2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[tolakram]

We're entering peak cancel season, I expect it to get worse over the next couple of weeks until a storm forms, then it will abate but we still won't know how active the season will be until we get to the end of September. If you were around for 2013 what made it interesting was storms forming in June, July, and August, but all being weak and failing to strengthen. If 2022 ends up slow it will be a completely different story.

The call for an active 2013 was correct in many ways as there were plenty of opportunities for storms to form, and they did, but the environment was too hostile to strengthen. During peak season we has a couple of hurricanes, THIS IS IT! But no.

What I find maddening about season cancel season is that there's literally an unlimited number of reasons for the season to bust, and comparisons made that, in my opinion, are completely invalid. I'm an amateur though and don't mind being corrected, I might even learn something.

[Javlin]

maddening about season cancel season........This cat not complaining one iota.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I’m afraid hurricane Gordon refused to show up to hurricane season. Season 2022 is canceled on Netflix. The EPAC inc. has bought out the Atlantic hurricane season. I’m sorry. Season canceled.

[Deshaunrob17]

That SAL is the worst I've seen since last July.

I remember the "Godzilla" outbreak in 2020. The SAL was so thick for almost a week that our skies were brown and there was and "earthy" scent hanging in the air. On the two worst days a number of people reported chewing sand particles as they went about their business. Pretty sure this is the norm in the last few years.

Lol it literally was raining Saharan Dust in many Caribbean islands in July 2020.

[Deshaunrob17]

Ok, so this is interesting...looks like those Euro forecasts during the middle of this month calling for the MDR to warm up during the end of this month may have actually been onto something.

https://i.imgur.com/CWaBtlu.png

https://i.imgur.com/19AE7SY.png

I mean, I think we can all agree here that this indeed is the MDR warming, right?

And why do some people think the Atlantic is going to less active because of the cold anomalies off the SW coast of Africa? It didn't seem to be a problem for this year below. Also, note the slightly cooler than average subtropics. The subtropics are cooler now, but I found this image very interesting.

https://i.imgur.com/IavqpnE.png

2005 and 2020 will always puzzle me.. Yes, both years had record breaking activity in the Basin as a whole. However, you would think that the MDR would go nuts because of the record warmth, but both years barely had any hurricanes in the MDR. Everything was west based.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSWilmingtonNC/status/1552317615560790016




I would also hazard a guess that low ocean temps in this area are either because of the dust, or the measurements are off due to the dust.

[captainbarbossa19]

Ok, so this is interesting...looks like those Euro forecasts during the middle of this month calling for the MDR to warm up during the end of this month may have actually been onto something.

https://i.imgur.com/CWaBtlu.png

https://i.imgur.com/19AE7SY.png

I mean, I think we can all agree here that this indeed is the MDR warming, right?

And why do some people think the Atlantic is going to less active because of the cold anomalies off the SW coast of Africa? It didn't seem to be a problem for this year below. Also, note the slightly cooler than average subtropics. The subtropics are cooler now, but I found this image very interesting.

https://i.imgur.com/IavqpnE.png

2005 and 2020 will always puzzle me.. Yes, both years had record breaking activity in the Basin as a whole. However, you would think that the MDR would go nuts because of the record warmth, but both years barely had any hurricanes in the MDR. Everything was west based.

I think both years were rather heavy SAL years. That certainly had an impact on westward development. I honestly get more concerned the years we have massive SAL outbreaks before peak season because it seems like the threat is higher for TCs striking land later. We have SAL every year, but some years we definitely have more than average.

[zzh]

2005 had record low SAL.
2005 and 2020 lacked strong MDR systems because of Atlantic Nina.

[Category5Kaiju]

2005 had record low SAL.
2005 and 2020 lacked strong MDR systems because of Atlantic Nina.

Not completely sure about 2005, but I actually sort of disagree with Atlantic Nina being the cause for the dearth of strong MDR systems in 2020. While Atlantic Nino/Nina is a poorly understood phenomenon that must be studied further to make conclusions, from my understanding, 2020 was like this due to how robust the WAM was. It was so strong as a matter of fact that giant waves were being ejected from the African continent nonstop, and thanks to the really weak westerlies, this caused a I-95 like traffic jam with these waves, where one would crash into another and form a blob of convection, causing bundling and spin-ups into TCs to take a much longer period of time. If you were to observe, waves such as the ones that spawned legendary MDR storms like Irma, Ivan, Floyd, or Georges were relatively compact and small, and the years that featured those systems did not really feature such a powerful WAM either. As you can see here, too much of a good thing is bad for TCs.

Now as for this year, with the WAM not being as insanely strong as the past two years, I am beginning to really wonder if instead of quantity, we are able to see at least a few decent MDR systems, with wave-crashing and extremely giant waves not really being a big player this time around

[Teban54]

2005 had record low SAL.
2005 and 2020 lacked strong MDR systems because of Atlantic Nina.

Not completely sure about 2005, but I actually sort of disagree with Atlantic Nina being the cause for the dearth of strong MDR systems in 2020. While Atlantic Nino/Nina is a poorly understood phenomenon that must be studied further to make conclusions, from my understanding, 2020 was like this due to how robust the WAM was. It was so strong as a matter of fact that giant waves were being ejected from the African continent nonstop, and thanks to the really weak westerlies, this caused a I-95 like traffic jam with these waves, where one would crash into another and form a blob of convection, causing bundling and spin-ups into TCs to take a much longer period of time. If you were to observe, waves such as the ones that spawned legendary MDR storms like Irma, Ivan, Floyd, or Georges were relatively compact and small, and the years that featured those systems did not really feature such a powerful WAM either. As you can see here, too much of a good thing is bad for TCs.

Now as for this year, with the WAM not being as insanely strong as the past two years, I am beginning to really wonder if instead of quantity, we are able to see at least a few decent MDR systems, with wave-crashing and extremely giant waves not really being a big player this time around

That, and the typhoon-induced TUTT perfectly timed for the MDR season in 2020.

[zzh]

2005 had record low SAL.
2005 and 2020 lacked strong MDR systems because of Atlantic Nina.

Not completely sure about 2005, but I actually sort of disagree with Atlantic Nina being the cause for the dearth of strong MDR systems in 2020. While Atlantic Nino/Nina is a poorly understood phenomenon that must be studied further to make conclusions, from my understanding, 2020 was like this due to how robust the WAM was. It was so strong as a matter of fact that giant waves were being ejected from the African continent nonstop, and thanks to the really weak westerlies, this caused a I-95 like traffic jam with these waves, where one would crash into another and form a blob of convection, causing bundling and spin-ups into TCs to take a much longer period of time. If you were to observe, waves such as the ones that spawned legendary MDR storms like Irma, Ivan, Floyd, or Georges were relatively compact and small, and the years that featured those systems did not really feature such a powerful WAM either. As you can see here, too much of a good thing is bad for TCs.

Now as for this year, with the WAM not being as insanely strong as the past two years, I am beginning to really wonder if instead of quantity, we are able to see at least a few decent MDR systems, with wave-crashing and extremely giant waves not really being a big player this time around

1. 2005 had an average WAM.
2. 2021 had a even stronger WAM than 2020. 2021 also had broad monsoon troughs, but there was also Larry and Sam.

Westerly winds from strong WAM can help spin up waves in southern end of monsoon trough.

[Category5Kaiju]

And why do some people think the Atlantic is going to less active because of the cold anomalies off the SW coast of Africa? It didn't seem to be a problem for this year below. Also, note the slightly cooler than average subtropics. The subtropics are cooler now, but I found this image very interesting.

https://i.imgur.com/IavqpnE.png

2005 and 2020 will always puzzle me.. Yes, both years had record breaking activity in the Basin as a whole. However, you would think that the MDR would go nuts because of the record warmth, but both years barely had any hurricanes in the MDR. Everything was west based.

I think both years were rather heavy SAL years. That certainly had an impact on westward development. I honestly get more concerned the years we have massive SAL outbreaks before peak season because it seems like the threat is higher for TCs striking land later. We have SAL every year, but some years we definitely have more than average.

Quite interestingly, it seems like at least after a bit of looking through the 2019 archived indicators thread for fun, 2019 at several points in the summer had one of the lowest recorded SAL layers. Yet that year featured Abominable Barry in July, and that was it. You would think that if SAL was that low then we would have seen a Cat 5 Dorian in July or something like that, but that of course didn't happen. SAL isn't everything

[Hammy]

Ok, so this is interesting...looks like those Euro forecasts during the middle of this month calling for the MDR to warm up during the end of this month may have actually been onto something.

https://i.imgur.com/CWaBtlu.png

https://i.imgur.com/19AE7SY.png

I mean, I think we can all agree here that this indeed is the MDR warming, right?

And why do some people think the Atlantic is going to less active because of the cold anomalies off the SW coast of Africa? It didn't seem to be a problem for this year below. Also, note the slightly cooler than average subtropics. The subtropics are cooler now, but I found this image very interesting.

https://i.imgur.com/IavqpnE.png

2005 and 2020 will always puzzle me.. Yes, both years had record breaking activity in the Basin as a whole. However, you would think that the MDR would go nuts because of the record warmth, but both years barely had any hurricanes in the MDR. Everything was west based.

2020 had a huge problem that--given the current state of things may in fact be worse this year--the tropical waves were exiting way too far north to really do much, as they were bringing large amounts of dust with them.

2005 is more puzzling as I don't recall that being the case that year

[captainbarbossa19]

2005 and 2020 will always puzzle me.. Yes, both years had record breaking activity in the Basin as a whole. However, you would think that the MDR would go nuts because of the record warmth, but both years barely had any hurricanes in the MDR. Everything was west based.

I think both years were rather heavy SAL years. That certainly had an impact on westward development. I honestly get more concerned the years we have massive SAL outbreaks before peak season because it seems like the threat is higher for TCs striking land later. We have SAL every year, but some years we definitely have more than average.

Quite interestingly, it seems like at least after a bit of looking through the 2019 archived indicators thread for fun, 2019 at several points in the summer had one of the lowest recorded SAL layers. Yet that year featured Abominable Barry in July, and that was it. You would think that if SAL was that low then we would have seen a Cat 5 Dorian in July or something like that, but that of course didn't happen. SAL isn't everything

I definitely agree. SAL does inhibit development for waves. I think part of 2019's issue was the transition from +ENSO to neutral by peak season. After reading other members' comments about SAL, I think there must be basically no correlation between it before peak season and seasonal activity.

[Emmett_Brown]

For anyone who is interested, here is a simple article about the role that SAL plays in fertilizing the Amazon: https://www.knowitwall.com/episodes/sah ... he-amazon/

So SAL has been happening for thousands of years, our modern tech allows us to observe it better than before, so recent years seem more SAL filled, but this is probably just business as usual

[zzh]

I thought some people here do not trust those models in long range

[Category5Kaiju]

Dead MDR from Euro ensembles thru the 11th.

https://i.imgur.com/tqxiVFN.jpg

And just a few days ago, the ensembles were full of MDR members. What happened for such a significant switch flip?

Late July/early August model doldrums.

And this is EXACTLY why model-hugging is never the answer, especially those that are run in a climo-transition period like early August. It's one thing for consistency to happen, but if it's inconsistency like this, then you can't really say that they are onto any particular pattern.

Anyhow, Blown Away has shown how the GEFS is actually starting to catch more favorable conditions down the line in the Atlantic; Euro should eventually catch on I'm expecting

[weeniepatrol]

I thought some people here do not trust those models in long range

That's why when NOAA mentioned a possibility of MDR development next week, I said it's probably still too early

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1552396307695685632




ACE is a different story, but the EPAC seems to be really frontloading its season this year, which isn't very uncommon. As you can see here, La Nina years such as 2008, 2016, 2017, and 2021 featured a similar sequence of activity as well. Given that is the case, there's hardly anything to suggest that how the EPAC is behaving right now is anything strange and that it might squash the Atlantic's potential (ESPECIALLY with 2017 in the mix, ).

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1552396307695685632?cxt=HHwWgMCi7fCNnIsrAAAA

ACE is a different story, but the EPAC seems to be really frontloading its season this year, which isn't very uncommon. As you can see here, La Nina years such as 2008, 2016, 2017, and 2021 featured a similar sequence of activity as well. Given that is the case, there's hardly anything to suggest that how the EPAC is behaving right now is anything strange and that it might squash the Atlantic's potential (ESPECIALLY with 2017 in the mix, ).

It seems like most of these are developing from Atlantic waves as well so the drop-off will likely occur once Atlantic conditions change, as all but two of the listed years were above normal