif

1. Nearly all EPAC storms formed around 100W and only Darby reached 120W.
2. It doesn't matter what time it is right now. EPAC so far is way above its climatology.

[weeniepatrol]

The epac famously began and ended well above climo in 2018, shutting down the Atlantic. There were hardly any depressions that year, let alone above-average ACE!

[cycloneye]

The epac famously began and ended well above climo in 2018, shutting down the Atlantic. There were hardly any depressions that year, let alone above-average ACE!

Well, then came Michael.

[weeniepatrol]

The epac famously began and ended well above climo in 2018, shutting down the Atlantic. There were hardly any depressions that year, let alone above-average ACE!

Well, then came Michael.

Yes, I'm being facetious. Once again, for the Atlantic, June + July account for 7% of climatological ACE. EPAC activity within THIS time frame matters quite little. If the EPAC continues this streak through September, then there would be a strong argument to be made

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/PtvAIL9.png
EPAC is anomalously active right now despite unfavorable environment. Not a good sign for the Atlantic.

What do you mean about "not a good sign for the Atlantic"?

An active EPAC usually means a quiet Atlantic.

You really believe the Atlantic will be below average? Wait from August 15th and beyond.

[zzh]

What do you mean about "not a good sign for the Atlantic"?

An active EPAC usually means a quiet Atlantic.

You really believe the Atlantic will be below average? Wait from August 15th and beyond.

Not saying that. We will see if the EPAC shuts down after these storms. If it does, the doors are still open for the Atlantic. If it doesn't, then I think the ceiling is set.

[toad strangler]

An active EPAC usually means a quiet Atlantic.

You really believe the Atlantic will be below average?

Not saying that. We will see if the EPAC shuts down after these storms. If it does, the doors are still open for the Atlantic. If it doesn't, then I think the ceiling is set.

I don’t this is a reasonable take at all and far too simplistic. We are still nearly SIX weeks away from when William Gray would ring the Atlantic Bell.

[weeniepatrol]

An active EPAC usually means a quiet Atlantic.

You really believe the Atlantic will be below average? Wait from August 15th and beyond.

Not saying that. We will see if the EPAC shuts down after these storms. If it does, the doors are still open for the Atlantic. If it doesn't, then I think the ceiling is set.

OK; thank you for the clarification that makes a lot more sense. We are still so far away from when the Atlantic typically becomes active though

[cycloneye]

Here in S2K we go thru this when the Atlantic is quiet including those season canceled posts. Wait from August 15 and beyond when normally the real lid will go off.

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol, if you think the EPAC is busy while the Atlantic is quiet, just look at the WPAC. Atlantic shouldn’t feel ashamed one bit lol

[zzh]

Lol, if you think the EPAC is busy while the Atlantic is quiet, just look at the WPAC. Atlantic shouldn’t feel ashamed one bit lol

All I said was "An active EPAC season usually means a quiet Atlantic season". Can you tell me what's wrong with that? Also, I did not say "The Atlantic is quiet now means it will be quiet in peak season".

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol, if you think the EPAC is busy while the Atlantic is quiet, just look at the WPAC. Atlantic shouldn’t feel ashamed one bit lol

All I said was "An active EPAC season usually means a quiet Atlantic season". Can you tell me what's wrong with that? Also, I did not say "The Atlantic is quiet now means it will be quiet in peak season".

Oh, I wasn't pointing out or criticizing what you said. Sorry about the confusion and if it seemed like that was the case; that wasn't my intention at all. There's nothing wrong with what you said and I totally agree with your sentiment. I was simply pointing out that it's sort of interesting to see how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC in NSs and ACE thus far.

[toad strangler]

Lol, if you think the EPAC is busy while the Atlantic is quiet, just look at the WPAC. Atlantic shouldn’t feel ashamed one bit lol

All I said was "An active EPAC season usually means a quiet Atlantic season". Can you tell me what's wrong with that? Also, I did not say "The Atlantic is quiet now means it will be quiet in peak season".

Oh, I wasn't pointing out or criticizing what you said. Sorry about the confusion and if it seemed like that was the case; that wasn't my intention at all. There's nothing wrong with what you said and I totally agree with your sentiment. I was simply pointing out that it's sort of interesting to see how the EPAC is even beating the WPAC in NSs and ACE thus far.

I don't agree with that sentiment at all. The EPAC being busy this time of year even in a La Nina isn't overly anomalous. I'm not criticizing zzh in a way to disparage him. Look, this was what was said:

"EPAC is anomalously active right now despite unfavorable environment. Not a good sign for the Atlantic."

Unless he meant just for the next several weeks in which case I would be in full agreement. But he said "not a good sign" as in down the road. Which makes no sense to me at all because the Atlantic is going through it's early season struggles with SAL and upper level issues like it nearly always does this time of year. The impressive pro activity signals that we have all been talking about are for the mid August onward period for the most part. Anyone who has been down this road multiple times before knows how this turns come a point sometime in August. Sans 2013

[USTropics]

Lol, if you think the EPAC is busy while the Atlantic is quiet, just look at the WPAC. Atlantic shouldn’t feel ashamed one bit lol

All I said was "An active EPAC season usually means a quiet Atlantic season". Can you tell me what's wrong with that? Also, I did not say "The Atlantic is quiet now means it will be quiet in peak season".

You're 100% correct, typically EPAC seasons that feature higher percentile ACE years (+180 ACE) correlate to lower ACE values in the Atlantic:


However, there is more of a correlation between high ACE values in both the EPAC + WPAC comparative to the Atlantic:


We're not currently seeing that type of activity in the WPAC, and while the EPAC ACE is high for mid-July (~40 compared to 22 for 1991-2020 climo period), storm count is at the climatological mean (5th storm typically forms July 15th in the EPAC). As you stated, EPAC would have to continue to churn ACE to the tune of 180+ (so 140 more ACE) to start to see the correlation between lower ACE values in the Atlantic. Typically we would also see some type of driving force to substantiate this (such as ENSO state). You can see this has the highest correlation below with ONI plot for ASO of each year:


Given the relative higher latitude position of the ITCZ compared to previous seasons, once the background state in the Atlantic turns more favorable, these waves (or storms in the case of Bonnie) that are continuously crossing over Central America and into the EPAC to act as seeds will begin to lift more north into the Caribbean or North Atlantic.

I published these as interactive charts if you want to see specific values:
EPAC + ATL ACE: - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive
EPAC + ATL + WPAC ACE - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive
EPAC + ATL ACE + ONI (ASO) - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol, if you think the EPAC is busy while the Atlantic is quiet, just look at the WPAC. Atlantic shouldn’t feel ashamed one bit lol

All I said was "An active EPAC season usually means a quiet Atlantic season". Can you tell me what's wrong with that? Also, I did not say "The Atlantic is quiet now means it will be quiet in peak season".

You're 100% correct, typically EPAC seasons that feature higher percentile ACE years (+180 ACE) correlate to lower ACE values in the Atlantic:
https://i.imgur.com/wn9aEPY.png

However, there is more of a correlation between high ACE values in both the EPAC + WPAC comparative to the Atlantic:
https://i.imgur.com/BQSfLwg.png

We're not currently seeing that type of activity in the WPAC, and while the EPAC ACE is high for mid-July (~40 compared to 22 for 1991-2020 climo period), storm count is at the climatological mean (5th storm typically forms July 15th in the EPAC). As you stated, EPAC would have to continue to churn ACE to the tune of 180+ (so 140 more ACE) to start to see the correlation between lower ACE values in the Atlantic. Typically we would also see some type of driving force to substantiate this (such as ENSO state). You can see this has the highest correlation below with ONI plot for ASO of each year:
https://imgur.com/qQYuGIv.png

Given the relative higher latitude position of the ITCZ compared to previous seasons, once the background state in the Atlantic turns more favorable, these waves (or storms in the case of Bonnie) that are continuously crossing over Central America and into the EPAC to act as seeds will begin to lift more north into the Caribbean or North Atlantic.

I published these as interactive charts if you want to see specific values:
EPAC + ATL ACE: - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive
EPAC + ATL + WPAC ACE - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive
EPAC + ATL ACE + ONI (ASO) - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive

Very good analysis there USTropics! Yeah, what I find particularly odd here is how the EPAC remains active but the WPAC is very quiet. In fact, it's looking very likely that we'll see 6 total NSs in the EPAC soon while the WPAC remains quiet with no strong model backing for any major system there anytime soon. Even in unusually active years like 2011, the WPAC had considerable amounts of activity that had happened and were happening as the EPAC was churning up storms in the June/July months. At least this year, there definitely seems to be a disconnect between EPAC and WPAC activity.

[USTropics]

All I said was "An active EPAC season usually means a quiet Atlantic season". Can you tell me what's wrong with that? Also, I did not say "The Atlantic is quiet now means it will be quiet in peak season".

You're 100% correct, typically EPAC seasons that feature higher percentile ACE years (+180 ACE) correlate to lower ACE values in the Atlantic:
https://i.imgur.com/wn9aEPY.png

However, there is more of a correlation between high ACE values in both the EPAC + WPAC comparative to the Atlantic:
https://i.imgur.com/BQSfLwg.png

We're not currently seeing that type of activity in the WPAC, and while the EPAC ACE is high for mid-July (~40 compared to 22 for 1991-2020 climo period), storm count is at the climatological mean (5th storm typically forms July 15th in the EPAC). As you stated, EPAC would have to continue to churn ACE to the tune of 180+ (so 140 more ACE) to start to see the correlation between lower ACE values in the Atlantic. Typically we would also see some type of driving force to substantiate this (such as ENSO state). You can see this has the highest correlation below with ONI plot for ASO of each year:
https://imgur.com/qQYuGIv.png

Given the relative higher latitude position of the ITCZ compared to previous seasons, once the background state in the Atlantic turns more favorable, these waves (or storms in the case of Bonnie) that are continuously crossing over Central America and into the EPAC to act as seeds will begin to lift more north into the Caribbean or North Atlantic.

I published these as interactive charts if you want to see specific values:
EPAC + ATL ACE: - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive
EPAC + ATL + WPAC ACE - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive
EPAC + ATL ACE + ONI (ASO) - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... nteractive

Very good analysis there USTropics! Yeah, what I find particularly odd here is how the EPAC remains active but the WPAC is very quiet. In fact, it's looking very likely that we'll see 6 total NSs in the EPAC soon while the WPAC remains quiet with no strong model backing for any major system there anytime soon. Even in unusually active years like 2011, the WPAC had considerable amounts of activity that had happened and were happening as the EPAC was churning up storms in the June/July months. At least this year, there definitely seems to be a disconnect between EPAC and WPAC activity.

I would have to dig a bit further into this, but given how both 2021 and 2022 featured extremely anomalous rising motion over the Eastern Atlantic/Western Africa in June (see charts below) and both seasons have exhibited active Junes/July in the EPAC, I would say that has some correlation (would need to look at other seasons with -VP anomalies and + EPAC June/July activity):




Even in the suppressed phase, the ITCZ and wave train has remained convectively active:

[Category5Kaiju]

Also, take a look at these:

2017 EPAC


2008 EPAC


1998 EPAC


Then look at what the Atlantic did afterwards.