Southeast Florida Hurricane Season

[AtlanticWind]

Greater than 90 percent of hurricanes that have hit southeast Florida (from the keys up to palm beach county)
have occurred during the approximate 10 week period from August 15th to Oct 25th.

Living my entire life here to me this is when I really watch for systems that are going to affect us .

It really is a relatively short amount of time but can seem longer in an active year.

[Nuno]

I'd be curious to see the numbers pre and post-Betsy or King and compare those date averages. The set up in the last 50 years has clearly benefitted eastern SFL, whereas the western half has taken the brunt of landfalls especially in the last 20 years.

[toad strangler]

I don't think there is any rhyme or reason to it. Randomness sometimes happens in bunches.

[Gums]

Salute!

Yeah, Toad, just when I was buying into the ENSO having an effect on number of storms in the GoM, no dice. The theory being a Nino reduced the storms in the Gulf. But with a weak Nina, we haven't really been experiencing any more threats than the years with a decent Nino.

Up here in the Panhandle, we're not complaining except for the long dry spring.

Gums sends...

[AtlanticWind]

Another nugget I noticed is when SE Florida has been hit by a hurricane in August( which is quite rare actually)
It was after low rainfall in July. Examples were Andrew 92, Katrina 05, Hurricane in 1949 and a couple others.
Obviously there are low rainfall in Julys where we are not hit .

Not nearly enough examples to draw any conclusions but just wondering if stronger High pressure
in July that pushes our thunderstorms to the west coast of Florida often continues into August and sets
up a steering pattern that lends itself into a heightened risk.

[Nimbus]

Another nugget I noticed is when SE Florida has been hit by a hurricane in August( which is quite rare actually)
It was after low rainfall in July. Examples were Andrew 92, Katrina 05, Hurricane in 1949 and a couple others.
Obviously there are low rainfall in Julys where we are not hit .

Not nearly enough examples to draw any conclusions but just wondering if stronger High pressure
in July that pushes our thunderstorms to the west coast of Florida often continues into August and sets
up a steering pattern that lends itself into a heightened risk.

Andrew 92 was a difficult to forecast trough split.
I think there may have been a persistent TUTT situation east of Florida keeping the storms from developing in July.
Similar situation this year but there isn't much of a cause and effect relationship except as a memory trigger.

[Patrick99]

It'd be interesting to go back and search for similarities in some of the big SE FL hurricane seasons (if that were possible). 1926, 1928, 1945, 1960, 1965, 1992, 2004, 2017 (among others). 1965 and 1992 always seem pretty similar to me, adjacent to or during an El Nino, kinda junky seasons apart from one big storm that hit SE FL and Louisiana, in both cases storms out in the open Atlantic that were either past or about to pass the usual recurve/Bermuda latitude, but then were subject to an abrupt pattern change and captured by a strong high, driven due W or even WSW into the peninsula and Gulf. The other storms that have hit SFL have seemed to occur in more active seasons for the most part.

[Nuno]

One has to remember that storms generally don't approach SEFL from due west. Andrew was an anomaly in this regard. Betsy dove SW, as did Katrina (after coming up NW in the Bahamas). Jeanne is another storm that came due W towards south-central FL but also was tricky due to a blocking high forcing it to loop back westwards. Storms have to approach SFL from a perfect angle (think 1926 or Irma) in which they can try to avoid the Antilles, and even Irma got herself stuck on Cuba at the end. Lots of things have to go just right, and they rarely often do, luckily to our benefit.

[Spacecoast]

I'd be curious to see the numbers pre and post-Betsy or King and compare those date averages. The set up in the last 50 years has clearly benefitted eastern SFL, whereas the western half has taken the brunt of landfalls especially in the last 20 years.

over the last 72 years, while ACE, and # of Hurricanes have trended upwards, Florida landfalls have remained steady in absolute terms.....


Landfalls in US / Florida (as a % of hurricanes each year) has been trending downwards, for some unexplained reason:

~ 10% of each season's Hurricanes landfall in FL, while 28% have US landfall.

It seems there would be very little difference (impact-wise) whether a storm tracks east across the Glades from the south-west coast, or west from the south-east coast.

[Blown Away]

Dry July for coastal SFL, which is not necessarily a sure indicator of a pending tropical system. Generally IMO, when coastal SFL has an above average wet June then average to below average dry July/Aug it results in a tropical system bringing rebounding rainfall during the hurricane season, no idea if this tropical system is a TW or Major Hurricane. Just a general pattern I've observed over many years of SFL weather. Obviously it doesn't apply every time, but many.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/heEDSbz.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/3vn6kV2.jpg

Dry July for coastal SFL, which is not necessarily a sure indicator of a pending tropical system. Generally IMO, when coastal SFL has an above average wet June then average to below average dry July/Aug it results in a tropical system bringing rebounding rainfall during the hurricane season, no idea if this tropical system is a TW or Major Hurricane. Just a general pattern I've observed over many years of SFL weather. Obviously it doesn't apply every time, but many.

Does it change though if June was dry other than the TS?

[Blown Away]

Years Analyzed: 2001-2022
Criteria: Coastal SFL Below Average May rainfall + Significantly above average June rainfall + Average to below average July rainfall = 2022, 2017, 2005
2004: Didn't meet above criteria, but that year has to stand on it's own IMO.
** Very unscientific and small sample size, just a general observation.

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/heEDSbz.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/3vn6kV2.jpg

Dry July for coastal SFL, which is not necessarily a sure indicator of a pending tropical system. Generally IMO, when coastal SFL has an above average wet June then average to below average dry July/Aug it results in a tropical system bringing rebounding rainfall during the hurricane season, no idea if this tropical system is a TW or Major Hurricane. Just a general pattern I've observed over many years of SFL weather. Obviously it doesn't apply every time, but many.

If you take out that no-named storm in early June, it has been a dry rainy season for South Florida. Usually you get a few days here and there with SW winds pushing the storms towards the east coast. This year they are all well inland and really over southwest Florida every single day. This year reminds me a lot of the pattern we saw in 2017 which did feature ridges which the models underestimated. It is concerning how the east to southeast wind pattern is so persistent this summer. We need some kind of tropical system to make up the deficit. Hope that is not a major hurricane from the east come later in Aug or September.

[skyline385]

Dry July for coastal SFL, which is not necessarily a sure indicator of a pending tropical system. Generally IMO, when coastal SFL has an above average wet June then average to below average dry July/Aug it results in a tropical system bringing rebounding rainfall during the hurricane season, no idea if this tropical system is a TW or Major Hurricane. Just a general pattern I've observed over many years of SFL weather. Obviously it doesn't apply every time, but many.

June 2022 map is heavily skewed because of Alex imo. Meanwhile 2017 had no tropical systems impacting SFL in June and July and still produced a ridiculous amount of rainfall. Look at the rainfall amount in June 2017 in particular. If we are going by past rainfall data for June and July then I think it's safe to say 2022 is pretty different from 2017.

[SFLcane]

Via Michael Lowry from Eye on the Tropics



If you live in South Florida long enough, you’re bound to develop a theory on why and when a hurricane will strike. When May is dry, look out. If a storm passes through the Hebert Box, we’re in trouble. And these are just the theories from meteorologists (dry May courtesy of former Miami National Weather Service veteran Jim Lushine and the Hebert Box courtesy of NWS and NHC forecaster Paul Hebert). They’re fun and make for good fodder, but most theories are only a step removed from the proverbial groundhog or Old Farmer’s Almanac.

There are, however, a few rules of thumb about South Florida hurricanes that we can learn from looking back at the record books (for this discussion, South Florida is south of Lee County on the west coast and Palm Beach County on the east coast). Going back to 1851, virtually all – 95 percent – of South Florida hurricanes occurred in August, September, and October. A hurricane did move through the Keys and Miami-Dade County in June of 1906, but this and a late July hurricane in 1933 are the only two hurricanes on record to impact South Florida prior to August. What’s perhaps most intriguing about South Florida’s long hurricane history is more hurricanes have been observed in October than in any other month. Hurricanes are more common in October here because fall cold fronts more frequently make it into the central and southern Gulf of Mexico, often steering storms our way.




The hurricanes that impact South Florida tend to form either in the deep tropics south of 20 degrees north latitude when east of the islands, south of 25 degrees latitude but north of the islands, or in the western Caribbean. Nearly all hurricanes on record to strike South Florida in August and September formed north or east of the islands; of the 23 hurricanes on record to strike South Florida in October, all but two formed in the western Caribbean.

But even these general rules have their limits. An oddball storm that formed about 200 miles east of Bermuda on October 30, 1935, turned southward in November and struck Miami on November 4th. This was one of only two South Florida hurricanes to form north of Miami and is the only South Florida November hurricane landfall on record.

Looking back at South Florida’s hurricane history helps us to better understand the threats we face during hurricane season. June and July hurricanes in South Florida are rare. Early August hurricanes are uncommon (3 in 4 South Florida August hurricanes struck after August 15th). The big months for hurricane impacts in South Florida are September and October, with October – especially middle to late October – turning late season hurricanes our direction.

I can’t tell you whether the dry weather we’ve had since mid-June means anything for the rest of hurricane season, but if you ask your neighbor, I’m certain they’ll have a theory, and I know it’ll be more entertaining than mine.

[toad strangler]

Via Michael Lowry from Eye on the Tropics

https://i.postimg.cc/dQ6y9SwV/hurricanes.png

If you live in South Florida long enough, you’re bound to develop a theory on why and when a hurricane will strike. When May is dry, look out. If a storm passes through the Hebert Box, we’re in trouble. And these are just the theories from meteorologists (dry May courtesy of former Miami National Weather Service veteran Jim Lushine and the Hebert Box courtesy of NWS and NHC forecaster Paul Hebert). They’re fun and make for good fodder, but most theories are only a step removed from the proverbial groundhog or Old Farmer’s Almanac.

There are, however, a few rules of thumb about South Florida hurricanes that we can learn from looking back at the record books (for this discussion, South Florida is south of Lee County on the west coast and Palm Beach County on the east coast). Going back to 1851, virtually all – 95 percent – of South Florida hurricanes occurred in August, September, and October. A hurricane did move through the Keys and Miami-Dade County in June of 1906, but this and a late July hurricane in 1933 are the only two hurricanes on record to impact South Florida prior to August. What’s perhaps most intriguing about South Florida’s long hurricane history is more hurricanes have been observed in October than in any other month. Hurricanes are more common in October here because fall cold fronts more frequently make it into the central and southern Gulf of Mexico, often steering storms our way.

https://i.postimg.cc/d0Fspw9P/hurricane.png


The hurricanes that impact South Florida tend to form either in the deep tropics south of 20 degrees north latitude when east of the islands, south of 25 degrees latitude but north of the islands, or in the western Caribbean. Nearly all hurricanes on record to strike South Florida in August and September formed north or east of the islands; of the 23 hurricanes on record to strike South Florida in October, all but two formed in the western Caribbean.

But even these general rules have their limits. An oddball storm that formed about 200 miles east of Bermuda on October 30, 1935, turned southward in November and struck Miami on November 4th. This was one of only two South Florida hurricanes to form north of Miami and is the only South Florida November hurricane landfall on record.

Looking back at South Florida’s hurricane history helps us to better understand the threats we face during hurricane season. June and July hurricanes in South Florida are rare. Early August hurricanes are uncommon (3 in 4 South Florida August hurricanes struck after August 15th). The big months for hurricane impacts in South Florida are September and October, with October – especially middle to late October – turning late season hurricanes our direction.

I can’t tell you whether the dry weather we’ve had since mid-June means anything for the rest of hurricane season, but if you ask your neighbor, I’m certain they’ll have a theory, and I know it’ll be more entertaining than mine.

That map seems to include Jeanne. The loop sticks out like a sore thumb. That wasn't a S FL strike.

[Spacecoast]

S. Florida had more activity during Neutral years than La Nina years...

All Years 1950 - 2021, Total of 55 TC's. (15 Hurr, 8 Majors)

La Nina: 16 Total (4 Hurr, 1 Major)

Neutral: 22 Total (7 Hurr, 5 Major)

El Nino: 17 Total (2 Hurr, 2 Major), (including Ivan,which circled back as an extropical)

[toad strangler]

S. Florida had more activity during Neutral years than La Nina years...

All Years 1950 - 2021, Total of 55 TC's. (15 Hurr, 8 Majors)

La Nina: 16 Total (4 Hurr, 1 Major)
https://i.ibb.co/TTvNZ3f/disk.jpg
Neutral: 22 Total (7 Hurr, 5 Major)
https://i.ibb.co/jr5snm9/disi.jpg
El Nino: 17 Total (2 Hurr, 2 Major), (including Ivan,which circled back as an extropical)
https://i.ibb.co/PctjhTh/disj.jpg

Interesting. So really, it's LaWHOCARES. We can get hit any year late August through October,

[LarryWx]

Via Michael Lowry from Eye on the Tropics

https://i.postimg.cc/dQ6y9SwV/hurricanes.png

If you live in South Florida long enough, you’re bound to develop a theory on why and when a hurricane will strike. When May is dry, look out. If a storm passes through the Hebert Box, we’re in trouble. And these are just the theories from meteorologists (dry May courtesy of former Miami National Weather Service veteran Jim Lushine and the Hebert Box courtesy of NWS and NHC forecaster Paul Hebert). They’re fun and make for good fodder, but most theories are only a step removed from the proverbial groundhog or Old Farmer’s Almanac.

There are, however, a few rules of thumb about South Florida hurricanes that we can learn from looking back at the record books (for this discussion, South Florida is south of Lee County on the west coast and Palm Beach County on the east coast). Going back to 1851, virtually all – 95 percent – of South Florida hurricanes occurred in August, September, and October. A hurricane did move through the Keys and Miami-Dade County in June of 1906, but this and a late July hurricane in 1933 are the only two hurricanes on record to impact South Florida prior to August. What’s perhaps most intriguing about South Florida’s long hurricane history is more hurricanes have been observed in October than in any other month. Hurricanes are more common in October here because fall cold fronts more frequently make it into the central and southern Gulf of Mexico, often steering storms our way.

https://i.postimg.cc/d0Fspw9P/hurricane.png


The hurricanes that impact South Florida tend to form either in the deep tropics south of 20 degrees north latitude when east of the islands, south of 25 degrees latitude but north of the islands, or in the western Caribbean. Nearly all hurricanes on record to strike South Florida in August and September formed north or east of the islands; of the 23 hurricanes on record to strike South Florida in October, all but two formed in the western Caribbean.

But even these general rules have their limits. An oddball storm that formed about 200 miles east of Bermuda on October 30, 1935, turned southward in November and struck Miami on November 4th. This was one of only two South Florida hurricanes to form north of Miami and is the only South Florida November hurricane landfall on record.

Looking back at South Florida’s hurricane history helps us to better understand the threats we face during hurricane season. June and July hurricanes in South Florida are rare. Early August hurricanes are uncommon (3 in 4 South Florida August hurricanes struck after August 15th). The big months for hurricane impacts in South Florida are September and October, with October – especially middle to late October – turning late season hurricanes our direction.

I can’t tell you whether the dry weather we’ve had since mid-June means anything for the rest of hurricane season, but if you ask your neighbor, I’m certain they’ll have a theory, and I know it’ll be more entertaining than mine.

That map seems to include Jeanne. The loop sticks out like a sore thumb. That wasn't a S FL strike.

Good catch. It also includes Frances. In addition, it includes storm #2 of 1939, which landfalled at Stuart:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_At ... ane_season

Also, it even includes #4 of 1871, which hit further north near present day Vero Beach:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1871_At ... ane_season

So, perhaps it is including all landfalling hurricanes as far north as Vero Beach.

I was able to find these others by looking at the origin points in addition to other parts of the tracks.

[Blown Away]

Via Michael Lowry from Eye on the Tropics

https://i.postimg.cc/dQ6y9SwV/hurricanes.png

If you live in South Florida long enough, you’re bound to develop a theory on why and when a hurricane will strike. When May is dry, look out. If a storm passes through the Hebert Box, we’re in trouble. And these are just the theories from meteorologists (dry May courtesy of former Miami National Weather Service veteran Jim Lushine and the Hebert Box courtesy of NWS and NHC forecaster Paul Hebert). They’re fun and make for good fodder, but most theories are only a step removed from the proverbial groundhog or Old Farmer’s Almanac.

There are, however, a few rules of thumb about South Florida hurricanes that we can learn from looking back at the record books (for this discussion, South Florida is south of Lee County on the west coast and Palm Beach County on the east coast). Going back to 1851, virtually all – 95 percent – of South Florida hurricanes occurred in August, September, and October. A hurricane did move through the Keys and Miami-Dade County in June of 1906, but this and a late July hurricane in 1933 are the only two hurricanes on record to impact South Florida prior to August. What’s perhaps most intriguing about South Florida’s long hurricane history is more hurricanes have been observed in October than in any other month. Hurricanes are more common in October here because fall cold fronts more frequently make it into the central and southern Gulf of Mexico, often steering storms our way.

https://i.postimg.cc/d0Fspw9P/hurricane.png


The hurricanes that impact South Florida tend to form either in the deep tropics south of 20 degrees north latitude when east of the islands, south of 25 degrees latitude but north of the islands, or in the western Caribbean. Nearly all hurricanes on record to strike South Florida in August and September formed north or east of the islands; of the 23 hurricanes on record to strike South Florida in October, all but two formed in the western Caribbean.

But even these general rules have their limits. An oddball storm that formed about 200 miles east of Bermuda on October 30, 1935, turned southward in November and struck Miami on November 4th. This was one of only two South Florida hurricanes to form north of Miami and is the only South Florida November hurricane landfall on record.

Looking back at South Florida’s hurricane history helps us to better understand the threats we face during hurricane season. June and July hurricanes in South Florida are rare. Early August hurricanes are uncommon (3 in 4 South Florida August hurricanes struck after August 15th). The big months for hurricane impacts in South Florida are September and October, with October – especially middle to late October – turning late season hurricanes our direction.

I can’t tell you whether the dry weather we’ve had since mid-June means anything for the rest of hurricane season, but if you ask your neighbor, I’m certain they’ll have a theory, and I know it’ll be more entertaining than mine.

That map seems to include Jeanne. The loop sticks out like a sore thumb. That wasn't a S FL strike.

Good catch. It also includes Frances. In addition, it includes storm #2 of 1939, which landfalled at Stuart:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_At ... ane_season

Also, it even includes #4 of 1871, which hit further north near present day Vero Beach:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1871_At ... ane_season

So, perhaps it is including all landfalling hurricanes as far north as Vero Beach.

I was able to find these others by looking at the origin points in addition to other parts of the tracks.

Technically Palm Beach County is the north boundary for "SFL" but I think when it comes to SFL hurricanes everything south of Ft. Pierce/Vero is kinda lumped into SFL b/c from Vero to Jax landfalls are mostly non existent. Graphic is not technically right, but it kinda is.