2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Just an observation but 2000 seems to be popping up on list after list. I bet if you were gather all the tweets, experts, posts, etc 2000 is the most pinged. Curious if that analog works out, fits the background state and 3rd year -ENSO.

It's very true to suggest that 2000 would be a good analog for this year considering it's like the only other third-year La Nina in recent times. The only downside about using 2000 as an analog year is this:


*btw, if somebody would be kind enough to instruct me on how to find pre-2020 seasonal sst anomaly maps relating to the 5 km resolution NOAA ones, then I would sincerely appreciate that as I am a bit lost on where to find those exactly

The MDR is MUCH cooler compared to what we're seeing now. 2000 simply did not have the sst anomaly setup for a potent season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Just an observation but 2000 seems to be popping up on list after list. I bet if you were gather all the tweets, experts, posts, etc 2000 is the most pinged. Curious if that analog works out, fits the background state and 3rd year -ENSO.

1999 and 2000 seem to be referenced a lot. Both had dead Julys before activity eventually picked up in August, but while August 2000 started off hot with Alberto 1999 didn't get going until towards the middle of the month - ironically 1999 ended up being more active with 5 category 4 hurricanes and hyperactive ACE (177). We can obviously disregard 1993 and 2009 because those were +ENSO years.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 2000 season that many mention including today Dr Klotzbach.

[LarryWx]

Just an observation but 2000 seems to be popping up on list after list. I bet if you were gather all the tweets, experts, posts, etc 2000 is the most pinged. Curious if that analog works out, fits the background state and 3rd year -ENSO.

ACE for 2000 was at 119, which is 2nd only to 1894 for highest 3rd year Niña/cold neutral on record. I just picked 120 for my latest guess at this year's ACE. I had earlier been in the 110-140 range.

I maintain my highest concern area in the entire basin to be the Gulf coast of Florida because all 8 3rd year Niña/cold neutral analogs had significant impact there.

[Ntxw]

Just an observation but 2000 seems to be popping up on list after list. I bet if you were gather all the tweets, experts, posts, etc 2000 is the most pinged. Curious if that analog works out, fits the background state and 3rd year -ENSO.

It's very true to suggest that 2000 would be a good analog for this year considering it's like the only other third-year La Nina in recent times. The only downside about using 2000 as an analog year is this:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2000/anomnight.7.29.2000.gif
*btw, if somebody would be kind enough to instruct me on how to find pre-2020 seasonal sst anomaly maps relating to the 5 km resolution NOAA ones, then I would sincerely appreciate that as I am a bit lost on where to find those exactly

The MDR is MUCH cooler compared to what we're seeing now. 2000 simply did not have the sst anomaly setup for a potent season.

Overall global SSTs have warmed over the decades so you won't get an exact match, really what two years are? But spatially it is a decent fit currently.

Below is the link for 5km version.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/

[SoupBone]

Here is the 2000 season that many mention including today Dr Klotzbach.

https://i.imgur.com/RlD64X9.png

That would fit with Wxman's forecast for a heavier East Coast/Florida potential. Seems reasonable.

[Ntxw]

Here is 5km version of 2000 around the same date.



Below is on Sept 1st.

[Category5Kaiju]

Here is 5km version of 2000 around the same date.

https://i.imgur.com/ns84NsH.png

Below is on Sept 1st.

https://i.imgur.com/fH77Tr7.png

Thanks for sharing! Also wow, 2000 definitely seemed to have an MDR that cooled going into peak season , definitely a contrast to many of our recent years where the MDR warmed up going into peak season

[NDG]

Analog years for this include 1999, 2000 and 2009.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1553073944164323329

We can scratch out 2009 since it was an El Nino year.
1999 and 2000 are two La Nina years that I mentioned yesterday that got going later in August.
To some degree the other two La Nina years of 2016 (no storms during July) and 2017 (only 3 weak TSs during July, 2 which dissipated before reaching the Lesser Antilles) as well.

[Blown Away]

Dust.


Dry in the mid levels.

Dust & dry in the mid levels will keep the lid on for a few weeks. Models seem to crack the lid maybe @Aug 10th in the W Basin/GOM.

[Category5Kaiju]

Pretty much every enthusiastic Atlantic hurricane tracker in late July/early August (myself included):

[AnnularCane]

https://scatteredquotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/StarWars-AttackoftheClones-1.jpg

Pretty much every enthusiastic Atlantic hurricane tracker in late July/early August (myself included):

Probably also the African waves.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1553370376650072065

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1553370376650072065

I thought La Niña was around but....

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1553370376650072065

I thought La Niña was around but....

Yeah, I just think it's the July blues...Alex and Any's discussion seemed pretty interesting though; I'm honestly pretty sure that this mid-level dry air invasion stuff is just because it's July, nothing really strikes me as abnormal or 2013-ish considering the ENSO background state in particular

[SFLcane]

The Mdr will be fine come peak. I wound not get caught up in fluctuations that can normally happen.

Here it comes with another few more weeks for continued warming.

[SFLcane]

Folks, we are just spoiled by 2005 and we now think every July is gonna spin up 3 hurricanes. Fact is in a normal season most of July us quite for me personally july is another extension of June so no different. The first hurricane typicality does not form till second week of August. Patients grasshoppers the hurricanes will happen

[Spacecoast]

6z Shear
non-Nina like shear in Carib mid-Aug...

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

[quote="Spacecoast"]6z Shear
non-Nina like shear in Carib mid-Aug...
https://i.ibb.co/YdJDZ7b/gfs-shear-atl.gif/quote]

That looks like El Niño and not La Niña.