2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[wxman57]

0z GFS coming alive in the MDR? Say it ain’t so

I don't see anything there but a couple of tropical waves, which is normal for mid to late July.

[cycloneye]

Didn't know where to post this twit from Andy as it is good at EPAC thread as well here, but sticked here.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1548653154870378496

[Deshaunrob17]

Lol I started this forum in 2017. Every year since then was non El Niño ( most La Niña ). I wonder how this forum looks in an upcoming El Niño?

[hurricane2025]

All these pros trying to compare seasons lol, it’s always been quiet in July

[NotSparta]

Lol I started this forum in 2017. Every year since then was non El Niño ( most La Niña ). I wonder how this forum looks in an upcoming El Niño?

Like 2018

[skyline385]

A lot of people seem to compare 2017 EPAC with this season but 2017 did have favorable conditions up until August when it shut down. As Webb has been repeatedly saying, this year is having one of the strongest Ninos historically which makes the EPAC performance which is right running ahead of 2017 (ACE-wise) very questionable.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1548669445278732289

[Category5Kaiju]

The only thing about comparing this season with 2011 (at least Pacific wise) is that this year does not really seem to have as strong of a La Nina Modoki setup. In 2011, the Nino 1,2 region (at least in July) was glaringly warm, and that could have very well contributed to its overperformance during an otherwise moderate -ENSO year. Other Modoki La Nina years that had an active EPAC in July include 1998 and 2008, and in 2017, one could perhaps argue that the temporary coastal El Nino that affected Peru and caused a major drought in the spring may have had lingering effects on the EPAC.

Now notice this: in all four of the years that I have mentioned, the Atlantic kicked into high gear in late August, with the first major hurricane of those seasons occurring after the August 20 date. However, I am still a bit hesitant to compare this year with those years in this regard because clearly, the -ENSO state has not disappeared (it even strengthened a little in the far west Nino regions in the spring/early summer), and the Nino 1,2 region, while warmer than the Nino 3 and 4 regions, is not eye-popping anomalously warm and does not look anywhere close to a La Nina Modoki from what I can tell. So either the EPAC is just extremely lucky with a very localized region of favorable conditions (and where the basin will eventually slow down going into August), or there's something else happening.

[Ntxw]

The only thing about comparing this season with 2011 (at least Pacific wise) is that this year does not really seem to have as strong of a La Nina Modoki setup. In 2011, the Nino 1,2 region (at least in July) was glaringly warm, and that could have very well contributed to its overperformance during an otherwise moderate -ENSO year. Other Modoki La Nina years that had an active EPAC in July include 1998 and 2008, and in 2017, one could perhaps argue that the temporary coastal El Nino that affected Peru and caused a major drought in the spring may have had lingering effects on the EPAC.

Now notice this: in all four of the years that I have mentioned, the Atlantic kicked into high gear in late August, with the first major hurricane of those seasons occurring after the August 20 date. However, I am still a bit hesitant to compare this year with those years in this regard because clearly, the -ENSO state has not disappeared (it even strengthened a little in the far west Nino regions in the spring/early summer), and the Nino 1,2 region, while warmer than the Nino 3 and 4 regions, is not eye-popping anomalously warm and does not look anywhere close to a La Nina Modoki from what I can tell. So either the EPAC is just extremely lucky with a very localized region of favorable conditions (and where the basin will eventually slow down going into August), or there's something else happening.

I think the question is less so the back and forth between the EPAC and NATL. Both can and do go through periods of favorability. The more broader question is generally what global circulation or oscillation has brought down activity overall. EPAC is just a pocket that has found some help for the time being, but like Larry's statistics going back further what makes 3rd year Ninas go on a downtrend (if you consider it that) from prior seasons before it? We can even stretch this out to extended periods of cold neutral states that go without a Nino for 3+ seasons and might find similar results. Has the prior years exhausted the budget? Good stuff for discussion!

[Ntxw]

Regarding ACE, the average of the seven 3rd year La Nina seasons was 79, which is near normal. The average of the respective seven seasons prior (all were 2nd year La Ninas)'was a whopping 133! (Out of curiosity, I looked at the other seven 2nd year La Ninas (1890, 1950, 1971, 1984, 2008, 2011, and 2017) and they averaged a very similar 132 ACE.))


Eric Webb's ONI analysis:
https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble- ... index.html

**Corrected for typo

Curious what the ACE averages/numbers are if you included cold neutral as criteria rather than just La Nina that extend for 3=+ seasons with no official Nino present during that time.

[cycloneye]

The westerlies at MDR comming soon.

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1548691395631845376

[cycloneye]

But then this.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1548710301582774274

[MGC]

I'm getting 2011 vibes this season. Hot in Texas and only 3 named storms to date, same as 2011. We shall see what transpires in the coming months......MGC

[LarryWx]

Curious what the ACE averages/numbers are if you included cold neutral as criteria rather than just La Nina that extend for 3=+ seasons with no official Nino present during that time.

I want to make sure I know what you're asking before attempting to analyze. Are you asking to look at the third season when it was cold neutral rather than La Nina and when it followed some combo of La Nina and cold neutral the prior two seasons?

[Ntxw]

Curious what the ACE averages/numbers are if you included cold neutral as criteria rather than just La Nina that extend for 3=+ seasons with no official Nino present during that time.

I want to make sure I know what you're asking before attempting to analyze. Are you asking to look at the third season when it was cold neutral rather than La Nina and when it followed some combo of La Nina and cold neutral the prior two seasons?

I'd say we can broaden the sample size, any string of 3+ or later neutral or lower without a Nino.

[LarryWx]

I'm getting 2011 vibes this season. Hot in Texas and only 3 named storms to date, same as 2011. We shall see what transpires in the coming months......MGC

Regarding "only 3 named storms to date", I want to make sure you realize that 3 NS to date is actually a hair above the 2.7 NS to date average for July 17th for non-El Nino seasons since 1995. Moreover, interestingly enough, check this out:

- Average # of NS AFTER July 17th for non-El Nino seasons since 1995 for seasons with 3 or fewer NS as of July 17th: 14.1 (19, 13, 11, 10, 08, 07, 01, 00, 99, 98, 96, 95)
- Average # of NS AFTER July 17th for non-El Nino seasons since 1995 for seasons with 4 or more NS as of July 17th: 14.1 (21, 20, 17, 16, 12, 05, 03)

So, the # of NS as of July 17th for non-El Nino seasons since 1995 has had no bearing on the # of NS following July 17th.

Aside:
- For El Nino seasons since 1995, the average # of NS as of July 17th is 2.0.
- For El Nino seasons since 1995, the average # of NS AFTER July 17th is 9.0, which compares to the 14.1 calculated above for non-El Nino seasons.
- So, average # of NS for full El Nino seasons since 1995 is 11.0, which compares to 16.8 for non-El Nino seasons since 1995.

[LarryWx]

Curious what the ACE averages/numbers are if you included cold neutral as criteria rather than just La Nina that extend for 3=+ seasons with no official Nino present during that time.

I want to make sure I know what you're asking before attempting to analyze. Are you asking to look at the third season when it was cold neutral rather than La Nina and when it followed some combo of La Nina and cold neutral the prior two seasons?

I'd say we can broaden the sample size, any string of 3+ or later neutral or lower without a Nino.

If I were to add any string of 3+ or later warm neutral or lower without Nino, I'd be adding 44 seasons to the 7 I have now for a total of 51 seasons. In my mind, that's too many. Besides, I wouldn't have the time to do that many. Moreover, I honestly wouldn't feel comfortable counting any string that includes any warm neutral, regardless, because I feel that warm neutral would be straying too far from La Nina, which is my focus. Warm neutral being closer to El Nino than La Nina would bother me.

However, I do think that stopping at cold neutral would be more reasonable since cold neutral isn't far from La Nina. So, IF I were to decide to add any, I might add 2001 (cold neutral that is after 3 La Nina), 1985 (cold neutral after 2 La Nina), and 1875 (cold neutral that is after 3 La Nina). But then again, two of these three additions would be a 4th year rather than just a 3rd year. My focus has been on 3rd year only and then comparing the 3rd years to 2nd years. So, if I eliminated 4th years, I'd be left with only 1985. So, 1985 would be the first season I'd add to my initial seven seasons if I were to add anything. Then I'd compare 1985 to 1984.

[Ntxw]

I want to make sure I know what you're asking before attempting to analyze. Are you asking to look at the third season when it was cold neutral rather than La Nina and when it followed some combo of La Nina and cold neutral the prior two seasons?

I'd say we can broaden the sample size, any string of 3+ or later neutral or lower without a Nino.

If I were to add any string of 3+ or later warm neutral or lower without Nino, I'd be adding 44 seasons to the 7 I have now for a total of 51 seasons. In my mind, that's too many. Besides, I wouldn't have the time to do that many. Moreover, I honestly wouldn't feel comfortable counting any string that includes any warm neutral, regardless, because I feel that warm neutral would be straying too far from La Nina, which is my focus. Warm neutral being closer to El Nino than La Nina would bother me.

However, I do think that stopping at cold neutral would be more reasonable since cold neutral isn't far from La Nina. So, IF I were to decide to add any, I might add 2001 (cold neutral that is after 3 La Nina), 1985 (cold neutral after 2 La Nina), and 1875 (cold neutral that is after 3 La Nina). But then again, two of these three additions would be a 4th year rather than just a 3rd year. My focus has been on 3rd year only and then comparing the 3rd years to 2nd years. So, if I eliminated 4th years, I'd be left with only 1985. So, 1985 would be the first season I'd add to my initial seven seasons if I were to add anything. Then I'd compare 1985 to 1984.

Thanks Larry! That's a fair call, I would agree. I think in general the outcome wouldn't be too vastly different. The key being that the further displaced you are from the 1st and 2nd year coldish ENSO events things tend to cool off. So if this year were to go off in a big way it would be unique. I'd say normal to above normal would be the safe call vs hyperactive in terms of ACE.

[OuterBanker]

A personal indicator. For the past thirty plus years I have participated in a bowling tournament in Williamsburg in mid August. I have never had to cancel because of a hurricane. This year it's the 13th and 14th so the outer banks will be safe that weekend.

[cycloneye]

I always like the Tyler discussions and that is why I bring this twit.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1548849483294949376