ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

This Niña and it’s associated atmospheric state is just so relentless. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Similar to a 100-year flood, the strength of this ENSO event is increasingly unlikely to occur anytime soon when it is over. I am also wondering if this could be like a pendulum and swing hard in the opposite direction?

You mean a Moderate to Strong El Niño for 2023, 2024, 2025, same threepeat that La Niña has done?

[captainbarbossa19]

This Niña and it’s associated atmospheric state is just so relentless. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Similar to a 100-year flood, the strength of this ENSO event is increasingly unlikely to occur anytime soon when it is over. I am also wondering if this could be like a pendulum and swing hard in the opposite direction?

You mean a Moderate to Strong El Niño for 2023, 2024, 2025, same threepeat that La Niña has done?

Possibly, but not necessarily the same duration. I was referring to just seeing a strong El Niño though. I think the threepeat is highly unlikely.

[Category5Kaiju]

Similar to a 100-year flood, the strength of this ENSO event is increasingly unlikely to occur anytime soon when it is over. I am also wondering if this could be like a pendulum and swing hard in the opposite direction?

You mean a Moderate to Strong El Niño for 2023, 2024, 2025, same threepeat that La Niña has done?

Possibly, but not necessarily the same duration. I was referring to just seeing a strong El Niño though. I think the threepeat is highly unlikely.

I guess someone else with more knowledge could elaborate on this, but it's actually very rare to see back-to-back El Nino years historically, and it's easier to see multi-year La Nina events unfold. However, historically speaking, El Ninos tend to be able to achieve more powerful states moreso than La Ninas; for example, we've never seen a "Very Strong" La Nina with greater than 2 C deviations from normal, but there have been 3 of such El Ninos in 1982, 1997, and 2015.

[Yellow Evan]

Generally longer we go without a Nino the stronger the next Nino is. There are also a couple instances of long lived Ninos after long lived Ninas - the 1932-1942 stretch had 1 of each.

[zzh]

After triple La Nina you tend to get multi peak El Nino.

[Category5Kaiju]

You know at this point, I am very much expecting an El Nino next year. Although with how persistent this La Nina is, I genuinely wouldn't be shocked if we only are able to achieve warm neutral next year either

[NotSparta]

This Niña and it’s associated atmospheric state is just so relentless. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Similar to a 100-year flood, the strength of this ENSO event is increasingly unlikely to occur anytime soon when it is over. I am also wondering if this could be like a pendulum and swing hard in the opposite direction?

You mean a Moderate to Strong El Niño for 2023, 2024, 2025, same threepeat that La Niña has done?

I would guess not, that sort of duration is more of a La Niña thing. It is very difficult to have a +ENSO event last more than a couple of years especially in -PDO

[skyline385]

There is also the possibility that this strong Nina is a by-product of the super Nino we had in 2015. I doubt we will be able to break that anytime soon.

[Category5Kaiju]

There is also the possibility that this strong Nina is a by-product of the super Nino we had in 2015. I doubt we will be able to break that anytime soon.

I could definitely be wrong, but I wonder if this ongoing, active streak of Atlantic seasons has anything to do with that extremely powerful El Nino doing something to the atmosphere?

[Yellow Evan]

There is also the possibility that this strong Nina is a by-product of the super Nino we had in 2015. I doubt we will be able to break that anytime soon.

I'd buy this if the super Nino in 2015 transitioned right into this Nina (which historically is generally how you get a strong, epic La Nina like this) but that isn't the case.

[weeniepatrol]

This Niña and it’s associated atmospheric state is just so relentless. I’ve never seen anything like it.

Similar to a 100-year flood, the strength of this ENSO event is increasingly unlikely to occur anytime soon when it is over. I am also wondering if this could be like a pendulum and swing hard in the opposite direction?

I personally am bullish on an El Nino response initiating this Winter into Spring. La Nina has probably exhausted itself by now, after three years.. surely..

While embedded in a broader +PDO, the La Nina response to 2015 was quite anemic. I also recall the "jetweirding" - perhaps this would be a good research paper

[Kingarabian]

For El Nino, need to see a proper SOI flip beginning mid September. That would mean dateline WWBs are more likely later in the winter. 850mb winds near the MC/WPAC that would weaken the Walker cell haven't been impressive over the past 90 days. So no signs of the atmosphere switching yet.

[Category5Kaiju]

For El Nino, need to see a proper SOI flip beginning mid September. That would mean dateline WWBs are more likely later in the winter. 850mb winds near the MC/WPAC that would weaken the Walker cell haven't been impressive over the past 90 days. So no signs of the atmosphere switching yet.

So unless something dramatically changes, you think that at tops, neutral would be most likely for next year?

[weeniepatrol]

The record-strong easterly wind stress has now resulted in an incredible upwelling Kelvin wave initiation. Looking for CSU and NOAA to reaffirm their numbers

[Kingarabian]

For El Nino, need to see a proper SOI flip beginning mid September. That would mean dateline WWBs are more likely later in the winter. 850mb winds near the MC/WPAC that would weaken the Walker cell haven't been impressive over the past 90 days. So no signs of the atmosphere switching yet.

So unless something dramatically changes, you think that at tops, neutral would be most likely for next year?

We won't get a decent 'feeling' until early winter. But just because it's a 3 peat Nina, doesn't mean El Nino to follow is a sure bet. However if next year is another -ENSO event, 2024 El Nino odds would be near 100%. If we fail to get an El Nino in the next 2 years, then that would be historic.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has the MJO stronger in phase 5/MC entering August. La Nina is going to run the equatorial Pacific.

[Monsoonjr99]

Given how the WPac subsurface warm pool has really built over this triple year La Nina event, if +ENSO does get going in 2023, I have a feeling it could become a strong one.

[Category5Kaiju]

If for whatever reason 2023 ends up as warm neutral, then does that mean there is an elevated chance of a bona fide Nino happening in 2024 instead?

[skyline385]

If for whatever reason 2023 ends up as warm neutral, then does that mean there is an elevated chance of a bona fide Nino happening in 2024 instead?

Historically, there has never been a case of a double year or triple year Nina going to ENSO-neutral (warm or cold) and then Nina again. The one exception is 1972 where it swinged to a Super Nino after two years of Nina and then swinged back again into a Nina but this was influenced very likely by the Nino forming as a strong Nino (ONI>2.0) is always followed by a La Nina in the next year.

[weeniepatrol]

Sometimes gifs speak louder than words...