2022 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1546545481261654019

[cycloneye]

Here comes Estelle.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure has formed well south of the coasts of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development over the next several days, and this system
is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week. The
disturbance is forecast to drift westward through Tuesday, then
move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph later this week while
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/tylerjstanfield/status/1546560848960839681

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1546479190064730112

[cycloneye]

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression toward the
end of the week or into the weekend. The disturbance is forecast to
drift westward for the next day or two, then move west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph later this week while remaining offshore of the
southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Too bad Estelle looks like it will travel closer to the Mexican coast (a NW track) compared to a more WNW track like Bonnie and Darby. Would probably keep the intensity in check.

[Yellow Evan]

Too bad Estelle looks like it will travel closer to the Mexican coast (a NW track) compared to a more WNW track like Bonnie and Darby. Would probably keep the intensity in check.

GFS has slowly shifted east.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547267802762977281

[cycloneye]

I will also do the same.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1547274641785462785

[cycloneye]

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated
with the disturbance is beginning to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form well
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico by Friday or Saturday. The
disturbance is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two,
then move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend
while remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 96E is up

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS is quite the active run for the EPAC, makes 96E a hurricane and then has 2 more hurricanes and a TS following behind it, but it is the happy hour run so we'll have to see if any of these continue to show up on future runs.

[skyline385]

18z GFS is quite the active run for the EPAC, makes 96E a hurricane and then has 2 more hurricanes and a TS following behind it, but it is the happy hour run so we'll have to see if any of these continue to show up on future runs.

12Z had them first, still its the GFS at max range so I would wait for other model runs to get into the timeframe

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS is quite the active run for the EPAC, makes 96E a hurricane and then has 2 more hurricanes and a TS following behind it, but it is the happy hour run so we'll have to see if any of these continue to show up on future runs.

12Z had them first, still its the GFS at max range so I would wait for other model runs to get into the timeframe

https://i.imgur.com/SbkfEXa.png

That literally looks like 2018 deja vu lol. If you were to just show me that image without context, I would have to guess that it was an El Nino year

Now as of now, there's model support for 96E (which is soon-to-be Estelle I think); as for after that, it's rather unclear as to what will happen, though that GFS run definitely reeks of convective bias or MJO Pacific overamplification imho.

[aspen]

2017 seems to be one of the better analogs for this year’s EPac vs Atlantic activity. July 2017 saw excessive EPac activity while the Atlantic only squeezed out a TD and two brief, weak storms. By this point in 2017, Fernanda was two days old and would go on to become that year’s version of Darby. The month alone ended with 5/4/2, the same numbers as the entire 2022 season so far.

How do other environmental factors (ENSO strength, PMM, etc) in July 2017 compare to July 2022?

[Ntxw]

2017 seems to be one of the better analogs for this year’s EPac vs Atlantic activity. July 2017 saw excessive EPac activity while the Atlantic only squeezed out a TD and two brief, weak storms. By this point in 2017, Fernanda was two days old and would go on to become that year’s version of Darby. The month alone ended with 5/4/2, the same numbers as the entire 2022 season so far.

How do other environmental factors (ENSO strength, PMM, etc) in July 2017 compare to July 2022?

The one big caveat that doesn't work for 2017 is the PDO. 2014-2018 was a period of warm PDO overall (despite cooling a little for the Nina) it was still nested within that period of general favorability. JJA of 2017 was still warmish neutral and the PDO would not have been a deterrent. Very different than 2022.

[Category5Kaiju]

2017 seems to be one of the better analogs for this year’s EPac vs Atlantic activity. July 2017 saw excessive EPac activity while the Atlantic only squeezed out a TD and two brief, weak storms. By this point in 2017, Fernanda was two days old and would go on to become that year’s version of Darby. The month alone ended with 5/4/2, the same numbers as the entire 2022 season so far.

How do other environmental factors (ENSO strength, PMM, etc) in July 2017 compare to July 2022?

The one big caveat that doesn't work for 2017 is the PDO. 2014-2018 was a period of warm PDO overall (despite cooling a little for the Nina) it was still nested within that period of general favorability. JJA of 2017 was still warmish neutral and the PDO would not have been a deterrent. Very different than 2022.

The way I see things as well, this year is bizarre and unlike 2017 in how it's pretty much only the EPAC that is seeing this sort of high level of activity. In 2017, the WPAC had a fairly active July (along with the EPAC) while this year, it's crickets there. Have a feeling that what we're seeing is an extremely front-loaded season

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1547617158758248450




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1547618248102801410

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS still has 3 systems behind 96E, the first one becomes a TS while the other two become hurricanes. One of them bombs out to 933mb

[Astromanía]

At this rate there won't be warm waters in Epac