2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Ntxw]

Also don't forget SST anomalies is just a relatively subjective variable. Actual SSTs themselves determine convection. Everything is a gradient on a large scale. 26C and its location, how far north or south than usual plays some role and the gradient will follow.

[skyline385]

Also don't forget SST anomalies is just a relatively subjective variable. Actual SSTs themselves determine convection. Everything is a gradient on a large scale. 26C and it's location, how far north or south than usual plays some role and the gradient will follow.

Yes very much, best and greatest example of this is Andrew

[Category5Kaiju]

Also don't forget SST anomalies is just a relatively subjective variable. Actual SSTs themselves determine convection. Everything is a gradient on a large scale. 26C and it's location, how far north or south than usual plays some role and the gradient will follow.

Yes very much, best and greatest example of this is Andrew

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/5270e0453ee01689a3d708f22f78c541.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/e3f73079e3bb3c000bed23e08e8cd69a.jpg

Lorenzo and Michael iirc also intensified into Cat 5 hurricanes over warm but not insane warm waters; roughly 27-28 C or so. In fact, by looking at the WPAC and its swath of 30 C and 31 C waters, you would think it would have had an easy time spamming storms throughout this month. In contrast, Darby didn't really go over extremely warm waters.

The point here is, if you have sea surface temperatures that are 28 C or so, then that alone is enough to allow for a high-end hurricane, especially if the upper-level winds and conditions are cooperative. You don't necessarily need red or orange-color coded zones on the sst anomaly map for a powerhouse storm to happen.

[tolakram]

Source for the ACE correlation? It’s from CSU’s forecasts.

I'm reading the latest CSU discussion and can't find the word Canary anywhere. If this is from a particular discussion or verification we'd all benefit from a link to the source.

They don’t talk specifically about the canary current in the discussion but the ACE-SST correlation highlights the impact it has on ACE which is amongst the highest. A cooler canary current simply means systems develop more in the Western Atlantic (and not the E/C Atlantic which is what the tweet above was saying as well) and this pretty much matches the Caribbean season expected as well.

Phil Klotzbach showed the SST chart and ACE comparison in a tweet back in early July.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1545062079530418177




Nothing major has changed since that tweet and I see no mention of the Canary current. You see my challenge here. The current is real but is it driving cold temperatures, or simply a current that has nothing to do with the SST's that it carries, it's just a function of the current SST regime. I might be beating a dead horse here, but I think terminology is important. If the current hasn't shifted or somehow changed then the current itself has little bearing on SST's.

[skyline385]

Also don't forget SST anomalies is just a relatively subjective variable. Actual SSTs themselves determine convection. Everything is a gradient on a large scale. 26C and it's location, how far north or south than usual plays some role and the gradient will follow.

Yes very much, best and greatest example of this is Andrew

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/5270e0453ee01689a3d708f22f78c541.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220722/e3f73079e3bb3c000bed23e08e8cd69a.jpg

Lorenzo and Michael iirc also intensified into Cat 5 hurricanes over warm but not insane warm waters; roughly 27-28 C or so. In fact, by looking at the WPAC and its swath of 30 C and 31 C waters, you would think it would have had an easy time spamming storms throughout this month. In contrast, Darby didn't really go over extremely warm waters.

The point here is, if you have sea surface temperatures that are 28 C or so, then that alone is enough to allow for a high-end hurricane, especially if the upper-level winds and conditions are cooperative. You don't necessarily need red or orange-color coded zones on the sst anomaly map for a powerhouse storm to happen.

Yes Darby intensified into a Cat 4 over 27C waters iirc. Any hurricane can continue to intensify under ideal conditions as long as the water is above 26C.

But at the same time, there is a clear correlation between SST and seasonal ACE as seen in the CSU discussion. So it remains an important indicator of seasonal activity in terms of ACE. It is not the only indicator and high SST will not guarantee hyperactivity but it is an important one based on objective historical analysis.

[zzh]

You can clearly see the effect of a cold Canary Current

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1550604819097948162

[tolakram]

I found it difficult to line up perfectly but here's an overlay of that old current chart and the latest SST anomalies.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1550609480752238594

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.imgur.com/927A85x.gif
You can clearly see the effect of a cold Canary Current

This product has been broken for at least five years, though

Or at least. Had absolutely zero bearing on the above-average after above-average seasons in recent years

[weeniepatrol]

I found it difficult to line up perfectly but here's an overlay of that old current chart and the latest SST anomalies.

https://i.imgur.com/IMIZSDH.png

I don't think it means much; it's just the usual July handwringing. As usual come late August the last thing we will need to worry about is SSTs... lol

Recall hurricane Florence tracking, and rapidly intensifying, over these waters.

[wxman57]

Models all have a strong wave moving off the west coast of Africa next Monday night then moving across the Cape Verde Islands. Beyond then, it's no longer a closed low, just a wave axis. Still a bit too early. Enjoying the quiet.

[gatorcane]

SST anomalies looks to support an active deep MDR between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Expecting tracks through the Caribbean and also those towards Bahamas/Fl. Bermuda High looks strong this year (see my post yesterday).

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1550653412743827461




Even Andy admits it; there's nothing about the dry conditions that we're seeing now that is alarming.

In fact, he points out this rather interesting observation; I genuinely wonder why that has been so though.

[zzh]

https://i.imgur.com/927A85x.gif
You can clearly see the effect of a cold Canary Current

This product has been broken for at least five years, though

Or at least. Had absolutely zero bearing on the above-average after above-average seasons in recent years

No, this one is not broken.

This is the one that is broken because it includes too many land areas that do not represent tropical Atlantic.

[weeniepatrol]

This is the one that is broken because it includes too many land areas that do not represent tropical Atlantic.

Thanks for the correction; however I still maintain that a snapshot on 22 July doesn't have much of a bearing on the actual season given that we've observed in recent years. Some examples...



Pre-season 2019? Below-average instability.

July 2020? Below-average instability.

10 Sep 2017? Below-average instability.

Stick a fork in it...

[toad strangler]

yawn

 http://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1550873653671256066

[crownweather]

yawn

http://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1550873653671256066?s=21&t=aquGsYXITvRBFzZT7jT_mw

This almost looks like cherry picking and throwing out the 2013 reference just for giggles. I took a look at both the current and forecast (by NMME) SST analogs on Levi's site and a few years actually match up to both parameters (and it's not 2013). Those years are 1970, 1971, 2010 and 2011. Average ACE for those 4 years is 107.123.

[Hurricaneman]

I honestly think this year is what 2013 could have been if the season didn’t stay in a spring pattern, actually a very dangerous setup