ACE for 2022 Atlantic: updated member predictions?

[LarryWx]

With all of the ACE talk recently and before we get into the meat of the season, I'm curious about the latest thinking as regards total Atlantic basin ACE for 2022. Please pick one of these intervals and then make your pick for the tiebreaker below. Deadline is July 31st at 11:59 PM EDT. (If Luis or any other board admin would like to create a poll, please do so if you think that would work better. Thanks in advance.)

A. 225+
B. 200-224
C. 175-199
D. 150-174
E. 125-149
F. 100-124
G 75-99
H. 50-74
I. <50

The winning interval will be based on rounding. Examples: 224.499 would count as 200-224 while 224.5 would count as 225+. 49.5 would count as 50-74.

** Tiebreaker: highest ACE for any one storm this season using same rounding rules
A. 70+
B. 65-69
C. 60-64
D. 55-59
E. 50-54
F. 45-49
G. 40-44
H. 35-39
I. 30-34
J. 25-29
K. 20-24
L. 15-19
M. 10-14
N. <10

The winner(s) will get mega kudos! What better a prize can one get than that?

Atlantic ACE as of when this thread was started (7/21/22) is 2.8 or 2.9 depending on the sources I've seen.

Thanks to all who decide to participate, if any.

Source to track: http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic

[cycloneye]

Made a poll for this question about the ACE that will close for voting on July 31 at 5:28 PM EDT.

[Hammy]

125-149 range for me

[Old-TimeCane]

I'm sticking with my original ACE number from the annual poll (152) so 150-174.

[captainbarbossa19]

I never made a prediction, but I am going with 165 ACE.

[Category5Kaiju]

Sticking with my prediction of 190 ACE (+ or minus 20 ACE), with the expectation that we will see long-lived storms in late August and September. Perhaps a Caribbean Cruiser or two since the precip anomalies seem to still think that the Caribbean Sea will be wetter than normal.

I see no solid, compelling evidence as to why this wouldn't be possible, let alone why this year's lull in activity is any different from what we typically expect to see in any given active year. If you asking about total NSs, sure, maybe I may drop that to slightly less than 20 for this year thanks to the inactive July. But I still personally think that with the third year La Nina and warm deep tropics, the Atlantic will eventually wake up and generate the storms that we have longed to track.

[tolakram]

150-174, which is higher than my 135 prediction in the poll. I feel like somewhere between 135 and 174 is a lock, just not sure where the final will land.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm still sticking with my prediction of 140. So 125-149 it is

[cycloneye]

Voted 125-149.

[aspen]

I’m going lower than my May prediction with the 125-149 ACE option. Specifically, I’m thinking 120-130 ACE now, and I have a feeling even that could end up a little high.

[Ntxw]

Voted 125-149. Really like the 2000/2011 analogs.

[Kat5]

145.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Went with 200-240 compared to my earlier prediction of around I think 180. I think some big ACE Irma like storms are going to come through. Strong instability combined with the ridge factors into this.
Edit, going with 220 ace.

[LarryWx]

Thank you, Luis, for setting up the poll and thanks to all 33 who've voted so far as well as the folks who've replied.

So, as of the first 33 votes, the average vote is for an ACE of 158. Over 3/4 of these 33 votes have been within the 125-199 interval. So, the consensus of voting members so far is calling for a well above average ACE vs all years. However, when only considering non-El Nino years since 1995, the average is actually up at 153. So, the average member guess so far of 158 is very close to the 153 average ACE for non-El Nino years since 1995. The median ACE for those same years is 146.

Voting is open til July 31st.

[Chris90]

I voted for 225+. Honestly, I think this number is crazy, but when I did my final numbers for the poll in May, the number 233 was floating in my head. That's an extreme guess, so I went with 160 as my final in the poll. I still think the ACE will be closer to 160, but this new poll gave me a chance to give my crazy guess of 233, so I decided to get crazy because it's Friday night so why not let my hair down (even though I'm bald.)

I do think we might have some longer tracked storms that generate higher than average levels of ACE though. I think there's a greater than normal chance of a 40+ MDR/Caribbean long track hurricane.

[MHC Tracking]

I'd go for ~145-150. Seems to be about right with the current SST config that's setting up, while the ridging pattern could favor a couple long-tracking, high ACE generating hurricanes in the Caribbean or recurving near the US East Coast if conditions cooperate.

[CFLHurricane]

I’m thinking 175-199 just because all the planets need to be aligned for higher than that and we just won’t know if that’s the case until late August.

[LarryWx]

Thanks for all votes/replies.

I've decided to go with 100-124, moderately above the longterm average. I had been thinking within the 110-140 range for awhile and thus wasn't sure whether I'd go 100-124 or 125-149. But because models are suggesting little chance for the next storm through the first week of August, I decided to go with 100-124.

If I were to pick a number, I'd pick 120. It being La Nina and during the very active era that started in 1995 tells me to go with active. But with it being 3rd year La Niña (they've averaged lower ACE than other La Niña) and with it likely quiet per models at least through August 7th as well as current ACE still only at ~3, I decided to go only moderately above the longterm average. A 120 would still be the 2nd most active 3rd year La Niña on record (exceeded only by 1894), very near the 119 of 3rd year Niña analog 2000, and well above the average 3rd year Niña, but it would be below the average/median non-El Niño since 1995, which is 153/146. The average guess as of now (43 votes) in this poll is 159.

My biggest concern area anywhere in the Atlantic basin remains the Gulf coast of Florida as per 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs.

Voting closes on Sunday (7/31) in case anyone else wants to vote.

[skyline385]

Ended up going with 150-174 (think it will be on the lower end of it) because in addition to everything that is going on, the east MDR and Canary current has started to warm up again, which leaves open the potential for MDR runners who would love to pump some ACE.

[LarryWx]

Last call for this poll as the deadline is this evening.

Since my last post, there have been 8 additional votes to bring the total to 51. These 8 votes were:

- two for 150-174
- two for 125-149
- three for 100-124
- one for 75-99

So, through these 51 votes, the votes are the following for the 9 categories starting from most active:
2, 3, 10, 14, 13, 7, 1, 0, 1

Thus, consensus is for categories 3-6 (100-199) since 44 of the 51 votes (86%) are within them.

These latest 8 votes average 128. This brings the average guess down slightly from 159 to 154. This 154 is very close to the average/median for non-El Niño seasons since 1995 of 153/146 though it is well above the average for the eight 3rd year Niño/cold neutral seasons and above the most active of those 8 seasons of 135 (1894).

Edit for final votes: After a final total of 53 votes, the average guess for the entire vote is 153.