2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[NDG]

I posted this tweet in the experts thread but also brought it here for discussion from the members.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554514285849505792

A sign that the CSU team may not lower numbers much if any.

[skyline385]

The hurricanes are coming folks.. Watch this!

FWIW, mean ensemble wind plots will always converge to zero this far out by design. Several members including me have posted explanations for it in this thread.

[cycloneye]

Andy has a good question.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1554515211973009409

[NDG]

Waiting for that mid August switch patiently, but hopefully not a repeat of 1950 for FL.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1554449256584396800




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1554450840785526784

[skyline385]

I posted this tweet in the experts thread but also brought it here for discussion from the members.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554514285849505792

A sign that the CSU team may not lower numbers much if any.

IMO it’s a sign that numbers are getting lowered. There are tons of other factors at play but last year Phil went with 137 at this point. And we are above it but well below the hyperactive SST temps. So i think he is going to end up with around 155-160 for his prediction.

[SFLcane]

The hurricanes are coming folks.. Watch this!

https://i.postimg.cc/cCpfKbRR/shear.gif

FWIW, mean ensemble wind plots will always converge to zero this far out by design. Several members including me have posted explanations for it in this thread.

Well not necessarily but the spread over time does tend to smooth things out. We will see

[skyline385]

Waiting for that mid August switch patiently, but hopefully not a repeat of 1950 for FL.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1554449256584396800




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1554450840785526784

Those similarities are pretty concerning, do not need a repeat of King. It would probably knock the power grid for a good amount of SFL and Central FL.

[cycloneye]

I posted this tweet in the experts thread but also brought it here for discussion from the members.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1554514285849505792

A sign that the CSU team may not lower numbers much if any.

IMO it’s a sign that numbers are getting lowered. There are tons of other factors at play but last year Phil went with 137 at this point. And we are above it but well below the hyperactive SST temps. So i think he is going to end up with around 155-160 for his prediction.

Those ACE numbers are too high.

[skyline385]

Not directly related but they deployed the saildrone for the GOM today, let’s hope we get some good footage from it in addition to better model inputs.

 https://twitter.com/jimcantore/status/1554523775483478016

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1554631311096160256

[Chris90]

I don't necessarily think the ACE numbers are too high. Klotzbach said the SST profile is tracking between that of above-average to hyperactive, so while maybe not as impressive as a 2005 or 2017, the SST profile plus the analogs that have been mentioned suggest the potential for a pretty high ACE year.

1950: 211 ACE.
1998: 182 ACE.
1999: 177 ACE.

I don't think a 20 storm count is going to happen, this season hasn't been spamming with early season strugglers like the past couple of years, but I do think this could be one of those years with a lower storm count but 5 or 6 majors with hefty MDR ACE generation.

If we're looking at things that are "off" with the tropics, I think the WPAC is the biggest display of something off. The basin has been anemic for a couple years now (as compared to its average), and this year has been particularly slow. I think a return to warm ENSO at some point in the next 2 years is inevitable, and the WPAC and EPAC will start to return to top form, but I think the ATL is probably going to turn on in a couple weeks, and I think this slow WPAC, with only 1998 being slower by this point, could be an indicator in favor of the ATL. The EPAC has been having an impressive year considering the niña and PDO, but I think that's just decent waves making it over there and finding decent enough conditions to form. I think when the ATL is ready it'll start using those waves and stop donating them to the EPAC, therefore there won't be a lot of competition.

But hey, if the ATL wants to stay asleep and the EPAC stay up, I'm cool. Give me Darby 2, 3, 4, 5. I'd prefer it.

[skyline385]

Looking at the developing SST pattern and the westerlies being predicted by EPS along with the MJO phase 1/2 coming up, I think August end might have potential to be very active. Daniel probably has a good shot at being the first major of the season.

[Teban54]

Looking at the developing SST pattern and the westerlies being predicted by EPS along with the MJO phase 1/2 coming up, I think August end might have potential to be very active. Daniel probably has a good shot at being the first major of the season.

https://i.imgur.com/2v0Mj3N.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/eps_u850aMean_atl_fh120-360-1.gif

Minor correction, it's Danielle, the female name. Daniel is on the EPAC naming list.

[weeniepatrol]

Another way of visualizing it.

[skyline385]

Very interesting thread on possible aliasing artifacts on the ECMWF because of its spectral grid model, GFS used to be on a spectral grid as well before switching to a Finite Volume (FV3) model in 2019.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1554772082533097472

[InfernoFlameCat]

The amount of knowledge Papin has blows my mind. The obscure details he picks up on is legendary. He has the intuition and knowledge about large scale systems like no one else. Is an example.

[skyline385]

The amount of knowledge Papin has blows my mind. The obscure details he picks up on is legendary. He has the intuition and knowledge about large scale systems like no one else. Is an example.

Yes i enjoy his Twitter threads because he explains everything so well, one of the best wxtwitter accounts to follow imo.

I asked him if this could be potentially responsible for its recent MDR bias as well as the model seems to forming precip. waves which are not physically possible. I will try and see if it can be replicated in the recent ECMWF runs for the Atlantic.

[SFLcane]

If mid August were going to be active we would see signs on the models by now. I mean the large-scale velocity potential says we should be flipping but I don't see signs of it yet. We will see

[tolakram]

Last year the models had issues picking up activity at longer range, we'll see. I think mid August is still too early, I expect a slop storm first, west, followed by conditions improving west to east. Not any ground breaking analysis, just that it's usually how it seems to happen. Harvey being a textbook example of this, a sloppy storm that ran right into improved conditions as it moved west.

[cycloneye]

Another way of visualizing it.

https://i.imgur.com/QEY52GW.png

Great graphic. Is there a link to it?