#15 Postby aspen » Thu Jul 14, 2022 12:58 pm
I think Estelle/96E will end up as another struggling, high-end TS like Cristina and Celia (until the latter gets upgraded in post-season). SHIPS has been forecasting some moderate shear persisting while the system is over the best SSTs, and the HWRF has kept on showing a large core taking shape. These two factors could significantly limit how much Estelle is able to intensify before shear picks up even more and SSTs drop like a rock.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.