2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://i.imgur.com/y1Jxcp8.png
https://i.imgur.com/aiDVyFx.png
Very large divergence between EPS and GEFS.

Ya again the placement of the MJO makes all the difference. African Standing Wave on EPS vs. South American Standing Wave on GEFS.
https://i.ibb.co/GkbQwvJ/eps-chi200-global-27.png
https://i.ibb.co/jHqF3m2/gfs-ens-chi200-global-27.png

The question is which model will be right or one with time is with the same scenario with the other one.

Again I'm more inclined to believe the EPS honestly, the ASW has been a mainstay over the past 6 years or so (ever since this streak of above average seasons began basically) so it would make sense for MJO progression to eventually reinvigorate it down the road. Additionally there's the fact that it's difficult to get the MJO to flounder in phase 8 simply because Niña forcing is not permissive; this is why you get the MJO zipping across the Pacific instead. There's also the GFS' bias towards phase 8 as well that should be taken into account (this is what often results in those early season phantomcanes in the Caribbean/Gulf).

[Category5Kaiju]

Ya again the placement of the MJO makes all the difference. African Standing Wave on EPS vs. South American Standing Wave on GEFS.
https://i.ibb.co/GkbQwvJ/eps-chi200-global-27.png
https://i.ibb.co/jHqF3m2/gfs-ens-chi200-global-27.png

The question is which model will be right or one with time is with the same scenario with the other one.

Again I'm more inclined to believe the EPS honestly, the ASW has been a mainstay over the past 6 years or so (ever since this streak of above average seasons began basically) so it would make sense for MJO progression to eventually reinvigorate it down the road. Additionally there's the fact that it's difficult to get the MJO to flounder in phase 8 simply because Niña forcing is not permissive; this is why you get the MJO zipping across the Pacific instead. There's also the GFS' bias towards phase 8 as well that should be taken into account (this is what often results in those early season phantomcanes in the Caribbean/Gulf).

Precisely; I would believe the GFS if it was a warm neutral or El Nino year, or if we somehow ended up in a situation like the 80s where an American Standing Wave was present (allowing the EPAC to go bonkers regardless of El Nino/La Nina state), but I simply don't see the evidence for either case (especially the +ENSO idea, for we clearly are not anywhere near +ENSO territory).

[NotSparta]

The question is which model will be right or one with time is with the same scenario with the other one.

Again I'm more inclined to believe the EPS honestly, the ASW has been a mainstay over the past 6 years or so (ever since this streak of above average seasons began basically) so it would make sense for MJO progression to eventually reinvigorate it down the road. Additionally there's the fact that it's difficult to get the MJO to flounder in phase 8 simply because Niña forcing is not permissive; this is why you get the MJO zipping across the Pacific instead. There's also the GFS' bias towards phase 8 as well that should be taken into account (this is what often results in those early season phantomcanes in the Caribbean/Gulf).

Precisely; I would believe the GFS if it was a warm neutral or El Nino year, or if we somehow ended up in a situation like the 80s where an American Standing Wave was present (allowing the EPAC to go bonkers regardless of El Nino/La Nina state), but I simply don't see the evidence for either case (especially the +ENSO idea, for we clearly are not anywhere near +ENSO territory).

Yeah an American standing wave sort of thing would certainly be a surprise. This isn't the 90s

[skyline385]

FWIW that little break in the suppressed phase over the NATL around end of July has always been on the weeklies, I mentioned it a couple of weeks back too. What's interesting is that the VP turns positive again soon after, Andy mentioned earlier that's it is very likely from a series of CCKW propagating eastwards which dominate over the MJO for the period.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1547764114130227201



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1547953930839023617

[Kingarabian]

CCKWs (and even the MJO, but the MJO lasts longer) are intra-seasonal signals that are always over powered by the background state. 2017 I remember it was stated that a suppressed CCKW would shut down activity for a few weeks then we got Harvey and Irma.

The control is too messy. IMO it's best to look at the EPS mean. Ensemble means are pretty much used for everything else anyway.

[skyline385]

CCKWs (and even the MJO, but the MJO lasts longer) are intra-seasonal signals that are always over powered by the background state. 2017 I remember it was stated that a suppressed CCKW would shut down activity for a few weeks then we got Harvey and Irma.

The control is too messy. IMO it's best to look at the EPS mean. Ensemble means are pretty much used for everything else anyway.

The mean isn't very different as well actually. The one problem with mean ensembles for extended forecasts is that amplifications from the perturbations associated with each member start to blend in and you end up missing out on the finer details. Obviously there is no guarantee that the details on the control member are going to be accurate but atleast you can see them and know that this is a possibility. In the case of Andy's tweet for example, the different CCKWs he highlighted are impossible to tell apart on the mean.

[captainbarbossa19]

Again I'm more inclined to believe the EPS honestly, the ASW has been a mainstay over the past 6 years or so (ever since this streak of above average seasons began basically) so it would make sense for MJO progression to eventually reinvigorate it down the road. Additionally there's the fact that it's difficult to get the MJO to flounder in phase 8 simply because Niña forcing is not permissive; this is why you get the MJO zipping across the Pacific instead. There's also the GFS' bias towards phase 8 as well that should be taken into account (this is what often results in those early season phantomcanes in the Caribbean/Gulf).

Precisely; I would believe the GFS if it was a warm neutral or El Nino year, or if we somehow ended up in a situation like the 80s where an American Standing Wave was present (allowing the EPAC to go bonkers regardless of El Nino/La Nina state), but I simply don't see the evidence for either case (especially the +ENSO idea, for we clearly are not anywhere near +ENSO territory).

Yeah an American standing wave sort of thing would certainly be a surprise. This isn't the 90s

If I remember correctly, the GEFS was showing the same thing last year around this time. Meanwhile, the EPS showed an African Standing Wave which ended up winning. I agree that the state of the various teleconnections would support an African Standing Wave more than an American one.

[lsuhurricane]

0z GFS coming alive in the MDR? Say it ain’t so

[Category5Kaiju]

0z GFS coming alive in the MDR? Say it ain’t so

Season uncancelled folks

[skyline385]

0z GFS coming alive in the MDR? Say it ain’t so

Doesn't make it into the Caribbean, kinda expected because it was so tiny and fighting against a lot of dry air above. But atleast its something, however this is still the GFS at long range and we all know how that has been recently. Also, strong ridging still persisting.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/_wxphil_/status/1548310455684280324

[SFLcane]

Yeah GEFS seems off I’ll side with Blake in this.

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1548317842235305985

[Hurricaneman]

I’d say the first week of August will ring the bell this year based on the Euro and the GFS seems to be heading in that direction slowly correcting so for the next 2 weeks at least enjoy the quiet because it could go quickly

[tolakram]

My post in 2017 (thread is locked): https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... &start=820

Every year is unique, I don't think shear is that big of an issue this year.

[Category5Kaiju]

Every year is unique indeed. I personally view that this failure to realize that "no two seasons are carbon copies of one another" actually has ties with the practice of prematurely canceling a season. For instance, 2017 was quite tame in June, July, and early August, and it definitely was tempting to think that that would have continued in pattern for the rest of the season (I mean, back then, 2013 only happened 4 years before), but then activity exploded afterwards, and the season ended with 3 destructive major US landfalls. In 2019, I also remember how people were questioning how active the season could get with nothing in between early July and late August, and then of course we got Dorian in early September. And if you really look at it, 2017 and 2019 do not have very good historical analogs in the sense that their behaviors were quite extraordinary to a degree and something that very few, if any, other historic hurricane seasons managed to replicate. Seasons like 1933, 1992, 2004, 2005, and 2020 also hold these sort of very unique places in history, with the exact timing, locations, and behaviors of individual storms.

This logic holds for 2022 too. We know that the clues are there for an above-average season, but just because its analog years are 1996, 1999, or 2011 does not necessarily mean that we will see a Fran, Floyd, Lenny, or Irene-redux. Or that we can't see a Cat 5 in early August, or that we won't see 4 simultaneous Cat 4s in September. Each season is different. Very different.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The American MJO Dynamical models that a couple of days ago were going into 5 and 6 have now changed and look like the European MJO models...zipping straight over to phase 1

[skyline385]

Decided to check the ENSO state during hurricane season for these years along with the EPAC & NATL ACE, 2012 seems to be the one big outlier.

1978 - ENSO-ve - 207.7 - 63.2
1984 - ENSO-ve/2nd year Nina - 193.7 - 84.3
1990 - ENSO+ve - 249.5 - 96.8
1992 - ENSO-ve - 294.3 - 76.2
2012 - ENSO+ve - 98.5 - 132.6

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1548497236916482048

[Teban54]

Decided to check the ENSO state during hurricane season for these years along with the EPAC & NATL ACE, 2012 seems to be the one big outlier.

1978 - ENSO-ve - 207.7 - 63.2
1984 - ENSO-ve/2nd year Nina - 193.7 - 84.3
1990 - ENSO+ve - 249.5 - 96.8
1992 - ENSO-ve - 294.3 - 76.2
2012 - ENSO+ve - 98.5 - 132.6

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1548497236916482048

1978-1992 were all in the -AMO era, so the Atlantic ACE isn't surprising to me. 2012's EPAC ACE possibly is, but I think it has more to do with 2012's failed El Nino.

[Category5Kaiju]

Decided to check the ENSO state during hurricane season for these years along with the EPAC & NATL ACE, 2012 seems to be the one big outlier.

1978 - ENSO-ve - 207.7 - 63.2
1984 - ENSO-ve/2nd year Nina - 193.7 - 84.3
1990 - ENSO+ve - 249.5 - 96.8
1992 - ENSO-ve - 294.3 - 76.2
2012 - ENSO+ve - 98.5 - 132.6

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1548497236916482048

1978-1992 were all in the -AMO era, so the Atlantic ACE isn't surprising to me. 2012's EPAC ACE possibly is, but I think it has more to do with 2012's failed El Nino.

I mentioned this in an earlier post of mine a few days back, but there is also the element of the potent American Standing Wave that dominated in the 80s and early 90s (where a fierce rising cell was focused over EPAC, allowing the basin to see multiple consecutive above average seasons with copious numbers of major hurricanes regardless of ENSO state). From what I can tell in this case, the EPAC does not seem to have such in place, and yes I agree; 2012 seemed to have lingering +ENSO effects on the Atlantic, causing that basin to perform relatively weakly (not to mention the MDR warmth in 2012 was only very slight). Honestly, I think we're in some new territory here. How many of those seasons that Phil mentioned had a completely dead July WPAC as well? Or were third-year La Ninas?

[LarryWx]

I just want to go on record as thinking all of this talk is interesting but I have yet to see any skill in successfully predicting fast or slow seasons when there's no 'strong' indicator like el nino. I don't buy the third year la nina is a predictor of anything, especially since we're working with so little data.

Is there anything that tells us this season will be below normal? - Not seeing anything
Normal? - Sure, see above
Above normal - seems very likely
Hyperactive - I have yet to see any real skill in predicting hyperactive seasons so my answer is always probably not, turning to no the further we get into the season with no activity. There have been hyper seasons with no activity until mid August but those seasons requires more chance than normal to reach the hyperactive threshold. The storm has to start in a location where it can strengthen and stay away from land long enough to rack up ACE. Seems more chance than anything else. Just an amateur opinion though.

Agreed we have so little information on third year Ninas to go by.

Going by what's happening right now is probably a good place to start. Named storm numbers will probably cool down compared to the past few seasons due to the less favorable subtropics (this is usually where activity comes from prior to August anyway), the named days are below normal. The deep tropics (MDR) we won't know until much later into August and September.

This is true. The only ones we have are 1956, 1975, 2000.

Atlantic ACE of 56, 76, and 119

If it were only 1956, 1975, and 2000, I wouldn't have analyzed it. However, I also included 1874, 1894, 1910, and 1917 based on Eric Webb's ONI analysis that goes back to 1850. (It appears that 3rd year Ninas occur ~once every 25 seasons on average.)

Seven seasons is still a small sample and thus is far from being large enough to determine with confidence what's likely to happen. However, after it was earlier hypothesized by others that 3rd year La Nina seasons might tend to not be as active as other La Nina seasons (I don't recall what suddenly brought that idea up but I thought it was interesting and I love doing analyses of analogs), I got curious and decided to analyze the seven seasons to see what actually occurred. I decided to compare these seven to the respective seven prior seasons as opposed to all other La Nina seasons as a whole.

Keeping in mind that the value of this analysis is highly debatable due to small sample size and also that there's a strong randomness factor for deaths and damage, all seven seasons had far FEWER** deaths and damage vs each respective prior season. I should add that 1894, 1910, 1975 and 2000 were still pretty bad. It was just that 1893, 1909, 1974 (due to massive flooding by Fifi in Honduras), and 1999 were some of THE worst seasons impactwise.

Regarding ACE, the average of the seven 3rd year La Nina seasons was 79, which is near normal. The average of the respective seven seasons prior (all were 2nd year La Ninas)'was a whopping 133! (Out of curiosity, I looked at the other seven 2nd year La Ninas (1890, 1950, 1971, 1984, 2008, 2011, and 2017) and they averaged a very similar 132 ACE.))

Regarding the seven 3rd year Nina seasons, 1894 with four majors still had an active ACE (135). Also, 1975 and 2000 both had three majors. In addition, keep in mind that 2021 had 4 majors, an ACE of 146, and a whopping $81 billion in damage. So, even IF 2022 were to not reach any of those 2021 levels and considering we're still VERY early in the season climowise, it could still be a bad year (hopefully not), especially considering the current very active era and that it isn't El Niño. Plus 2022 has already had three storms, which is above average as of mid July. One last thing: if you live on the Gulf coast of FL, you may want to be a little extra wary (being that all seven 3rd year Niña seasons happened to have had pretty heavy impacts there) just in case these analogs happen to be onto something there.


Eric Webb's ONI analysis:
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

**Corrected for typo