2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[SFLcane]

My treat for S2K for today! Enjoy your weekend guys

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs0xGH6g/CFS.gif

A slower loop to see it better.

Your wish is my command!

[cycloneye]

My treat for S2K for today! Enjoy your weekend guys

https://i.postimg.cc/Hs0xGH6g/CFS.gif

A slower loop to see it better.

Your wish is my command!

https://i.postimg.cc/mktQXkYB/CFS2-JPEG.gif

Only one MDR cyclone in September?

[Spacecoast]

Transposing the above distribution into CSU 2022 forecast of:
20 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes



This suggests 8 (5 more) Named Storms, 4 Hurricanes, 1 Major by the end of August.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/xTRRMj7x/hurricane.jpg

Transposing the above distribution into CSU 2022 forecast of:
20 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

https://i.ibb.co/RTfhWWh/sched.jpg

This suggests 8 Named Stroms, 4 Hurricanes, and 1 Major will occur by the end of August.

When's our July hurricane happening? Good luck with that

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Looks like Euro and CMC are anticipating for a big monsoon trough in the eastern/central MDR by the time the MJO reaches Africa and reinvigorates the WAM later this month. Would serve to slow down trades significantly and allow for another warm up down there if it were to come to fruition.







GFS is less enthusiastic but that's probably because it stalls out the MJO further west (which would also explain the constant stream of long-range EPAC storms it keeps pumping out). Knowing GFS' biases towards phase 8 of the MJO, along with the fact that the La Niña base state isn't exactly permissive of such a pattern, I find this hard to believe for the most part.

[captainbarbossa19]

So I came across some comments on weather social media where individuals are mentioning that they have a "gut feeling" this is going to be a bust season, and their evidence is due to the SAL, wind shear, active EPAC, and TUTT. That's it.

Referring off of captainbarbossa's timeline, looks like we're on track!

Something would be off if everyone was agreeing that this season was going to be active. Models and conditions are dynamic. They will not stay the same. People are very much the same concerning opinions. A healthy discussion involves opposing arguments that can be discussed in a civil and professional manner. One of the reasons why I love S2K!

[skyline385]

Not an expert on Atl Nina either, not sure how this would work. Maybe an expert here can explain a bit.

 https://twitter.com/tybtime/status/1547950359636676610

[Category5Kaiju]

Not an expert on Atl Nina either, not sure how this would work. Maybe an expert here can explain a bit.

https://twitter.com/tybtime/status/1547950359636676610

I'm starting to wonder if this may be a season that sacrifices total NS count but compensates for general activity with more deep tropical activity (perhaps a long-lived system or two)? Like maybe a 15-18 NS total season but with quite a few powerful MDR systems or Caribbean cruisers?

[cycloneye]

How will the canary current be is going to be important.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1547951537783066624

[skyline385]

Was checking the 15 day SSTa change and wow

[skyline385]

Even crazier on the NOAA Coral Reef version

[Teban54]

Looks like Euro and CMC are anticipating for a big monsoon trough in the eastern/central MDR by the time the MJO reaches Africa and reinvigorates the WAM later this month. Would serve to slow down trades significantly and allow for another warm up down there if it were to come to fruition.

https://i.ibb.co/5snQbFc/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-6.png
https://i.ibb.co/Br1pKvb/gem-z850-vort-eatl-21-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/c8g0yV2/ec-fast-u850a-Mean-eatl-fh120-240.gif
https://i.ibb.co/TcQ4zYv/gem-u850a-Mean-eatl-fh120-240-1.gif


GFS is less enthusiastic but that's probably because it stalls out the MJO further west (which would also explain the constant stream of long-range EPAC storms it keeps pumping out). Knowing GFS' biases towards phase 8 of the MJO, along with the fact that the La Niña base state isn't exactly permissive of such a pattern, I find this hard to believe for the most part.
https://i.ibb.co/dfvJ8vz/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-31.png

Is it just me, or has "models show another period of slow trades which could warm up the MDR" been suggested numerous times since June with few of them actually materializing?

[Blown Away]

Every year same thing, total confusion in the July modeling, then @July 25- Aug 1 the switch turns on in the long range modeling and we are off!

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like Euro and CMC are anticipating for a big monsoon trough in the eastern/central MDR by the time the MJO reaches Africa and reinvigorates the WAM later this month. Would serve to slow down trades significantly and allow for another warm up down there if it were to come to fruition.

https://i.ibb.co/5snQbFc/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-6.png
https://i.ibb.co/Br1pKvb/gem-z850-vort-eatl-21-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/c8g0yV2/ec-fast-u850a-Mean-eatl-fh120-240.gif
https://i.ibb.co/TcQ4zYv/gem-u850a-Mean-eatl-fh120-240-1.gif


GFS is less enthusiastic but that's probably because it stalls out the MJO further west (which would also explain the constant stream of long-range EPAC storms it keeps pumping out). Knowing GFS' biases towards phase 8 of the MJO, along with the fact that the La Niña base state isn't exactly permissive of such a pattern, I find this hard to believe for the most part.
https://i.ibb.co/dfvJ8vz/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-31.png

Is it just me, or has "models show another period of slow trades which could warm up the MDR" been suggested numerous times since June with few of them actually materializing?

This cooling period from early to mid-July was well forecast and expected. It actually doesn't really seem to have cooled the MDR to the point that it is super below normal though (subtropics took a major beating on the other hand). If I am not mistaken though, some of these models forecast weaker trades to close out this month, so I don't really think they busted in that sense. I think if these models busted, then we would be seeing a very cold Atlantic basin as a whole, which isn't really the case considering we still have certain patches of above normal in the MDR in particular for instance

[zzh]

Not an expert on Atl Nina either, not sure how this would work. Maybe an expert here can explain a bit.

https://twitter.com/tybtime/status/1547950359636676610

Waves are more likely going to develop further west. Lower chance of long trackers and big ace producers like Sam.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Looks like Euro and CMC are anticipating for a big monsoon trough in the eastern/central MDR by the time the MJO reaches Africa and reinvigorates the WAM later this month. Would serve to slow down trades significantly and allow for another warm up down there if it were to come to fruition.

https://i.ibb.co/5snQbFc/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-6.png
https://i.ibb.co/Br1pKvb/gem-z850-vort-eatl-21-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/c8g0yV2/ec-fast-u850a-Mean-eatl-fh120-240.gif
https://i.ibb.co/TcQ4zYv/gem-u850a-Mean-eatl-fh120-240-1.gif


GFS is less enthusiastic but that's probably because it stalls out the MJO further west (which would also explain the constant stream of long-range EPAC storms it keeps pumping out). Knowing GFS' biases towards phase 8 of the MJO, along with the fact that the La Niña base state isn't exactly permissive of such a pattern, I find this hard to believe for the most part.
https://i.ibb.co/dfvJ8vz/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-31.png

Is it just me, or has "models show another period of slow trades which could warm up the MDR" been suggested numerous times since June with few of them actually materializing?

None of those prior scenarios depicted had an MJO-generated monsoon trough iirc, just -NAO and/or cutoff lows. This is different.

Additionally as mentioned above by another poster most of those modeled trade relaxations from months prior did verify, otherwise this wouldn't have happened:

[skyline385]

Looks like Euro and CMC are anticipating for a big monsoon trough in the eastern/central MDR by the time the MJO reaches Africa and reinvigorates the WAM later this month. Would serve to slow down trades significantly and allow for another warm up down there if it were to come to fruition.

https://i.ibb.co/5snQbFc/ec-fast-uv850-vort-eatl-6.png
https://i.ibb.co/Br1pKvb/gem-z850-vort-eatl-21-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/c8g0yV2/ec-fast-u850a-Mean-eatl-fh120-240.gif
https://i.ibb.co/TcQ4zYv/gem-u850a-Mean-eatl-fh120-240-1.gif


GFS is less enthusiastic but that's probably because it stalls out the MJO further west (which would also explain the constant stream of long-range EPAC storms it keeps pumping out). Knowing GFS' biases towards phase 8 of the MJO, along with the fact that the La Niña base state isn't exactly permissive of such a pattern, I find this hard to believe for the most part.
https://i.ibb.co/dfvJ8vz/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-31.png

Is it just me, or has "models show another period of slow trades which could warm up the MDR" been suggested numerous times since June with few of them actually materializing?

None of those prior scenarios depicted had an MJO-generated monsoon trough iirc, just -NAO and/or cutoff lows. This is different.

Additionally as mentioned above by another poster most of those modeled trade relaxations from months prior did verify, otherwise this wouldn't have happened:

Looking at Hovmollers from the latest EPS, the heating is most significant near the equator. It seems to be a mixed bag in the MDR.

[zzh]

Very large divergence between EPS and GEFS.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/y1Jxcp8.png
https://i.imgur.com/aiDVyFx.png
Very large divergence between EPS and GEFS.

Ya again the placement of the MJO makes all the difference. African Standing Wave on EPS vs. South American Standing Wave on GEFS.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/y1Jxcp8.png
https://i.imgur.com/aiDVyFx.png
Very large divergence between EPS and GEFS.

Ya again the placement of the MJO makes all the difference. African Standing Wave on EPS vs. South American Standing Wave on GEFS.
https://i.ibb.co/GkbQwvJ/eps-chi200-global-27.png
https://i.ibb.co/jHqF3m2/gfs-ens-chi200-global-27.png

The question is which model will be right or one with time is with the same scenario with the other one.