2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Blown Away]

How many weeks have we been 1-2 weeks away from favorable Atlantic conditions??

Here in SFL, tonight was first night this summer we had cool moist onshore flow, which to me signals start of hurricane season.

[St0rmTh0r]

How many weeks have we been 1-2 weeks away from favorable Atlantic conditions??

Here in SFL, tonight was first night this summer we had cool moist onshore flow, which to me signals start of hurricane season.

how do you know just from that can you explain please?

[weeniepatrol]

How many weeks have we been 1-2 weeks away from favorable Atlantic conditions??

Here in SFL, tonight was first night this summer we had cool moist onshore flow, which to me signals start of hurricane season.

Nice! Envy all the Floridians; as a Jax native transplanted to the PNW I sure miss it

[SFLcane]

Nothing till September?

 https://twitter.com/WxDickey/status/1551900740767064065

[SFLcane]

GFS seems to be overdoing Pacific MJO But I definitely expect a quiet next few weeks. Wouldn't shock me if August is mostly quiet

[SFLcane]

I think we might see the Atlantic trying the 3rd week of August and then taking off the 4th week.

[skyline385]

The GFS isn’t alone in that, there was some chatter yesterday on whether the strong -IOD is pulling the rising air cell away from East African coast and potentially affecting WAM activity while the Atlantic remains under a positive VP.

[SFLcane]

The GFS isn’t alone in that, there was some chatter yesterday on whether the strong -IOD is pulling the rising air cell away from East African coast and potentially affecting WAM activity while the Atlantic remains under a positive VP.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220726/7ff2a00cbb3a3ad7ad9b213e5c6e9445.jpg

That look on the EPS is fine.

[skyline385]

The GFS isn’t alone in that, there was some chatter yesterday on whether the strong -IOD is pulling the rising air cell away from East African coast and potentially affecting WAM activity while the Atlantic remains under a positive VP.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220726/7ff2a00cbb3a3ad7ad9b213e5c6e9445.jpg

That look on the EPS is fine.

This is what I was referring to, it’s further east than the typical configuration because of the strong IOD

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1551676448787730432




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1551678551237316608

[SFLcane]

The GFS isn’t alone in that, there was some chatter yesterday on whether the strong -IOD is pulling the rising air cell away from East African coast and potentially affecting WAM activity while the Atlantic remains under a positive VP.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220726/7ff2a00cbb3a3ad7ad9b213e5c6e9445.jpg

That look on the EPS is fine.

This is what I was referring to, it’s further east than the typical configuration because of the strong IOD

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1551676448787730432

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1551678551237316608

There just isn't much evidence that -IOD affects the Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

If we have any big problems right now, it's wavebreaking and the average MDR SSTs.

[Ntxw]

The standing wave is definitely different than the last 4-5 seasons. So we shouldn't expect the same players for better or for worse. MC-> WPAC standing wave is moody for the Atlantic, MC being good for deep tropics later on but as it shifts slightly east, it can take away from Africa.

[SFLcane]

Interesting to see we are on par with 2017. Not saying at all that another year like that is coming. But just because its quite as it should be in july does not mean the tropics can't quickly come to life in 2-3 weeks.

 https://twitter.com/TimPandajisKHOU/status/1551931243381592081

[Category5Kaiju]

Interesting to see we are on par with 2017. Not saying at all that another year like that is coming. But just because its quite as it should be in july does not mean the tropics can't quickly come to life in 2-3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/TimPandajisKHOU/status/1551931243381592081?s=20&t=mbeF6Mop5va3ym6BDwBu6A

If I am not mistaken, 2017 also had the lowest ACE for the first 5 storms to form recorded. Then as we all know, it tremendously made up for the deficit

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The standing wave is definitely different than the last 4-5 seasons. So we shouldn't expect the same players for better or for worse. MC-> WPAC standing wave is moody for the Atlantic, MC being good for deep tropics later on but as it shifts slightly east, it can take away from Africa.

I think it's a combination of the very strong background Niña forcing combined with the -IOD. 2020 had a +IOD combined with a developing Niña which essentially supercharged the WAM (albeit for the worse if anything because it resulted in a messy MDR at times filled with sloppy monsoon troughs, very large TWs and waves crashing into each other because trades were next to nonexistent). Last year I believe the IOD was more neutral-ish so the effect was lesser to an extent - I think the Atlantic Niño might have played more of a role in that regard.

If you compare this year to the composite of June/July for recent La Niña years with -IOD you'll see that this year isn't too dissimilar, with the bulk of the rising cell over the SE IO/MC. In other words I feel we are seeing something closer to what you'd expect for a typical Niña, as -ENSO is usually paired with -IOD which causes that ascent in that region.

[Ntxw]

The standing wave is definitely different than the last 4-5 seasons. So we shouldn't expect the same players for better or for worse. MC-> WPAC standing wave is moody for the Atlantic, MC being good for deep tropics later on but as it shifts slightly east, it can take away from Africa.

I think it's a combination of the very strong background Niña forcing combined with the -IOD. 2020 had a +IOD combined with a developing Niña which essentially supercharged the WAM (albeit for the worse if anything because it resulted in a messy MDR at times filled with sloppy monsoon troughs, very large TWs and waves crashing into each other because trades were next to nonexistent). Last year I believe the IOD was more neutral-ish so the effect was lesser to an extent - I think the Atlantic Niño might have played more of a role in that regard.

If you compare this year to the composite of June/July for recent La Niña years with -IOD you'll see that this year isn't too dissimilar, with the bulk of the rising cell over the SE IO/MC. In other words I feel we are seeing something closer to what you'd expect for a typical Niña, as -ENSO is usually paired with -IOD which causes that ascent in that region.
https://i.ibb.co/ggWZ48G/jgdjj-U6f1x.png
https://i.ibb.co/7vH6SLX/compday-RUUvi-G4b83.gif

I ran some similar narr and along with your graphics there are subtle differences in the Pacific west to east, not a totally exact match. It's a huge basin so even a 50/50 difference is significant, imo. If the the rising motion has to split between MC and WPAC it'll be a lot of back and forth between favorable vs unfavorable.

[Category5Kaiju]

The standing wave is definitely different than the last 4-5 seasons. So we shouldn't expect the same players for better or for worse. MC-> WPAC standing wave is moody for the Atlantic, MC being good for deep tropics later on but as it shifts slightly east, it can take away from Africa.

I think it's a combination of the very strong background Niña forcing combined with the -IOD. 2020 had a +IOD combined with a developing Niña which essentially supercharged the WAM (albeit for the worse if anything because it resulted in a messy MDR at times filled with sloppy monsoon troughs, very large TWs and waves crashing into each other because trades were next to nonexistent). Last year I believe the IOD was more neutral-ish so the effect was lesser to an extent - I think the Atlantic Niño might have played more of a role in that regard.

If you compare this year to the composite of June/July for recent La Niña years with -IOD you'll see that this year isn't too dissimilar, with the bulk of the rising cell over the SE IO/MC. In other words I feel we are seeing something closer to what you'd expect for a typical Niña, as -ENSO is usually paired with -IOD which causes that ascent in that region.
https://i.ibb.co/ggWZ48G/jgdjj-U6f1x.png
https://i.ibb.co/7vH6SLX/compday-RUUvi-G4b83.gif

Yeah great analysis there! Unlike the past several seasons, I wonder if this year may be different in that it is not like a firehose of storms and waves like 2020 or 2021 but rather less quantity and more quality. As in we may see smaller waves get their act together more easily than the waves from the previous seasons in the MDR

[captainbarbossa19]

Nothing till September?

https://twitter.com/WxDickey/status/1551900740767064065?s=20&t=mbeF6Mop5va3ym6BDwBu6A

Looks favorable for the most part to me. You don't want the rising motion over the Americas to get activity in the Atlantic. You want it over Africa and the Indian Ocean.

[hcane27]

Nothing till September?

https://twitter.com/WxDickey/status/1551900740767064065?s=20&t=mbeF6Mop5va3ym6BDwBu6A

Looks favorable for the most part to me. You don't want the rising motion over the Americas to get activity in the Atlantic. You want it over Africa and the Indian Ocean.

Possible that the influence you speak of actually needs to be skewed west more to enhance the Atlantic.

[weeniepatrol]

The GFS isn’t alone in that, there was some chatter yesterday on whether the strong -IOD is pulling the rising air cell away from East African coast and potentially affecting WAM activity while the Atlantic remains under a positive VP.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220726/7ff2a00cbb3a3ad7ad9b213e5c6e9445.jpg

This is nearly identical to the hyperactive composite.