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aspen wrote:
The 2022 and 2021 SSTA maps are almost total inverses of each other right now. The exact parts of the Canary Current that were warm last year and now much below-average, and we’ve got a developing Atlantic Nina instead of an Atlantic Niño.
skyline385 wrote:aspen wrote:
The 2022 and 2021 SSTA maps are almost total inverses of each other right now. The exact parts of the Canary Current that were warm last year and now much below-average, and we’ve got a developing Atlantic Nina instead of an Atlantic Niño.
Honestly the only thing this season has going for it in terms of SST is the cooler subtropics. If you look at the EPS the canary current is going to continue to cool into August.
SFLcane wrote:Folks, its getting a little annoying to see all the chat about oh we are not getting big ones this year because of the sst's. You know coming from someone like myself who went through Andrew, katrina, wilma , etc.. let me tell you EVERY hurricane is a problem you surely don't need a cat 4-5. All you need is a cat 1 and guess what its " lights out". My point is try to focus on impacts and less on categories. As i have said before most in south florida think they have experienced a full fledged major hurricane quite frankly have no idea.
SFLcane wrote:Folks, its getting a little annoying to see all the chat about oh we are not getting big ones this year because of the sst's. You know coming from someone like myself who went through Andrew, katrina, wilma , etc.. let me tell you EVERY hurricane is a problem you surely don't need a cat 4-5. All you need is a cat 1 and guess what its " lights out". My point is try to focus on impacts and less on categories. As i have said before most in south florida think they have experienced a full fledged major hurricane quite frankly have no idea.
skyline385 wrote:SFLcane wrote:Folks, its getting a little annoying to see all the chat about oh we are not getting big ones this year because of the sst's. You know coming from someone like myself who went through Andrew, katrina, wilma , etc.. let me tell you EVERY hurricane is a problem you surely don't need a cat 4-5. All you need is a cat 1 and guess what its " lights out". My point is try to focus on impacts and less on categories. As i have said before most in south florida think they have experienced a full fledged major hurricane quite frankly have no idea.
But no one implied that and no one will. No one said we are not having a hurricane or a major this year because of SSTs. The discussion was purely to compare SSTs with previous years, yes a ton of other factors affect the hurricane season and everyone is aware of it.
tolakram wrote:What is Atlantic Nina? What is Canary Current? Is someone making these up?
tolakram wrote:
This belongs in the globals thread I think, not in the indicators thread.
aspen wrote:skyline385 wrote:aspen wrote:The 2022 and 2021 SSTA maps are almost total inverses of each other right now. The exact parts of the Canary Current that were warm last year and now much below-average, and we’ve got a developing Atlantic Nina instead of an Atlantic Niño.
Honestly the only thing this season has going for it in terms of SST is the cooler subtropics. If you look at the EPS the canary current is going to continue to cool into August.
How much does the Canary Current influence MDR activity? Will a cool CC limit or try to shut down the MDR?
skyline385 wrote:aspen wrote:skyline385 wrote:Honestly the only thing this season has going for it in terms of SST is the cooler subtropics. If you look at the EPS the canary current is going to continue to cool into August.
How much does the Canary Current influence MDR activity? Will a cool CC limit or try to shut down the MDR?
You can see the effect the Canary current has on ACE, a warm current supercharges AEWs as they leave Africa. Irma was the best example of this which started RI’ing as soon as she left Africa.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/661a22d60ab2c420e0dafa43f9e289fc.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/144f2d893f762f73a11550315c50ddaa.jpg
tolakram wrote:skyline385 wrote:aspen wrote:How much does the Canary Current influence MDR activity? Will a cool CC limit or try to shut down the MDR?
You can see the effect the Canary current has on ACE, a warm current supercharges AEWs as they leave Africa. Irma was the best example of this which started RI’ing as soon as she left Africa.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/661a22d60ab2c420e0dafa43f9e289fc.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/144f2d893f762f73a11550315c50ddaa.jpg
Source for this?
skyline385 wrote:tolakram wrote:skyline385 wrote:You can see the effect the Canary current has on ACE, a warm current supercharges AEWs as they leave Africa. Irma was the best example of this which started RI’ing as soon as she left Africa.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/661a22d60ab2c420e0dafa43f9e289fc.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/144f2d893f762f73a11550315c50ddaa.jpg
Source for this?
Source for the ACE correlation? It’s from CSU’s forecasts.
tolakram wrote:skyline385 wrote:tolakram wrote:
Source for this?
Source for the ACE correlation? It’s from CSU’s forecasts.
I'm reading the latest CSU discussion and can't find the word Canary anywhere. If this is from a particular discussion or verification we'd all benefit from a link to the source.
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