2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Whenever the Atlantic decides to wake up, it's quite likely that it won't need to worry about typhoon-enhanced TUTTs since the WPAC has been unusually quiet, with this quiet period expected to last for god knows how long...

[skyline385]

Well the wave is really visible on todays ICON

[SFLcane]

Until this changes i call bluff from the EPS.. Looks hostile

[SFLcane]

2 very useful guides for S2K to abide by..

[Category5Kaiju]

2 very useful guides for S2K to abide by..

https://i.postimg.cc/RF80RG1c/yr.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgNShpCp/gulde.jpg

The person who created the one of the top is a living legend. And the one on the bottom too.

If I am not mistaken, thank you very much Tyler Stanfield and Andy Hazelton for making the top one and the bottom one, respectively, for us.

[Cat5James]

2 very useful guides for S2K to abide by..

https://i.postimg.cc/RF80RG1c/yr.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgNShpCp/gulde.jpg

Hilarious.

[skyline385]

2 very useful guides for S2K to abide by..

https://i.postimg.cc/RF80RG1c/yr.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgNShpCp/gulde.jpg

The person who created the one of the top is a living legend. And the one on the bottom too.

If I am not mistaken, thank you very much Tyler Stanfield and Andy Hazelton for making the top one and the bottom one, respectively, for us.

The bottom one was absolutely hilarious, when did Andy make it?

[Category5Kaiju]

2 very useful guides for S2K to abide by..

https://i.postimg.cc/RF80RG1c/yr.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/mgNShpCp/gulde.jpg

The person who created the one of the top is a living legend. And the one on the bottom too.

If I am not mistaken, thank you very much Tyler Stanfield and Andy Hazelton for making the top one and the bottom one, respectively, for us.

The bottom one was absolutely hilarious, when did Andy make it?

I think it was like in 2017, it was a while back

[skyline385]

Until this changes i call bluff from the EPS.. Looks hostile

In a lot of the GFS runs there is a pocket of moisture with the wave which manages to survive near the Caribbean. If it gets into the Gulf, then we could see something, especially with its current route over the eddy.

[toad strangler]

lol that 2nd map is so true and highlights that no matter how many claim they don't want these storms to hit they are all obviously LYING.

and poor EPAC

[skyline385]

Nothing new on todays weeklies (same as last run), continues to predict normal activity after mid-August.

[LemieT]

I have a habit of watching old videos from prior seasons to give me a reminder of in-situ conditions at those times. I recommend watching all of Mark Sudduth's July Hurricane Outlook and Discussion videos from 2017. It should keep some occupied but you see some very interesting similarities with our current state. Someone mentioned a few days ago on this thread that this year could be a sort of 2017 lite. I am beginning to think it's possible. Not bats**t crazy ACE but a genuine active season with heavy deep tropics formation. FWIW if we think the EPACs activity is a negative factor, by today in 2017, the EPAC was already at Hilary with Irwin forming the next day. In that list were two majors and a Cat 2. We all have a little 2013 jitters but I am willing to bet this year ain't it.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have a habit of watching old videos from prior seasons to give me a reminder of in-situ conditions at those times. I recommend watching all of Mark Sudduth's July Hurricane Outlook and Discussion videos from 2017. It should keep some occupied but you see some very interesting similarities with our current state. Someone mentioned a few days ago on this thread that this year could be a sort of 2017 lite. I am beginning to think it's possible. Not bats**t crazy ACE but a genuine active season with heavy deep tropics formation. FWIW if we think the EPACs activity is a negative factor, by today in 2017, the EPAC was already at Hilary with Irwin forming the next day. In that list were two majors and a Cat 2. We all have a little 2013 jitters but I am willing to bet this year ain't it.

Indeed; I did the same with the 2019 and 2021 hurricanetrack videos and the S2K discussions during this timeframe (both of those years had dead late Julys and even early-Augusts), and there is literally nothing that sticks out to me as being particularly odd about what we're seeing now (maybe aside from the fact that this year seems to be a lot more unfavorable than the previous years for subtropical shorties).

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/wxtca/status/1550237257625321473

[Category5Kaiju]

So an S2K member recently posted about it as a question, but I actually think it may be a good topic of discussion at least in this thread: what exactly did people see or observe that caused them to start thinking that "2022 may bust in ACE count" idea? Was there a certain factor or current/future predicted conditions that sparked this idea? I'm actually very curious as to how this even began

[LemieT]

So an S2K member recently posted about it as a question, but I actually think it may be a good topic of discussion at least in this thread: what exactly did people see or observe that caused them to start thinking that "2022 may bust in ACE count" idea? Was there a certain factor or current/future predicted conditions that sparked this idea? I'm actually very curious as to how this even began

It's a psychological thing. First you begin with some early season predictions for a blockbuster season. To this you mix in tunnel-visioned metrics which support the theory. Then you sow seeds of doubt with a few parameters that seem less than favourable for supporting said blockbuster season. A slack Canary current here, third year La Nina uncertainty there, MJO unpredictability, less than stellar SSTa config... Enter Atcychiphobia. (I have a background in psychology so did some study on this in my own life).

Here's a quote from choosingtherapy.com - "Fear of failure, also called atychiphobia, is a constant, overwhelming feeling of dread that accompanies the undertaking of projects or pursuit of life goals. People who live with atychiphobia often feel absolutely certain they will fail, even if that feeling is baseless. This sense of insecurity can interfere with their thoughts, emotions, and actions. When kept in check, a healthy fear of failure can be positive and lead us to better plan, focus, and prepare. But when a fear of failure grows out of control it can become paralyzing and isolating."

Tied to all of this is a fear of delayed/deferred gratification (a real problem in this tech era where everything happens faster with each advancement cycle). We've learned to wait less and want more now (subtropical/early season shorties to tide us over while we wait for the real stuff ) and the wait in our mind often equates to "it's not coming anymore" rather than simple delay.

While this forum like countless others on the internet is a great tool, it has allowed us to be true to ourselves (passions like weather) to such a degree that we often take everything more personally than we might otherwise. As a weather enthusiast I genuinely look forward to the excitement of tracking hurricanes and in some ways many of us (admittedly or not) feel some level of personal failure when the expected levels of "awesome" don't materialize. It's the reason why every year we wring our hands over every fine detail as though on a whole there haven't been hurricanes every year for longer than we've all been alive. Throw a few quiet seasons or a bust forecast (2013 ) into the mix and we suddenly fear failing every year, even though none of us controls the weather no matter how well we can forecast the possible outcomes.

These days I reassure myself with the gentle reminder that we've been here countless times before and that failure is a part of life. Suppose ACE is 40 this year... so what, we'll eventually figure out what we missed. If ACE is 240 we'll lose our marbles for a bit and then come back to earth because it's just how life works. I find it fun for the most part but have to remind myself not to take any of the conjecture for/against too seriously or too personally as we do when heavily invested in anything.

Long post, but cheers to anyone who had time/patience to read it. Hope it made some sense

[weeniepatrol]

It's a psychological thing.

In the market we call this a "bear trap"

[gatorcane]

Summer pattern across Southern Florida this year reminds me a lot of 2017. We are seeing a very persistent east to south east wind flow due to persistent Western Atlantic ridging (I.e persistent Bermuda High). Most days storms end up are over Naples or the SW coast of Florida. We have received hardly any rain in the last 5-6 weeks across coastal SE Palm Beach during the time of year we expect substantial rain especially those last two weeks in June - probably the driest summer here I can remember and it appears many of the South Florida east coast metro areas are abnormally dry (despite the flooding rains from the no-named storm which came through in early June), It might not mean much but the long-range models showing strong Western Atlantic ridging could be legit. Tracks through the Caribbean or even towards the Bahamas and Florida look possible this season.

Keep a close eye on the NAO. Looks like latest guidance shows it heading more positive as we head into August (see image below). Running the 500MB GFS day 10 shows some impressive Western Atlantic ridging as well.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Storms have stopped moving west to east here in Georgia. Last time that happened was 2017. So I’m getting enormous amounts of rain because of stalled frontal boundaries. Strong ridge out there. I’ll take the 15 inches of rain I have gotten this month but geez. Florida better watch out. Could we see something like Andrew this year. I haven’t seen that storm mentioned.

[Wampadawg]

Storms have stopped moving west to east here in Georgia. Last time that happened was 2017. So I’m getting enormous amounts of rain because of stalled frontal boundaries. Strong ridge out there. I’ll take the 15 inches of rain I have gotten this month but geez. Florida better watch out. Could we see something like Andrew this year. I haven’t seen that storm mentioned.

2017 is not a year we like to here in Texas