2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

I personally don’t put an ounce of stock in ECMWF anything. How could anyone given it’s awful recent history in the tropics of being blind sometimes 48 hours out? Let alone 45 days?

But it’s one of the big globals and a tool nonetheless. So it must be in the conversation. I suppose


The signals are on the table. That’s what the longer range models are decent at. Activity will come. Never forget 2017!

I here ya, 2017 had a much, much warmer Atlantic than we have this year. Just saying...

That could actually make this year more dangerous for land. If disturbances fail to develop over the tropical Atlantic, they may find more favorable conditions further west like the Caribbean and Gulf where water temperatures are very warm. Something like this would be similar to 2020 or 2005 in terms of where the majority of activity took place.

The Gulf is super warm and all extended models and seasonal models show increased activity there. Even this weekly EPS has some members blow up in the Gulf and the precipitation plots increased in anomalies for the GOM as well.

[toad strangler]

I personally don’t put an ounce of stock in ECMWF anything. How could anyone given it’s awful recent history in the tropics of being blind sometimes 48 hours out? Let alone 45 days?

But it’s one of the big globals and a tool nonetheless. So it must be in the conversation. I suppose


The signals are on the table. That’s what the longer range models are decent at. Activity will come. Never forget 2017!

2017 was a completely different beast SST wise. We are nowhere close to it. As for the extended forecast, the extended EPS runs at a much more finer resolution than the seasonal models which are very coarse in comparison. This is only one run obviously and more than likely it will not hold but at the same time, it’s not something to be dismissed because “it’s the EURO”.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220712/6f7373371038af5ac1ecb8b6737b5bc2.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220712/1f6eabda40e3caea3ce47d915fa160ed.jpg

Fair enough but to be clear, I dismiss ALL long range models when it comes to output on where individual storms or smaller sections of the basin they may go. I look at them for general set up only. We shall see.

Also, my comment about 2017 was about how even just a week before the basin started to pop in August there was rampant talk about a busted season. Had nothing to do with an individual indicator such as SST’s. My bad for assuming most here would get that.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think this year will be a pretty good test to see how activity would be impacted with a cooler subtropics and 3rd year La Niña state, all of which are features that differentiate this year from the most active recent years like 2017 and 2020. That cooler subtropics aspect is particular intriguing imho, because you would think that something like that could theoretically make this season more favorable than 2017 in a sense (regardless of sst anomalies) as such would destabilize the MDR to a heavier degree.

[skyline385]

I think this year will be a pretty good test to see how activity would be impacted with a cooler subtropics and 3rd year La Niña state, all of which are features that differentiate this year from the most active recent years like 2017 and 2020. That cooler subtropics aspect is particular intriguing imho, because you would think that something like that could theoretically make this season more favorable than 2017 in a sense (regardless of sst anomalies) as such would destabilize the MDR to a heavier degree.

I agree this will be a unique year to analyze. However if you look at the Phil’s ACE-SST correlation in the CSU forecast, it seems there really isn’t a proof of hotter or cooler subtropics affecting the seasonal ACE. There is just a small area in the middle which can negatively affect ACE but that spot is tiny. Also if you compare this plot with 2017, you can see how it was almost the perfect setup SST-wise (and we are right now plenty far away from it). It’s not going to be easy to beat that setup SST-wise.

[skyline385]

I personally don’t put an ounce of stock in ECMWF anything. How could anyone given it’s awful recent history in the tropics of being blind sometimes 48 hours out? Let alone 45 days?

But it’s one of the big globals and a tool nonetheless. So it must be in the conversation. I suppose


The signals are on the table. That’s what the longer range models are decent at. Activity will come. Never forget 2017!

2017 was a completely different beast SST wise. We are nowhere close to it. As for the extended forecast, the extended EPS runs at a much more finer resolution than the seasonal models which are very coarse in comparison. This is only one run obviously and more than likely it will not hold but at the same time, it’s not something to be dismissed because “it’s the EURO”.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220712/6f7373371038af5ac1ecb8b6737b5bc2.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220712/1f6eabda40e3caea3ce47d915fa160ed.jpg

Fair enough but to be clear, I dismiss ALL long range models when it comes to output on where individual storms or smaller sections of the basin they may go. I look at them for general set up only. We shall see.

Also, my comment about 2017 was about how even just a week before the basin started to pop in August there was rampant talk about a busted season. Had nothing to do with an individual indicator such as SST’s. My bad for assuming most here would get that.

2017 was a very different year setup wise. Also ENSO went from -0.1C to -0.7C in two months during peak season (remember ENSO is dynamic) with a very ideal SST setup in the basin so it was no surprise that it blew up.

[toad strangler]

2017 was a completely different beast SST wise. We are nowhere close to it. As for the extended forecast, the extended EPS runs at a much more finer resolution than the seasonal models which are very coarse in comparison. This is only one run obviously and more than likely it will not hold but at the same time, it’s not something to be dismissed because “it’s the EURO”.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220712/6f7373371038af5ac1ecb8b6737b5bc2.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220712/1f6eabda40e3caea3ce47d915fa160ed.jpg

Fair enough but to be clear, I dismiss ALL long range models when it comes to output on where individual storms or smaller sections of the basin they may go. I look at them for general set up only. We shall see.

Also, my comment about 2017 was about how even just a week before the basin started to pop in August there was rampant talk about a busted season. Had nothing to do with an individual indicator such as SST’s. My bad for assuming most here would get that.

2017 was a very different year setup wise. Also ENSO went from -0.1C to -0.7C in two months during peak season (remember ENSO is dynamic) with a very ideal SST setup in the basin so it was no surprise that it blew up.

I feel like I’m on a hampster wheel lol

Yes, it was no surprise that 2017 blew up. To most of us including myself. That was the given (I thought).

Also the atmosphere doesn’t always respond to ENSO changes at the same rate of speed. At least that’s what I’ve thought I learned over the years. Nothing is that black and white. Every season is different and would be even with conditions the exact same as a previous year. Which is probably impossible anyway.



Onward!

[skyline385]

Fair enough but to be clear, I dismiss ALL long range models when it comes to output on where individual storms or smaller sections of the basin they may go. I look at them for general set up only. We shall see.

Also, my comment about 2017 was about how even just a week before the basin started to pop in August there was rampant talk about a busted season. Had nothing to do with an individual indicator such as SST’s. My bad for assuming most here would get that.

2017 was a very different year setup wise. Also ENSO went from -0.1C to -0.7C in two months during peak season (remember ENSO is dynamic) with a very ideal SST setup in the basin so it was no surprise that it blew up.

I feel like I’m on a hampster wheel lol

Yes, it was no surprise that 2017 blew up. To most of us including myself. That was the given (I thought).

Also the atmosphere doesn’t always respond to ENSO changes at the same rate of speed. At least that’s what I’ve thought I learned over the years. Nothing is that black and white. Every season is different and would be even with conditions the exact same as a previous year. Which is probably impossible anyway.



Onward!

Don’t worry i get the same feeling a lot of times here too lol.

[weeniepatrol]

I personally don’t put an ounce of stock in ECMWF anything. How could anyone given it’s awful recent history in the tropics of being blind sometimes 48 hours out? Let alone 45 days?

But it’s one of the big globals and a tool nonetheless. So it must be in the conversation. I suppose


The signals are on the table. That’s what the longer range models are decent at. Activity will come. Never forget 2017!

2017 was a completely different beast SST wise. We are nowhere close to it. As for the extended forecast, the extended EPS runs at a much more finer resolution than the seasonal models which are very coarse in comparison. This is only one run obviously and more than likely it will not hold but at the same time, it’s not something to be dismissed because “it’s the EURO”.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220712/6f7373371038af5ac1ecb8b6737b5bc2.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220712/1f6eabda40e3caea3ce47d915fa160ed.jpg

SSTs are not everything

[weeniepatrol]

SSTs are not everything

This is just one piece of the puzzle, but for example...

Instability is a function of the vertical gradient in temperature. We can see that the tropopause is far cooler than 2017! Never be deceived that modest SSTs precludes hyperactivity especially in the context of this years' CSU and NOAA forecasts

h/t to Alex Boreham

[weeniepatrol]

Global discussion here! Worth the read

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

[InfernoFlameCat]

The models correctly predicted the massive ULL currently over the Caribbean and much of the western open Atlantic. Let’s see if it does lift up. Do TUTTs help with clearing out the SAL or are they too far high up to affect the lower levels of the troposphere?

[cycloneye]

The models correctly predicted the massive ULL currently over the Caribbean and much of the western open Atlantic. Let’s see if it does lift up. Do TUTTs help with clearing out the SAL or are they too far high up to affect the lower levels of the troposphere?

Here it is.

[St0rmTh0r]

The thing the models are showing is the bell ringing early for the big stuff this year, similar to 2004 but let’s hope something unforeseen happens like more of a TUTT or an unforeseen trough to recurve systems because if not this could be a blockbuster season with many hurricane landfalls but as said above unforeseen things can and sometimes do happen

this is looking like a year that could feature the longest stretch of storms eve seen. August thru november of non stop storms is possible.

Err nothing so far has implied that so I would suggest to keep expectations in check. It might be a hyperactive season but we haven't had any indications of a record breaking season yet. A continuous stretch of storms from August to Nov would be a repeat of 2020 with May-July removed and we don't have the setup for that.

i beg to disagree, conditions are arguably more favorable than 2020 and 21. id place a wager this year has a higher ACE than both of those years. however im not a betting man.

[NotSparta]

The models correctly predicted the massive ULL currently over the Caribbean and much of the western open Atlantic. Let’s see if it does lift up. Do TUTTs help with clearing out the SAL or are they too far high up to affect the lower levels of the troposphere?

They have nothing much to do with SAL, way too high up. They mostly just cause shear but sometimes upper divergence in certain spots

[IsabelaWeather]

SSTs are not everything

This is just one piece of the puzzle, but for example...

Instability is a function of the vertical gradient in temperature. We can see that the tropopause is far cooler than 2017! Never be deceived that modest SSTs precludes hyperactivity especially in the context of this years' CSU and NOAA forecasts

h/t to Alex Boreham

https://i.imgur.com/ujvkt5d.png

https://i.imgur.com/i9R0WDd.png

https://i.imgur.com/0WAqIaS.png

What would cause the Tpause to be cooler? Does that mean its higher up than normal, or is the whole atmosphere cooler?

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1547047703972118530

[USTropics]

SSTs are not everything

This is just one piece of the puzzle, but for example...

Instability is a function of the vertical gradient in temperature. We can see that the tropopause is far cooler than 2017! Never be deceived that modest SSTs precludes hyperactivity especially in the context of this years' CSU and NOAA forecasts

h/t to Alex Boreham

https://i.imgur.com/ujvkt5d.png

https://i.imgur.com/i9R0WDd.png

https://i.imgur.com/0WAqIaS.png

What would cause the Tpause to be cooler? Does that mean its higher up than normal, or is the whole atmosphere cooler?

Numerous forcing conditions can cause anomalous temperature changes, this includes natural and anthropogenic. To start, the second part of your question is a bit easier to answer. The height of the tropopause is usually dictated by a) location (more specifically, the latitude) and b) seasonal changes (winter/summer). You're absolutely correct that the temperature change results in the lowering (colder temperatures) or raising (warmer temperatures) of the tropopause. Below is an image of different heights given different locations/seasons:


The first part of your question is multifaceted, and can range from natural (solar radiation, cycles, oscillations, volcanic activity, etc.) or anthropogenic (greenhouse gas emissions), but I'll focus more on what usually drives anomalous temperature changes in the tropopause. The main driving force in the tropics is tied to ENSO and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Ocean temperatures in the Pacific dominates interannual variability/anomalies in the troposphere all the way up to the lowermost stratosphere. During an El Nino event, the tropical troposphere warms and pushes the tropopause (essentially the divergent/boundary line between the troposphere and stratosphere); during a La Nina event, the tropical troposphere cools which causes the tropopause to descend. In addition, ENSO alters some of the atmospheric circulation cells, such as the Walker and Hadley circulations. Below is an image of the tropopause and how difference oscillations/cells can alter the height:


How does this impact cyclones? It's mostly cyclogenesis that be enhanced by the gradient difference. We can see this in particular during winter storms (see animation and article below from Jack Sillin at Weather.us):

https://blog.weather.us/dynamic-tropopause/

Also will point out that cyclones themselves can have a direct impact on the tropopause structure, mainly through latent heat release, but also through a process known as stratosphere–troposphere exchange (sparing the exact details, it relates to ozone and water vapor budget though). The main takeaway is a persistent (and normally strong system) can enhance the air mass exchange between the troposphere and stratosphere. Since these changes occur mostly at the tropopause where the boundary is, it can also alter the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region. You can read more about those processes here - https://d-nb.info/1141098229/34

[skyline385]

Long-range GEFS lacking in activity to the EPS weeklies

[Category5Kaiju]

Long-range GEFS lacking in activity to the EPS weeklies

https://media.giphy.com/media/J8dKBhP7QXeLmBCepQ/giphy.gif

Hmm, that seems a bit radical if you had to ask me for there to be virtually nothing for the next 35 days. Typically, these ultra-long-range models don't really sniff out some storm reliably until closer to the 16-day range (looking out 35 days, especially with GEFS, on one run would show you a blowup of storms while another run would be crickets; at least this is what I have observed personally). Even 16 days is a bit iffy sometimes; if anything, 8 days or less are typically when there is a higher degree of confidence that arises regarding whether a storm will form or not.

Now it doesn't hurt to look at general patterns, but maybe the question is, how favorable is activity predicted to be later this month and early next? At least VP-wise? Something tells me that all of this activity that the EPAC is having would conceivably and eventually make its way onto the Atlantic side and possibly spark a storm or what not later this month.

[hurricane2025]

Always quiet in july