Strong TUTT low in the western Atlantic/Caribbean

[InfernoFlameCat]

I don’t recall such a vigorous TUTT in a while. Thoughts?

[cycloneye]

You did not add a loop so here it is.

[tropicwatch]

That thing is incredibly large. Vorticity current looks to be at the 200-500mb range.

[Patrick99]

That is a beast of an ULL. I hope it brings rain to Florida, though these things tend to bust on delivering widespread rain all too often.

[AutoPenalti]

Which side shears a TC and which side enhances it?

[skyline385]

Which side shears a TC and which side enhances it?

Could be wrong here but iirc it shears a TC on the south side (opposite direction spin) and helps on the north side by enhancing the outflow.

[Category5Kaiju]

Which side shears a TC and which side enhances it?

Could be wrong here but iirc it shears a TC on the south side (opposite direction spin) and helps on the north side by enhancing the outflow.

Yup, the most prominent example of the north side siding outflow was Irma! Plus, it was genuinely amazing how Jose got that strong so close to Irma and the TUTT that it was associated with.

[skyline385]

Which side shears a TC and which side enhances it?

Could be wrong here but iirc it shears a TC on the south side (opposite direction spin) and helps on the north side by enhancing the outflow.

Yup, the most prominent example of the north side siding outflow was Irma! Plus, it was genuinely amazing how Jose got that strong so close to Irma and the TUTT that it was associated with.

Michael is another good example, it was even getting sheared while in the Caribbean but once it got into the Gulf the outflow helped it blew up.

From the official NHC report, you can see the outflow of Michael enhanced by the trough to its east

[Emmett_Brown]

The GFS brings this large ULL into the W Bahamas by the weekend, where it gets absorbed by a trough approaching the US E coast. Could be a few stronger than normal afternoon storms over FL on Sat before it washes out. July in the tropics!

[weeniepatrol]

Yeah, happens all the time and the poleward outflow channel creates ideal conditions, but positioning and tilt are very important. Here's WILMA 2005

[InfernoFlameCat]

It for sure is going to help promote multicellular storm structures in Florida which is best for rain because of the vertical shear profiles. It doesn’t appear as intense as yesterday but is still very strong. We could see a strong nontropical system result from it and the front. I haven’t looked at models yet though so I don’t know.

[toad strangler]

The NWS in MLB isn't too impressed per their latest forecast discussion but good chances of showers will exist.

Friday-Sunday...A soggy weekend appears likely across much of
Central Florida. A weak boundary/trough remains stalled across North
FL/FL panhandle, and a weak mid/upper-level low moves westward from
the Atlantic to the Bahamas and over the FL peninsula this weekend.
These features are mainly reflected in the mid to upper-levels above
700mb, while in the low levels the Atlantic ridge axis is forecast
to shift north of Central FL this weekend. The easterly flow on
Friday veers southeast on Saturday, then south on Sunday. Model
soundings indicate deeper moisture moves over Central FL this
weekend as PWATs jump to over 2.1-2.2" by Sunday.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1547544898055901184

[AJC3]

If anyone wants to learn a little MET 101, specifically, about atmospheric deformation, then take a look at the upper level (300-200MB) height and wind/streamlines analyses over the Bahamas and western Greater Antilles over the past 48 hours. Watch how the large, well-formed vortex of the TUTT low runs headfirst into an area of strong upper deformation and is now getting absolutely destroyed (pulled apart) by the process. Then look at the global model forecasts over the next day and a half, and watch the feature get finished off. Pretty amazing nerd-type stuff.

[skyline385]

If anyone wants to learn a little MET 101, specifically, about atmospheric deformation, then take a look at the upper level (300-200MB) height and wind/streamlines analyses over the Bahamas and western Greater Antilles over the past 48 hours. Watch how the large, well-formed vortex of the TUTT low runs headfirst into an area of strong upper deformation and is now getting absolutely destroyed (pulled apart) by the process. Then look at the global model forecasts over the next day and a half, and watch the feature get finished off. Pretty amazing nerd-type stuff.

What site do you recommend to see this? CIMMS which I typically use only shows data for the last 24 hours.

[ChrisH-UK]

The TUTT is starting to contract and starting a broad circulation.

Source - https://col.st/oUpsY

[AJC3]

If anyone wants to learn a little MET 101, specifically, about atmospheric deformation, then take a look at the upper level (300-200MB) height and wind/streamlines analyses over the Bahamas and western Greater Antilles over the past 48 hours. Watch how the large, well-formed vortex of the TUTT low runs headfirst into an area of strong upper deformation and is now getting absolutely destroyed (pulled apart) by the process. Then look at the global model forecasts over the next day and a half, and watch the feature get finished off. Pretty amazing nerd-type stuff.

What site do you recommend to see this? CIMMS which I typically use only shows data for the last 24 hours.

Great question. I should have checked to make sure real-time deformation analyses (or model forecasts wherein you can use the initializations as proxies) were readily available online.

Of course, now that I checked, they aren't. Had I known this, I would have started saving images in AWIPS 3 days ago. Ugh...