2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[tarheelprogrammer]

Me personally, I am starting to have my doubts about this season. Models are still showing hostile conditions in the near term. I am not going to use 2013 but a down season overall for activity is gaining steam. We will need the Atlantic to wake up soon or predictions of hyperactivity will start backtracking. However, it only takes one and 1992 is a good example. Just my 2 cents.

[SFLcane]

It’s July 24th folks.

It will be fun to look back at some of these post August 28th when there’s 2 hurricanes churning out there.

[Category5Kaiju]

It’s July 24th folks.

It will be fun to look back at some of these post August 28th when there’s 2 hurricanes churning out there.

Or, as we have seen the last many years, a Cat 4 in the Gulf

Like I said, I just do not see why this SAL/dry air outbreak is any different from years such as 2021, 2019, and so forth. There's nothing about it that seems to be alarmingly abnormal.

[toad strangler]

Me personally, I am starting to have my doubts about this season. Models are still showing hostile conditions in the near term. I am not going to use 2013 but a down season overall for activity is gaining steam. We will need the Atlantic to wake up soon or predictions of hyperactivity will start backtracking. However, it only takes one and 1992 is a good example. Just my 2 cents.

The basin is going exactly as it should be right now. That and long range globals are far too unreliable when it comes to picking up on genesis. Usually, it won’t be until the near term when they pick up on the switch being flipped. Enjoy the peace & quiet while you can.

[zzh]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535639681601196033



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535640676116725760



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1535642726489681922

[tolakram]

Me personally, I am starting to have my doubts about this season. Models are still showing hostile conditions in the near term. I am not going to use 2013 but a down season overall for activity is gaining steam. We will need the Atlantic to wake up soon or predictions of hyperactivity will start backtracking. However, it only takes one and 1992 is a good example. Just my 2 cents.

Don't we see this every year, almost the exact kind of post? I'm starting to have my doubts? We've seen that the Atlantic does not have to wake up until late August to be hyperactive. I really don't understand this logic, especially since it's demonstrably false. Why is it in late July that people start doubing the season potential when July is almost always dead?

I have doubted hyperactivity from the get go, just to be clear, but I don't think activity will be less than I was expecting in May. In my opinion hyperactivity is another meaningless stat invented to label seasons that are especially active, with either really strong or long tracking storms. I guess this concludes my yearly rant about ACE.

[Wampadawg]

Me personally, I am starting to have my doubts about this season. Models are still showing hostile conditions in the near term. I am not going to use 2013 but a down season overall for activity is gaining steam. We will need the Atlantic to wake up soon or predictions of hyperactivity will start backtracking. However, it only takes one and 1992 is a good example. Just my 2 cents.

Don't we see this every year, almost the exact kind of post? I'm starting to have my doubts? We've seen that the Atlantic does not have to wake up until late August to be hyperactive. I really don't understand this logic, especially since it's demonstrably false. Why is it in late July that people start doubing the season potential when July is almost always dead?

I have doubted hyperactivity from the get go, just to be clear, but I don't think activity will be less than I was expecting in May. In my opinion hyperactivity is another meaningless stat invented to label seasons that are especially active, with either really strong or long tracking storms. I guess this concludes my yearly rant about ACE.

Rant on man! It’s funny everyone wants to hit the big Red Panic Button lol

[captainbarbossa19]

Me personally, I am starting to have my doubts about this season. Models are still showing hostile conditions in the near term. I am not going to use 2013 but a down season overall for activity is gaining steam. We will need the Atlantic to wake up soon or predictions of hyperactivity will start backtracking. However, it only takes one and 1992 is a good example. Just my 2 cents.

Don't we see this every year, almost the exact kind of post? I'm starting to have my doubts? We've seen that the Atlantic does not have to wake up until late August to be hyperactive. I really don't understand this logic, especially since it's demonstrably false. Why is it in late July that people start doubing the season potential when July is almost always dead?

I have doubted hyperactivity from the get go, just to be clear, but I don't think activity will be less than I was expecting in May. In my opinion hyperactivity is another meaningless stat invented to label seasons that are especially active, with either really strong or long tracking storms. I guess this concludes my yearly rant about ACE.

In 2017 and 2018, many thought the season would be dead including some experts, but August brought Harvey and Florence in the two years. July is almost always unfavorable for lots of activity. Even early to mid-August is often unfavorable. Also, as we have seen in recent years, models have not been great picking up the rapid changes when they occur in August, especially if conditions are super unfavorable in July to mid-August. Until I see the post about the CSU bell, I am not going to think the season is going in one direction or the other.

[psyclone]

I like checking in on this thread and don't really have anything substantial to add other than it looks like we're right on schedule. We probably get 2...maybe 3 more weeks of tranquility and then something may happen. I'm a believer in an above average, though not hyperactive season...owing to a natural bias to anchor closer to those longer term averages.

[Deshaunrob17]

If this season somehow underperforms (let’s say Ace between 120 and 150), I blame the ongoing strong La Niña . We don’t usually see crazy busy seasons (180 + Ace) with strong La Niña ….

[Category5Kaiju]

If this season somehow underperforms (let’s say Ace between 120 and 150), I blame the ongoing strong La Niña . We don’t usually see crazy busy seasons (180 + Ace) with strong La Niña ….

Actually, this La Nina isn't really forecast to strengthen all that crazily; seems like it staying in the -0.5 to -1.0 C territory is most likely

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok ok, let's backtrack things a bit here and utilize some heuristics to decipher what is going on and what we could expect going forward.

The Atlantic is the Atlantic. Yes, dry air, dry air, dry air. That's normal for this time of the year, and if we were getting a long-track, powerhouse storm by now or early next month, then yes that would be extremely anomalous. Allens, Charleys, and Emilys should never be seen as the norm. In fact, judging by some of the years like 2011, 1999, 1998, 1989, and 1988 that are being used as comparisons with this year, we shouldn't even expect our first major hurricane to form until after August 20. But let's also look at what's going on in the Pacific right now.

The WPAC has been and continues to be extremely inactive, with models not really keen on anything major forming there anytime soon. If anything, enthusiasts who track the WPAC should be the ones talking about busts since this is highly unusual for what should be the most active basin on the planet in a given year and a basin that still should be at least awake during July.

The EPAC has been undoubtedly and anomalously impressive this year despite the La Nina, but while we do have some areas to watch for development, with Estelle's vast underperformance and with models ever so slightly starting to tick down in how impressive they think the EPAC will be in the coming weeks (in terms of storm numbers and storm strengths), we can clearly see how the EPAC is still vulnerable to climatology and La Nina forcing, and eventually it would be logical to assume that the EPAC will be taken over by the Atlantic, especially considering we do not seem to have any evidence of a powerful American Standing Wave or localized EPAC rising cell that was normally seen in the 80s and 90s, even before I was born.

Now I expect activity in the Atlantic to ramp up near August 20 and the 2013 comments to diminish by then, but then begs the question, what about hyperactivity? Interestingly, many of the hyperactive seasons that are being compared to what 2022 could potentially be (1996, 1998, and 1999) featured quality activity, with a relatively low (if not even slightly below average) number of total named storms. Maybe this year could be a year to feature 15 or so storms, but have like 4-6 major hurricanes, much of them forming in ASO? Who knows. It's not like 1996, 1998, and 1999 had impressively warm MDRs by this time of the year either. Maybe this year would sacrifice total NS count for quality activity? Speculation of course. Even one or two storms could make the difference. Remember last year with Sam? If Sam for some reason didn't happen, then 2021 would have actually ended with a pretty below average ACE count.

I'm still a believer of the "subtropics being cool and MDR being warm" idea giving rise to a relatively high ceiling for deep tropical activity this year down the line. It's honestly very exciting to see how no two hurricane seasons are equal and how one year may seem very unfavorable and overperform contrary to expectations and vice versa. But the point of this rather long (but hopefully reassuring post) that I am trying to make here is unless there's substantial evidence of the Pacific basins somehow springing to live and stealing all of the rising motion, or a massive, unholy amount of dry air and stability blanketing the Atlantic during late August, I still think that this season has the potential to end up very active. The engrained La Nina base state, tropical/subtropical sst anomaly warmth gradient, and ever-so-slightly depowering Pacific all are preliminary reasons why I think so.

[Steve H.]

Very good post Cat5. Everyone gets impatient during July and I fear that it’s going to get real busy this August with many land threats. Stay tuned

[zzh]

A very dry Atlantic.

[wwizard]

It’s July 24th folks.

It will be fun to look back at some of these post August 28th when there’s 2 hurricanes churning out there.

Right. Since 2005, 71.8% of NS happen in ASO. 17.6% have formed in June/July. The season hasn't even really started yet.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If this season somehow underperforms (let’s say Ace between 120 and 150), I blame the ongoing strong La Niña . We don’t usually see crazy busy seasons (180 + Ace) with strong La Niña ….

Actually, this La Nina isn't really forecast to strengthen all that crazily; seems like it staying in the -0.5 to -1.0 C territory is most likely

Well, forecasting ninas is like saying who will win the Super Bowl next year. You have a good idea who might be competing and who is favored, but it’s still nothing more than an educated guess. I personally am in the -2c camp but who knows?!

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/8MDfqWU.gif
A very dry Atlantic.

Yep, July. If we are going to get any activity before the end of August it will be in the western half of the basin unless SAL does something unexpected. In my opinion.

SAL


source https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/8MDfqWU.gif
A very dry Atlantic.

Yep, July. If we are going to get any activity before the end of August it will be in the western half of the basin unless SAL does something unexpected. In my opinion.

SAL
https://i.imgur.com/zYXzOFR.png

source https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

I agree. I think if we see anything develop, it may be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf. It might be something similar to Earl (2016) or Franklin (2017). Conditions should be more favorable there first with the MJO passage.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/8MDfqWU.gif
A very dry Atlantic.

Yep, July. If we are going to get any activity before the end of August it will be in the western half of the basin unless SAL does something unexpected. In my opinion.

SAL
https://i.imgur.com/zYXzOFR.png

source https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

I agree. I think if we see anything develop, it may be in the Western Caribbean or Gulf. It might be something similar to Earl (2016) or Franklin (2017). Conditions should be more favorable there first with the MJO passage.

Prediction granted . Well, maybe...

[Steve]

Me personally, I am starting to have my doubts about this season. Models are still showing hostile conditions in the near term. I am not going to use 2013 but a down season overall for activity is gaining steam. We will need the Atlantic to wake up soon or predictions of hyperactivity will start backtracking. However, it only takes one and 1992 is a good example. Just my 2 cents.

Lol. And you should have gone all in with 2013 while you were at it.