EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression
EP, 06, 2022071518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1006W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 009,
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression
TXPZ27 KNES 151823
TCSENP
A. 06E (NONAME)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 12.6N
D. 100.5W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...3/10 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF A 2.0 MET IS 1.5
BASED ON DEVELOPING TREND. PT AGREES WITH DT. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NGUYEN
TCSENP
A. 06E (NONAME)
B. 15/1730Z
C. 12.6N
D. 100.5W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.0/2.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...3/10 ON A LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF A 2.0 MET IS 1.5
BASED ON DEVELOPING TREND. PT AGREES WITH DT. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
BANDING FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...NGUYEN
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression
TXPZ27 KNES 160012
TCSENP
A. 06E (NONAME)
B. 15/2330Z
C. 12.9N
D. 101.9W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 4/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE
DT=2.5 MET=2.0 PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...FISHER
TCSENP
A. 06E (NONAME)
B. 15/2330Z
C. 12.9N
D. 101.9W
E. THREE/GOES-W
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 4/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE
DT=2.5 MET=2.0 PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...FISHER
0 likes
- ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 4625
- Age: 23
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression
18z HMON peaks at 979mb while HWRF has a 965mb Cat 3. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a major
0 likes
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
Boomer Sooner!
Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression
I’m still doubtful this’ll get beyond a Cat 1. While the EPac has been overachieving for a La Niña year, Blas and Celia showed that storms this season aren’t all immune to pesky Nina shear and dry air. I think the 10-15+ kt that Estelle will have to deal with over the next few days will be too much for a phase of RI, despite the improving core.
1 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139711
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression
Hello Estelle.
EP, 06, 2022071600, , BEST, 0, 130N, 1016W, 35, 1006, TS
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139711
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2604
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: EPAC: SIX-E - Tropical Depression
aspen wrote:
I’m still doubtful this’ll get beyond a Cat 1. While the EPac has been overachieving for a La Niña year, Blas and Celia showed that storms this season aren’t all immune to pesky Nina shear and dry air. I think the 10-15+ kt that Estelle will have to deal with over the next few days will be too much for a phase of RI, despite the improving core.
Its forecast to be in decently moist environment until the shear lets up so maybe it wont be much of an issue
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 7315
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm
Looks tilted but overall structure looks great right now. Hopefully no dry air issues as it's a sprawling system.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm
"Joey! It's Estelle!" (Friends reference.)
I want to put in my guess for peak intensity. 90kts. I think she'll manage a decent round of intensification, but nothing like we saw with Darby.
I want to put in my guess for peak intensity. 90kts. I think she'll manage a decent round of intensification, but nothing like we saw with Darby.
2 likes
Solar Aquarian
Lunar Cancerian
Sagittarian
Lunar Cancerian
Sagittarian
Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm
BIg storms can be slow until they mature. I say 115kts but not until near or southwest of Socorro Island.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 744
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
- Location: Monterrey, N.L, México
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm
Estelle is going to have to deal with quite a bit (18z GFS had 15-20 knots) of northeasterly shear from a ULAC located to the northeast of Estelle which will have potential to tilt the vortex, but the shear magnitude is fairly uniform so there’s less likelihood of infamous unexpected mid-level shear here, especially in the short term. It’s large size is going to make it vulnerable for dry air intrusions until Estelle transitions from banding to CDO dominant but fortunately RH values are fairly high. The way the satellite presentation has trended, I’m confident Estelle will become a hurricane in about 18 hours or so but I’m not sure if Estelle will be able to properly clear out an eye. I could see this getting stuck in the T4.5-T5.0 range for a while as convection struggles to rotate upshear.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- weeniepatrol
- Category 3
- Posts: 871
- Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 5:30 pm
- Location: WA State
- skyline385
- Category 5
- Posts: 2604
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2020 11:15 pm
- Location: Houston TX
Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Tropical Storm
Lots of towers through the night, should be a hurricane today
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests