2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2281 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:13 am

It's July 30. Give it another month.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2282 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:23 am

If conditions remain hostile into mid-August, then I will be very doubtful that the Atlantic cracks 15 NS or 120 ACE. Unlike 2018/19 and 2021, which either had a slow early season or a massive drought in activity in July through parts of August, 2022 does not have the warm subtropics conductive to the formation of multiple shorties to boost seasonal numbers. 2022’s NS drought looks like it’ll be even longer than 2021’s, and the longer the Atlantic takes to wake up, the lower the ceiling will be for the season as a whole.

Also 2013 comparisons have been going on for longer than normal. You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2283 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:31 am

There are no phantom storms in the WCarb because it's not CAG season and we've seen years be quiet in mid-August and then wrap up in late August/early September with 2010 being the best example of such and while the setup isn't similar to those years this also happened in 2001, 2018, and 2019. Most of the 2013 talk has entered the conversation by Andy/Alex on twitter as a joke even if there are some SST similarities. We can take the 2013 comparison seriously if nothing is on the horizon a month from now but for now I think it's wise given the strength of the Nina and decent SST configuration to expect a ramp up in about 3 weeks like what usually occurs and when CCKW support will arrive per the EPS.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2284 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:05 pm

aspen wrote:If conditions remain hostile into mid-August, then I will be very doubtful that the Atlantic cracks 15 NS or 120 ACE. Unlike 2018/19 and 2021, which either had a slow early season or a massive drought in activity in July through parts of August, 2022 does not have the warm subtropics conductive to the formation of multiple shorties to boost seasonal numbers. 2022’s NS drought looks like it’ll be even longer than 2021’s, and the longer the Atlantic takes to wake up, the lower the ceiling will be for the season as a whole.

Also 2013 comparisons have been going on for longer than normal. You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.


Well, just keep in mind that we did have a season like 2010, which did not get the D storm until mid-August and went on to get 19 NSs. Not saying that will definitely be the case this year, but given it's July 30 and the transition period toward more favorable conditions should begin, I still think we will see a marked ramp-up soon despite models not showing much as of now.

Also, I still do not see how this year really resembles 2013. Literally the only similarity I see is the dry air stuff in the mid-level, but I have a hard time believing that that is going to be an issue for this year like 2013. I mean, we have a bona fide La Nina, and the subtropics are not as insanely warm as they were 9 years ago, not to mention the THC seems pretty robust with salinity being above average in the Atlantic. I personally would be very surprised to see this year get below 120 ACE, as that would be genuinely strange.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2285 Postby tolakram » Sat Jul 30, 2022 12:09 pm

aspen wrote:If conditions remain hostile into mid-August, then I will be very doubtful that the Atlantic cracks 15 NS or 120 ACE. Unlike 2018/19 and 2021, which either had a slow early season or a massive drought in activity in July through parts of August, 2022 does not have the warm subtropics conductive to the formation of multiple shorties to boost seasonal numbers. 2022’s NS drought looks like it’ll be even longer than 2021’s, and the longer the Atlantic takes to wake up, the lower the ceiling will be for the season as a whole.

Also 2013 comparisons have been going on for longer than normal. You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.


The 2013 comparisons really don't make sense to me. 2013 had storms all season, just weak. It's maddening to me that people keep bringing it up. What does the comparison even mean?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2286 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:09 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:There are no phantom storms in the WCarb because it's not CAG season and we've seen years be quiet in mid-August and then wrap up in late August/early September with 2010 being the best example of such and while the setup isn't similar to those years this also happened in 2001, 2018, and 2019. Most of the 2013 talk has entered the conversation by Andy/Alex on twitter as a joke even if there are some SST similarities. We can take the 2013 comparison seriously if nothing is on the horizon a month from now but for now I think it's wise given the strength of the Nina and decent SST configuration to expect a ramp up in about 3 weeks like what usually occurs and when CCKW support will arrive per the EPS.


GFS has a tendency to spin up phantoms in the WCar anytime there is a Gyre setup around CA, remember just a month ago the GFS/GEFS just wouldn't stop spinning up majors in the Caribbean. I am personally not taking the GEFS gulf members seriously until I see more support from other models.

Also yea, Andy, Alex and everyone else on wxtwitter have been always joking about 2013, I don't think I have seen a single serious post about 2013 from some of the reputed folks on wxtwitter.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2287 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jul 30, 2022 1:44 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
aspen wrote:If conditions remain hostile into mid-August, then I will be very doubtful that the Atlantic cracks 15 NS or 120 ACE. Unlike 2018/19 and 2021, which either had a slow early season or a massive drought in activity in July through parts of August, 2022 does not have the warm subtropics conductive to the formation of multiple shorties to boost seasonal numbers. 2022’s NS drought looks like it’ll be even longer than 2021’s, and the longer the Atlantic takes to wake up, the lower the ceiling will be for the season as a whole.

2021 is another good example. Took until 00z August 21 just to get to Chantal but at the end of the season there was 18 named storms
Also 2013 comparisons have been going on for longer than normal. You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.


Well, just keep in mind that we did have a season like 2010, which did not get the D storm until mid-August and went on to get 19 NSs. Not saying that will definitely be the case this year, but given it's July 30 and the transition period toward more favorable conditions should begin, I still think we will see a marked ramp-up soon despite models not showing much as of now.

Also, I still do not see how this year really resembles 2013. Literally the only similarity I see is the dry air stuff in the mid-level, but I have a hard time believing that that is going to be an issue for this year like 2013. I mean, we have a bona fide La Nina, and the subtropics are not as insanely warm as they were 9 years ago, not to mention the THC seems pretty robust with salinity being above average in the Atlantic. I personally would be very surprised to see this year get below 120 ACE, as that would be genuinely strange.


2019 is another good example. Took until 00z August 21 to get to Chantal but by the end of the season there were 18 named storms
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2288 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:30 pm

Image

All I will say is if this season markedly busts, then this image will go down in infamy :D
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2289 Postby toad strangler » Sat Jul 30, 2022 2:48 pm

aspen wrote:If conditions remain hostile into mid-August, then I will be very doubtful that the Atlantic cracks 15 NS or 120 ACE. Unlike 2018/19 and 2021, which either had a slow early season or a massive drought in activity in July through parts of August, 2022 does not have the warm subtropics conductive to the formation of multiple shorties to boost seasonal numbers. 2022’s NS drought looks like it’ll be even longer than 2021’s, and the longer the Atlantic takes to wake up, the lower the ceiling will be for the season as a whole.

Also 2013 comparisons have been going on for longer than normal. You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.


I don't have any trust in long range models being able to see storms. Zero. It makes absolutely no sense TO ME to take them seriously other than for overall table setting. Someone mentioned Dorian the other day. Dorian wasn't a blip on these models at these ranges. Also, it's darn near standard climatology for overall conditions to be on the hostile side the first half of August. History shows this. Why do we end up in the same place every year knowing this? :lol:

That said, to me ACE is a side dish.Like cauliflower. It's not the first, second, or third thing that I look to for seasonal impact. Lot's of people like cauliflower though. God Bless America :flag:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2290 Postby Cpv17 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:08 pm

toad strangler wrote:
aspen wrote:If conditions remain hostile into mid-August, then I will be very doubtful that the Atlantic cracks 15 NS or 120 ACE. Unlike 2018/19 and 2021, which either had a slow early season or a massive drought in activity in July through parts of August, 2022 does not have the warm subtropics conductive to the formation of multiple shorties to boost seasonal numbers. 2022’s NS drought looks like it’ll be even longer than 2021’s, and the longer the Atlantic takes to wake up, the lower the ceiling will be for the season as a whole.

Also 2013 comparisons have been going on for longer than normal. You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.


I don't have any trust in long range models being able to see storms. Zero. It makes absolutely no sense TO ME to take them seriously other than for overall table setting. Someone mentioned Dorian the other day. Dorian wasn't a blip on these models at these ranges. Also, it's darn near standard climatology for overall conditions to be on the hostile side the first half of August. History shows this. Why do we end up in the same place every year knowing this? :lol:

That said, to me ACE is a side dish.Like cauliflower. It's not the first, second, or third thing that I look to for seasonal impact. Lot's of people like cauliflower though. God Bless America :flag:


Wholeheartedly agree with you!!
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2291 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:40 pm

aspen wrote:If conditions remain hostile into mid-August, then I will be very doubtful that the Atlantic cracks 15 NS or 120 ACE. Unlike 2018/19 and 2021, which either had a slow early season or a massive drought in activity in July through parts of August, 2022 does not have the warm subtropics conductive to the formation of multiple shorties to boost seasonal numbers. 2022’s NS drought looks like it’ll be even longer than 2021’s, and the longer the Atlantic takes to wake up, the lower the ceiling will be for the season as a whole.

Also 2013 comparisons have been going on for longer than normal. You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.

2013 comparisons are not warranted at all right now. Aside from the fact that each season is different, let's not forget that it is late July. We go through this virtually every year; people grow impatient during what is historically an inactive period of the season, only to be shocked when the typical "switch flip" in mid/late August causes the basin to come alive. There's a reason why July 2005 was highly anomalous, conditions needed to line up perfectly to produce Dennis and Emily. Most other years it is not uncommon to have one or two weak systems or nothing at all, even during -ENSO years with generally enhanced favorability.

If it is late August/early September and there is nothing doing then I would be inclined to doubt the possibility of an above average season. Until then, we just need to wait and see how it plays out before rushing to conclusions. Dr. Gray of CSU (may he rest in peace) rung his bell on the 20th of August for a reason, people...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2292 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Spacecoast wrote:6z Shear
non-Nina like shear in Carib mid-Aug...
https://i.ibb.co/YdJDZ7b/gfs-shear-atl.gif/quote]

That looks like El Niño and not La Niña.


That also looks like what 2017 looked like right before Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria. Lots of shear, SAL, and dry air that early August.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2293 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jul 30, 2022 3:57 pm

I think it's crucial to underline that another extremely huge difference between 2013 and now is that 2013 already had 4 systems by now. In fact, 2013's NS count of 14 is decently high and slightly at or above the average NSs in a given season. 2013 did not have any problems with generating quantity; it was quality that was seriously lacking. As wxman57 pointed out I believe sometime earlier, in 2013, the storms were forming on a normal schedule. It was just that the atmosphere had unusually unfavorable conditions for them to really amount to anything.

Let's take a look at what we have seen thus far this year. Alex in June strengthened to near hurricane status, when initial forecasts only called for a mid-strength TS at tops. Bonnie in July developed later than expected, but it definitely seemed to do very well with strengthening, and I do believe that if it wasn't squashed by the ridge, then it could have developed much earlier and have potentially gone on to become a hurricane. While quantity may not be as impressive as 2013 thus far, we've definitely gotten quality, and there were most definitely signs that these storms that formed this year did not struggle as badly as the early season storms in 2013.

There are so many differences between what is going on now and what happened in 2013 that one could literally write a J.R.R Tolkien-style novel on compare/contrast if he/she really wanted to. Between the ENSO state, subtropical sst anomalies, WPAC/EPAC activity, and so forth, the differences vastly outweigh the similarities, if any similarities exist that is. It's also quite fascinating how some individuals will resort to the most extreme seasons to make comparisons with a current season (especially one that so far does not seem climatologically anomalous), whether it is 2005 or 2013. Like, why not compare this season to a much more reasonable analog year such as 1999, which was also an active La Nina year with activity that was suppressed until mid-August? Or 2011? Like, why does it have to be 2013 of all years :lol: ?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2294 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 6:35 pm

aspen wrote:If conditions remain hostile into mid-August, then I will be very doubtful that the Atlantic cracks 15 NS or 120 ACE. Unlike 2018/19 and 2021, which either had a slow early season or a massive drought in activity in July through parts of August, 2022 does not have the warm subtropics conductive to the formation of multiple shorties to boost seasonal numbers. 2022’s NS drought looks like it’ll be even longer than 2021’s, and the longer the Atlantic takes to wake up, the lower the ceiling will be for the season as a whole.

Lol we really need to stop say the sub tropics aren’t warm because they are hella warm where many storms storms formed in 2018 and 2019..

Also 2013 comparisons have been going on for longer than normal. You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2295 Postby WiscoWx02 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 7:41 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I think it's crucial to underline that another extremely huge difference between 2013 and now is that 2013 already had 4 systems by now. In fact, 2013's NS count of 14 is decently high and slightly at or above the average NSs in a given season. 2013 did not have any problems with generating quantity; it was quality that was seriously lacking. As wxman57 pointed out I believe sometime earlier, in 2013, the storms were forming on a normal schedule. It was just that the atmosphere had unusually unfavorable conditions for them to really amount to anything.

Let's take a look at what we have seen thus far this year. Alex in June strengthened to near hurricane status, when initial forecasts only called for a mid-strength TS at tops. Bonnie in July developed later than expected, but it definitely seemed to do very well with strengthening, and I do believe that if it wasn't squashed by the ridge, then it could have developed much earlier and have potentially gone on to become a hurricane. While quantity may not be as impressive as 2013 thus far, we've definitely gotten quality, and there were most definitely signs that these storms that formed this year did not struggle as badly as the early season storms in 2013.

There are so many differences between what is going on now and what happened in 2013 that one could literally write a J.R.R Tolkien-style novel on compare/contrast if he/she really wanted to. Between the ENSO state, subtropical sst anomalies, WPAC/EPAC activity, and so forth, the differences vastly outweigh the similarities, if any similarities exist that is. It's also quite fascinating how some individuals will resort to the most extreme seasons to make comparisons with a current season (especially one that so far does not seem climatologically anomalous), whether it is 2005 or 2013. Like, why not compare this season to a much more reasonable analog year such as 1999, which was also an active La Nina year with activity that was suppressed until mid-August? Or 2011? Like, why does it have to be 2013 of all years :lol: ?



I agree with you 100%. What would be interesting is to look back at the 500 mb heigh anomalies for July, August and September of 2013. My main question is what exactly caused the wave breaking? Was it the position of the ridge, was the ridge more Bermuda dominated thus letting more troughing in near the Azores leading to upper level troughs pinching off more frequently leading to more TUTTs, shear and dry air intrusions at the mid levels? Does this year come any close to that set up? Just a thought. Does anyone know what the archive sites are for height anomalies are at?
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2296 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:20 pm

toad strangler wrote:That said, to me ACE is a side dish.Like cauliflower. It's not the first, second, or third thing that I look to for seasonal impact. Lot's of people like cauliflower though. God Bless America :flag:


GOODNESS steamed cauliflower and broccoli with a little melted butter thrown in is one of God's gifts to humanity!

ok anyways and to the point:

1999:
Image
2001:
Image
2003:
Image
2004:
Image

Frankly I've barely even begun to scratch the surface of the tip of the iceberg and could go on.. for a long time. Activity or lack thereof now, as LarryWx put it earlier, has _NO BEARING_ on the real hurricane season that commences at the bellringing of 20 August

BTW, the Atlantic MDR has exhibited relative warmth literally this entire season. There has not been even a single point where it wasn't anomalously warm.

Image

All I'm saying is if this is what we've got this year, and we have records of seasons like 2000 (since I am seeing this year being thrown around nonstop) being above-average in ACE whilst looking like THIS during ASO, then the bullish forecasts of this season do not appear to be in jeopardy.

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2297 Postby Teban54 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:29 pm

aspen wrote:You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.

This didn't age well :lol:
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2298 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:34 pm

Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.

This didn't age well :lol:


It's one thing if it's May or June.

It's a completely different story when it's August, especially during a period when the favorable velocity pattern phase should set in, and when the GoM has an extremely pronounced LC as well as 29-30 and in some isolated places 31 C skin temperatures.

While we have yet to see what will really unfold by then and if other models hop on, I have a feeling that this could be that moment where the GFS, having given false alarms in the W. Atlantic throughout the past several months, finally gets it right.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2299 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:56 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
aspen wrote:You’d think the models would be showing unambiguous signs of life in the long-range (I’m guessing that GEFS WCar storm is Phantom #67261 this year) and the 2013 comments would be on the decline, but nope.

This didn't age well :lol:


It's one thing if it's May or June.

It's a completely different story when it's August, especially during a period when the favorable velocity pattern phase should set in, and when the GoM has an extremely pronounced LC as well as 29-30 and in some isolated places 31 C skin temperatures.

While we have yet to see what will really unfold by then and if other models hop on, I have a feeling that this could be that moment where the GFS, having given false alarms in the W. Atlantic throughout the past several months, finally gets it right.


Well some of us have been saying for the last couple of months that the Gulf will be a hotspot this year with those 30C+ waters and a very prominent loop current. Lets see if the GFS finally gets it right :D

Image
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

#2300 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 9:02 pm

Looks like a decently large eddy has also recently broken off from the loop current in the center of the Gulf as well. These eddies breaking off and camping are particularly dangerous and have been responsible for the bombing of Katrina, Rita and Ida amongst others.

Image

Image
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