When will Danielle form?

[cycloneye]

Simple question about when the fourth named storm of the 2022 North Atlantic season will form. Poll will close for voting on July 31 at 7:34 PM EDT.

[Category5Kaiju]

Went with August 1-10. I think the upcoming CCKW is bound to produce at least something, given how it seems to be really energizing the EPAC (so it "should" in theory do something similar in the Atlantic; not to mention the WPAC is very quiet)

[captainbarbossa19]

August 1-10 in the MDR or Caribbean most likely.

[Old-TimeCane]

August 1-10

[Nimbus]

We haven't had a quiet August in a few years so I played August 11-20.
Hoping the SAL keeps activity down for a couple weeks.

[cycloneye]

My last call to vote for those who have not done so. The voting ends at 7:34 PM EDT.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Went with Aug 11-20, which roughly lines up with the period in which the ASW gets reinvigorated on the EPS. So really not much different from what we've experienced in recent years.

[Cpv17]

Aug. 1-10 is unlikely. 11-20 is much more realistic.

[cycloneye]

This poll has closed for voting.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

[mcheer23]

I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

[weeniepatrol]

I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

[wxman57]

I don't see much potential for development over the next 8 days. Most likely after August 15th.

[LarryWx]

I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

Agreed 110%:

- Since 1995, there has been only one season with no August NS: the super strong El Nino of 1997.
- Since 1995, 24 of 27 (89%) have had not just 2 but 3+ NS in August! Only 1997 (0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Nino)(2) had fewer than 3 in August.
- 1996, 1998, and 1999 all had 4 NS in August but the first one for all three seasons wasn't til either August 18th or 19th.
- The ENSO analog 2000 (3rd year La Nina) had 4 NS in August.
- Even the pre-1995 ENSO analog of 1985 had 3 NS in August. Actually, all ENSO analogs even going back to the likely underreported years of the 1800s had at least 1 NS in August.

Conclusion: Based on history since 1995, you'd have to be bold to go with fewer than 3 NS this August even with the quiet first week or so on the models. I think 3-4 is the most likely with only a slight lean toward 3 NS in August.

[facemane]

I don't see much potential for development over the next 8 days. Most likely after August 15th.

This is what our local Met is saying.

[115MphAgatha]

And, barring a surprise, it looks like the 1 person who voted "September and beyond" wins!

[115MphAgatha]

I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

Aged like milk!

Anyways, congrats ConvergenceZone!

[zzh]

I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

[weeniepatrol]

I'm thinking the first week of September for Danielle.............It's less than 4 weeks away, so it's possible Danielle can be delayed until them........

We will not go the whole month of August without a named storm.

First La Nina with no August TC ever observed. Lightning in a bottle and all that