EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Mid level shear is messing this thing up.
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
InfernoFlameCat wrote:Mid level shear is messing this thing up.
Also banding. That one large band on Estelle’s west side is probably competing with the core.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- skyline385
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EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Still struggling with the shear, everytime it tries to build up convection on the N-NE side it immediately dissipates
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
TXPZ27 KNES 171755
TCSENP
A. 06E (ESTELLE)
B. 17/1730Z
C. 15.8N
D. 107.3W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=4.5
MET=4.5 PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THE LLCC POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...FISHER
TCSENP
A. 06E (ESTELLE)
B. 17/1730Z
C. 15.8N
D. 107.3W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T4.0/4.0
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=4.5
MET=4.5 PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THE LLCC POSITION.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...FISHER
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- Kingarabian
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
EP, 06, 2022071718, , BEST, 0, 159N, 1074W, 75, 984, HU
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Yeah no way this is becoming a major. It doesn’t have a great structure and shear is just strong enough to prevent it from improving.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Dry air and mid level shear are wrecking havoc upon the storms structure. It can’t close off.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Yeah this isn't looking good at all right now. Wouldn't be surprised if it's less than 75kts now honestly
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
No longer forecast to be major cane.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
EPAC: "I want to defy logic and produce major hurricanes left and right in July of a third year La Nina! Here comes Estelle"
La Nina-based shear and dry air: "Yeah, sorry, not happening, Darby was enough. "
La Nina-based shear and dry air: "Yeah, sorry, not happening, Darby was enough. "
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Well, going down.
EP, 06, 2022071800, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1081W, 70, 986, HU
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Still forecast to hit Cat 2 but I think it missed it's opportunity to really get going. Dry air and shear are still disrupting it pretty good, and it may not even be able to intensify much again. Today was the day to do something and it wasn't able to get it done...
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Storm is a mess. ughh missed opportunity for some eye candy.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
This had a really high ceiling with that upper level outflow pattern with dual outflow channels and great moisture envelope. But wind shear got in the way…
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
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Re: EPAC: ESTELLE - Hurricane
Yellow Evan wrote:TXPZ27 KNES 171211
TCSENP
A. 06E (ESTELLE)
B. 17/1130Z
C. 15.5N
D. 106.6W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T3.5/4.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 10/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10
SCALE. DT=3.5 MET=4.5 PT=4.0 FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...FISHER
JTWC tier Dvoraking.
Can you explain your disagreement rather than just dropping a one line insult?
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M a r k
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