ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates
More trades. The one oddity is these trades have been very central basin or CPAC centric. The EPAC region of the EQ Pacific has anomalous westerlies.
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dexterlabio
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:More trades. The one oddity is these trades have been very central basin or CPAC centric. The EPAC region of the EQ Pacific has anomalous westerlies.
https://i.imgur.com/Ly4BqyD.gif
Could be the reason why WPAC is the one reeling from La Niña more than EPAC.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:More trades. The one oddity is these trades have been very central basin or CPAC centric. The EPAC region of the EQ Pacific has anomalous westerlies.
https://i.imgur.com/Ly4BqyD.gif
Probably has to do with CCKW passage in the EPAC (which is also what causing the current streak of activity). Wondering if the remnants of the downwelling kelvin wave from the spring surfacing in Niño regions 1+2 regions might be accentuating things as well in that regard, although I could be wrong. As the Niña restrengthens into the fall the extent of the easterly wind bursts should eventually propagate towards the eastern equatorial Pacific as well, and that's when we should get a more uniformly cold look across each of the Niño regions.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ntxw wrote:More trades. The one oddity is these trades have been very central basin or CPAC centric. The EPAC region of the EQ Pacific has anomalous westerlies.
https://i.imgur.com/Ly4BqyD.gif
Pretty normal for La Nina. Usually when there's dateline trades, there's westerly anomalies in the EPAC and vice versa.
When you have westerlies over the dateline you get easterlies in the EPAC. When those westerlies create a downwelling KW, those easterlies in the EPAC help spread warm anomalies over Nino 3.4, Nino 3, and Nino 1+2. That would help trigger El Nino.
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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Re: ENSO Updates
Plenty of cold water below now for a moderate event at least. Also the past 7+ days of SOI have gone up from the lower July days. Northern Hemisphere Fall is a favorable time for the dominant ENSO state to grow.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
I'm proud that we here at Storm2k have had a very good handle on one of the world's biggest and difficult phenomenon' over the past 5 years.
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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 8/8/22 Update=Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
This update from CPC was on Monday so for the record of this thread, La Niña gets a bit stronger with the -1.0C reading.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 8/8/22 Update=Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
MJJ ONI was a little higher, -0.9C.
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weeniepatrol
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 8/8/22 Update=Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
Multivariate ENSO Index is down to -2.2 for June/July..
Only 2010 had a lower value.
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC 8/8/22 Update=Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C
cycloneye wrote:This update from CPC was on Monday so for the record of this thread, La Niña gets a bit stronger with the -1.0C reading.
https://i.imgur.com/QLwlwV4.jpg
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
Not unexpected at all, but this means some "ONI warming/cooling trends matter more for Atlantic seasonal activity than raw values" theories that had been floating around in July are no longer applicable to this season.
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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates; CPC August update=La Niña will dominate the rest of 2022 but weakens early 2023
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
11 August 2022
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23.
During the past month, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices indicated renewed cooling, with the latest Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 indices reaching -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies also decreased rapidly in the past month [Fig. 3], reflecting the reemergence of below-average subsurface temperatures across the east-central Pacific Ocean due to an upwelling Kelvin wave propagating eastward [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with an ongoing La Niña.
The most recent IRI plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus, supplemented with the latest models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), concurs that La Niña is the most likely outcome during the fall and winter. While a majority of NMME models suggest that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023, forecasters are split on this outcome resulting in equal forecast probabilities for that season. In summary, La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23 [Fig. 7].
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
11 August 2022
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23.
During the past month, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) expanded across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices indicated renewed cooling, with the latest Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 indices reaching -1.0°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperature anomalies also decreased rapidly in the past month [Fig. 3], reflecting the reemergence of below-average subsurface temperatures across the east-central Pacific Ocean due to an upwelling Kelvin wave propagating eastward [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies persisted across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection and rainfall remained suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with an ongoing La Niña.
The most recent IRI plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus, supplemented with the latest models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), concurs that La Niña is the most likely outcome during the fall and winter. While a majority of NMME models suggest that La Niña will transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023, forecasters are split on this outcome resulting in equal forecast probabilities for that season. In summary, La Niña is expected to continue, with chances for La Niña gradually decreasing from 86% in the coming season to 60% during December-February 2022-23 [Fig. 7].
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Looks like the current IO WWB is over. Hopefully some of these westerly anomalies eventually move into the MC and then WPAC. Would help in weakening the walker cell. Need the SOI start backing off these high positive daily values by late September.
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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC Weekly update of 8/15/22=Niño 3.4 down to 1.1C
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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates=CPC Weekly update of 8/15/22=Niño 3.4 down to 1.1C
I know the calculations are for a negative -PDO, but the way the anomalies are configured within the entire PDO, it looks more and more positive.
2016 PDO configuration looks similar to 2022 if we minus the +PMM. Explains the lackadaisical Atlantic hurricane season so far.
A +PDO to an extent, can enhance EPAC activity regardless of ENSO state. The PDO isn't positive this year because of how warm the waters are in the northern CPAC, but the waters off the NW CONUS coast are very warm. Might be playing a role here.
2016 PDO configuration looks similar to 2022 if we minus the +PMM. Explains the lackadaisical Atlantic hurricane season so far.
A +PDO to an extent, can enhance EPAC activity regardless of ENSO state. The PDO isn't positive this year because of how warm the waters are in the northern CPAC, but the waters off the NW CONUS coast are very warm. Might be playing a role here.
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weeniepatrol
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Iceresistance
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Re: ENSO Updates
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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC 8/29/22 Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to 0.9C
Niño 3.4 warmed to -0.9C from the -1.1C of last week.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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