2022 Tropical Waves

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/x3BX3aR.png

Weak circulation.

[USTropics]

https://i.imgur.com/x3BX3aR.png

Weak circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/Zx0sCL5.gif

As always, thanks for the amazing work you put into tracking all these tropical waves! Here is a timelapse of the tropical waves that were introduced off the coast of Africa (others were introduced later in the Atlantic, but have excluded those for clarity here). We can see how the mean tropical wave axis position has increased with latitude over the months, which should correlate in a decrease in activity in the EPAC (as the models are starting to show). This permits development in the Atlantic once the background state becomes more conducive.

[cycloneye]

Wave 24 was introduced at 12z just off African Coast.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just offshore Africa along
19W, from 21N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection near
the tropical wave is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is
associated with the tropical wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is just west of Jamaica along 79W, from
19N southward to across eastern Panama and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean, moving W at around 20 kt. The tropical wave
passage was captured on the 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding in
Kingston, Jamaica. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from the coast of Panama north to 13N between the coast of
Colombia and 79W.

A tropical wave is inland over the Yucatan Peninsula along 90W,
from 19N southward to across Guatemala, moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
This tropical wave was evidenced by the 1200 UTC Upper Air
Sounding from Belize City. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the W Caribbean, from 10N to 18N west of 79W, including inland
over Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Additional scattered
moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras, as well as over the Yucatan Peninsula and coastal
regions of Belize.

[tolakram]

I this the one, or the setup for the next one?

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.imgur.com/x3BX3aR.png

Weak circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/Zx0sCL5.gif

As always, thanks for the amazing work you put into tracking all these tropical waves! Here is a timelapse of the tropical waves that were introduced off the coast of Africa (others were introduced later in the Atlantic, but have excluded those for clarity here). We can see how the mean tropical wave axis position has increased with latitude over the months, which should correlate in a decrease in activity in the EPAC (as the models are starting to show). This permits development in the Atlantic once the background state becomes more conducive.

https://www.gifmaker.net/src/8834b6cb-17ad-4c5f-9652-c770ba23498e/default.gif

Can already observe quite the difference in surface pressures between the two basins.



EPac can't seem to buy a 1012mb isobar if you paid it to. Meanwhile in the cool SST ridden MJO-suppressed Atlantic..........

Read between the lines, folks and enjoy the few weeks of quiet we have left.

[cycloneye]

Waves 22-23-24 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/23/22.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 20W, moving
westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 13N to 18N between 17W and 22W, and from 03N to
14N between 21W and 32W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 19N with axis near 47W,
moving westward at 5-10 knots. There is no convection associated
with this wave as it continues to be embedded in the dry
environment of the Saharan Air Layer.

A tropical wave extends S of 19N with axis near 80W, moving
westward at 15-20 knots. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are
ahead of the wave and across the Nicaragua and Honduras offshore
waters.

[zzh]

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.imgur.com/hp15o6W.png

Guess it’s just me but this kind of surface organization in mid July just off Cape Verde seems a little alarming

[cycloneye]

Waves 22-23-24 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/24/22.

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 26W,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 05N to 12N between 17W and 22W, and from 03N
to 14N between 25W and 34W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 19N with axis near 52W,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. There is no convection associated
with this wave as it continues to be embedded in the dry
environment of the Saharan Air Layer.

A tropical wave extends S of 19N with axis near 84W, moving
westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is across
Cuba, Jamaica and the Yucatan channel offshore waters.

[cycloneye]

Waves 22-23-24 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/25/22.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis along 33W, from
20N southward, moving westward from 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby
precipitation is related to the interaction of the wave with the
monsoon trough.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along
65W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted across the northern portion of the
wave mainly N of 15N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W,
from 20N southward, moving westward 10 kt. Scattered showers are
noted along the wave's axis.

[cycloneye]

Wave #25 is introduced at 00z surface analysis that is on the coast of West Africa.

[Category5Kaiju]

There's no denying that this year has been rather robust with exiting African waves; definitely, definitely not like 2013 where waves were struggling to stay convective over the MDR and simply dried up upon leaving land

[cycloneye]

Waves 23-24-25 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/26/22.

A tropical wave has extends its axis along 17W and S of 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in
the vicinity of the wave from 05N to 15N and E of 27W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W and S of 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this
tropical wave as it is embedded in a dry Saharan airmass.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 82W and
south of 21N, moving W near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring across the northern portion of the wave
mainly N of 17N affecting western Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Waves 23-24-25 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/27/22.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W and S of
24N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry and
dusty Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of
significant convection with this feature at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W and S of
18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. This wave is also embedded in the
dry and dusty Saharan airmass previously mentioned inhibiting
significant convection.

A tropical wave has its axis along 89W and S of 20N, moving W
near 10-15 kt. Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft
support scattered moderate convection S of 20N and W of 86W.

[jlauderdal]

There's no denying that this year has been rather robust with exiting African waves; definitely, definitely not like 2013 where waves were struggling to stay convective over the MDR and simply dried up upon leaving land

Wait until mid august as wxman57 pointed out recently, too much hostility in the MDR for now and that isn't changing this week or next, at least. If the weenies want to get excited about a GFS run at 240h and beyond, have at it.

[cycloneye]

Waves 24-25 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/28/22.

A tropical wave has its axis along 34W and S of 21N, moving W at
15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 03N to 11N
between 28W and 42W.

Another tropical wave has its axis along 49W and S of 21N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. A surface trough is N of the wave and extends
from 28N48W to 23N49W. Shower activity is noted near the trough,
while scattered showers are across the southern portion of the
wave mainly S of 08N. This wave is embedded in the dry and dusty
Saharan airmass, which is inhibiting significant convection at
this time. Computer model shows moisture associated with this
tropical wave reaching the Leeward Islands by Fri.

[cycloneye]

That wave looks interesting but...

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1552638040060973059

[Steve H.]

Should be our next invest in my opinion

[cycloneye]

Wave #26 has been introduced on the 00z surface analysis near the coast of West Africa.

[cycloneye]

Waves 24-25-26 at 12:05 UTC discussion on 7/29/22.

A tropical wave is along 19W, south of 20N based on satellite
imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic data. The wave is
moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this
feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of
20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near
the southern portion of the wave axis, from 04N to 06N between
45W and 47W. The northern portion is surrounded by a dry and
dusty Saharan airmass.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W,
south of 22N and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 17N to 20N between 55W and 58W.