skyline385 wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:If it weren't for a rare crossover in Bonnie, ACE would be near normal. Conditions are as I expect them to be with frequent -CCKWs and some La Nina pause. Wouldn't rule out 100 ACE this year.
That is a good point. If you exclude Bonnie, ACE isn't that crazy. I think 2017 had around 100 ACE although that wasn't a Nina season.
Just saying, if Dorian 2019 did not have a center relocation then NATL 2019 would have had around 85 ACE instead of 130 ACE. If we take out Irma from 2017 then NATL 2017 would have an ACE of 160 instead of 225.
What i am trying to say is that we shouldn’t be just ignoring one storm out of a season, it takes just one to define a season for some people.
Systems that the EPAC attempts to develop are usually AEWs crossing over. In La Nina they almost always struggle to become TCs because by the time when Easterly shear relaxes, theyre too far NW and face cooler water and dry air.
My point is that in regards to the above average ACE, it is misleading in a way that it shows the EPAC being very favorable despite the basin actually behaving close to normal. The EPAC didn't develop Bonnie by itself. It nearly crossed over as a minimal hurricane giving it a massive headstart. It struggled for a little bit but maintained its vigorous vortex, allowing it to receive EPAC hurricane characteristics earlier than expected, which let it succeed before moving over cooler waters.
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